Research Article
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Determination of model maps for the potential distribution of Anatolian black pine (Pinus nigra Arnold.) in natural forest areas in the Central Black Sea region

Year 2024, Volume: 17 Issue: 2, 112 - 120, 15.08.2024

Özdemir Şentürk Serkan Gülsoy Mehmet Güvenç Negiz Fatih Karakaya

https://doi.org/10.46309/biodicon.2024.1350037

Abstract

Özdemir ŞENTÜRK 1*, Serkan GÜLSOY 2, Mehmet Güvenç NEGİZ 3, Fatih KARAKAYA 2

ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2513-6070; https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2011-8324; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6338-3307; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6534-6382

1 Gölhisar Vocational School, Departmant of Forestry, Burdur Mehmet Akif Ersoy University, Gölhisar, Burdur, Turkey
2 Faculty of Forestry, Department of Forest Engineering, Isparta University of Applied Sciences, Isparta, Turkey
3 Sütçüler Prof. Dr. Hasan GÜRBÜZ Vocational School, Department of Forest Engineering, Isparta University of Applied Sciences, Sütçüler, Isparta, Turkey

*Corresponding author: e-mail: osenturk@mehmetakif.edu.tr

Abstract
The purpose of this study was to determine potential distribution modeling and mapping of Anatolian black pine in the Vezirköprü district. Presence / absence data of the species was collected from 586 sample areas. Environmental variables (elevation, slope, bedrock, radiation index etc.) were obtained from the digital maps. In addition, climatic variables were downloaded from WorldClim database. Generalized Additive Model and Classification and Regression Tree were used for potential distribution modeling of the species. The validation value of Generalized Additive Model was 0.84 while the cross-validation test value was found to be 0.82. Also, the ROC values of the tree model were found to be 0.804 for the training data set and 0.750 for the testing data set. According to the Classification and Regression Tree method, the locations above 650 m and without meta-sandstone are suitable for the potential distribution of the species. Under the condition that there is meta-sandstone, the areas where the temperature is between 7.6-11.0 °C and the slope degree is more than 23% coincide with the potential distribution of the species. Also, Generalized Additive Model showed that places where gabbro, ophiolitic melange, serpentine, and mixed material were seen as main bedrock type, sloping sites where average elevation was from 600 to 1150 m and temperature is between approximately 8.5-11.3 °C were the most suitable conditions for the potential distribution of the species in the district. In both models, it was determined that especially rock formations, climatic variable, and altitude are effective in the potential distribution of the species. On the other hand, although there are some differences in the variables in the models, the potential distribution maps formed by these variables overlapped quite. As a result, the information obtained in the study is important for the forestry practices such as afforestation, regeneration and the monitoring the species under future climate change conditions.

Keywords: generalized additive model; classification and regression tree; species distribution model; Vezirköprü

Keywords

generalized additive model classification and regression tree species distribution model Vezirköprü

Supporting Institution

Süleyman Demirel University Scientific Research Projects Coordination Unit (SDÜ BAP)

Project Number

Project No: BAP-3548-YL1-13

Thanks

We acknowledge to Süleyman Demirel University Scientific Research Projects Coordination Unit (SDÜ BAP) for providing financial support (Project No: BAP-3548-YL1-13). This article is derived from the Master Thesis by Fatih Karakaya. This study titled “Determination of model maps for the potential distribution of Anatolian black pine (Pinus nigra Arnold.) in natural forest areas in the Black Sea region” was published as a summary paper in International Symposium on New Horizons in Forestry (ISFOR 2017 / Isparta – Turkey).

References

  • References
  • [1] Leal Filho, W., Azeiteiro, U. M., Balogun, A. L., Setti, A. F. F., Mucova, S. A., Ayal, D., ... & Oguge, N. O. (2021). The influence of ecosystems services depletion to climate change adaptation efforts in Africa. Science of The Total Environment, 779, https://doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.146414.
  • [2] Başkent, E., Z. (2018). A review of the development of the multiple use forest management planning concept. International Forestry Review, 20(3), 296-313. https://doi:10.1505/146554818824063023.
  • [3] Valavi, R., Guillera‐Arroita, G., Lahoz‐Monfort, J. J., & Elith, J. (2022). Predictive performance of presence‐only species distribution models: a benchmark study with reproducible code. Ecological Monographs, 92(1). https://doi.org/10.1002/ecm.1486.
  • [4] Özkan, K., Sentürk, Ö., Mert, A., & Negiz, M. G. (2015). Modeling and mapping potential distribution of Crimean juniper (Juniperus excelsa Bieb.) using correlative approaches. Journal of Environmental Biology, 36(1), 9.
  • [5] Şentürk, Ö., Gülsoy, S., Tümer, İ. (2019). Potential Distribution Modeling and Mapping of Brutian Pine Stands in the Inner Parts of the Middle Black Sea Region in Turkey. Polish Journal of Environmental Studies, 28(1), 321-327. https://doi:10.15244/pjoes/81682.
  • [6] GDF. (2015). Forest of Turkey–2015. General Directorate of Forestry. Forest Management and Planning Department, p 32. Ankara.
  • [7] Güner, Ş.T., Çömez, A., Özkan, K., Karataş, R., & Çelik, N. (2016). Türkiye’deki karaçam ağaçlandırmalarının verimlilik modellemesi. Journal of the Faculty of Forestry Istanbul University, 66(1), 159-172. https://doi.org/10.17099/jffiu.18731.
  • [8] Yılmaz, Y., & Tüysüz, O. (1984). Kastamonu-Boyabat-Vezirköprü-Tosya arasındaki bölgenin jeolojisi (Ilgaz-Kargı masiflerinin etüdü). MTA Raporu, p 275, (In Turkish).
  • [9] Öztürk, M. Z, Çetinkaya, G., & Aydın, S. (2017). Climate Types of Turkey According to Köppen-Geiger Climate Classification. Journal of Geography, 35, 17-27. https://doi.org/10.26650/JGEOG295515.
  • [10] Bunce, R. G. H., Barr, C. J., & Whittaker, H. A. (1983). A stratification system for ecological sampling. In: Fuller, R. M., (ed.) Ecological mapping from ground, air and space. Cambridge, Institute of Terrestrial Ecology, 39-46. (ITE Symposium, 10).
  • [11] Jenness, J. (2006). Topographic Position Index (tpi_jen. avx) extension for ArcView 3. x version 1.2. Jenness Enterprises, Flagstaff.
  • [12] Roberts. D. W., and Cooper, S. V., 1989. Concepts and techniques of vegetation mapping. In Land Classifications Based on Vegetation: Applications for Resource Management. USDA Forest Service GTR INT-257, Ogden, UT, pp 90-96.
  • [13] Hijmans, R. J., Cameron, S. E., Parra J. L, Jones, P. G., & Jarvis, A. (2005). Very high resolution interpolated climate surfaces for global land areas. International Journal of Climatology, 25(15), 1965-1978. https://doi: 10.1002/joc.1276.
  • [14] Guisan, A., Edwards, T. C., & Hastie, T. (2002). Generalized linear and generalized additive models in studies of species distributions: setting the scene. Ecological Modelling, 157(2), 89-100.
  • [15] Lehmann, A., Overton, J. M., & Leathwick, J. R. (2002). RASP: Generalized Regression Analysis and Spatial Prediction. Ecological Modelling, 157(2), 189-207.
  • [16] De'ath, G., & Fabricius, K. E. (2000). Classification and regression trees: a powerful yet simple technique for ecological data analysis. Ecology, 81(11), 3178-3192.
  • [17] Özkan, K. (2014). Hierarchical modelling based ecological land classification in a forest district of Mediterranean region, Turkey. Environmental Engineering & Management Journal (EEMJ), 13(4).
  • [18] Çepel, N. (1995). Forest Ecology. İstanbul University, Faculty of Forestry Press, No: 426, İstanbul:TR.
  • [19] Atalay, İ., & Efe, R. (2015). Türkiye Biyocoğrafyası. İzmir: Meta Basım Matbaacılık.
  • [20] Gülsoy, S., Şentürk, Ö., & Tümer, İ. (2017). Modeling the potential distribution of Anatolian black pine in the inner parts of Central Black Sea environment. Journal of Environmental Biology, 38(5-SI), 945-954. https://doi: 10.22438/jeb/38/5(SI)/GM-11.
  • [21] Atalay, I., & Efe, R. (2012). Ecological attributes and distribution of Anatolian black pine [Pinus nigra Arnold. subsp. pallasiana Lamb. Holmboe] in Turkey. Journal of Environmental Biology, 33, 509-519.
  • [22] Kılınç, A., Anıl, M. (2000). Excavation and Reinforcement Applications Using Rock Mass Classification in T2 (Ayran) Tunnel on the Adana-Gaziantep Motorway. Scientific Minning Journal, 39(2), 3-10.
  • [23] Güner, Ş., Çömez, A., & Karataş, R., (2011). Relationships between some environmental characteristics and site index of Anatolian black pine (Pinus nigra Arnold. subsp. pallasina (Lamb.) Holmboe) plantation areas in the Eskisehir and Afyonkarahisar Provinces. Rebuplic of Turkey Ministry of Environment and Forestry. Research Institute for Forest Soils And Ecology, The Ministry of Environment and Forestry Research Institute for Forest Soils and Ecology Publications, (434-4), 83.
  • [24] Çepel, N. (1988). Forest Ecology. İstanbul University, Faculty of Forestry Press, No: 389, İstanbul: TR.
  • [25] Negiz, M. G., Çınar, K., & Aygül, E. Ö. (2019) Ecological Evaluations on The Productivity and Distribution Characteristics of Black Pine (Pinus nigra Arnold) Species: Example of Isparta-Yenişarbademli. Bilge International Journal of Science and Technology Research, 3(2), 189-200. https://doi.org/10.30516.

Orta Karadeniz bölgesindeki doğal orman alanlarında Anadolu karaçamının (Pinus nigra Arnold.) potansiyel dağılım model ve haritalarının belirlenmesi

Year 2024, Volume: 17 Issue: 2, 112 - 120, 15.08.2024

Özdemir Şentürk Serkan Gülsoy Mehmet Güvenç Negiz Fatih Karakaya

https://doi.org/10.46309/biodicon.2024.1350037

Abstract

Determination of model maps for the potential distribution of Anatolian black pine (Pinus nigra Arnold.) in natural forest areas in the Central Black Sea region

Özdemir ŞENTÜRK 1*, Serkan GÜLSOY 2, Mehmet Güvenç NEGİZ 3, Fatih KARAKAYA 2

ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2513-6070; https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2011-8324; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6338-3307; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6534-6382

1 Gölhisar Vocational School, Departmant of Forestry, Burdur Mehmet Akif Ersoy University, Gölhisar, Burdur, Turkey
2 Faculty of Forestry, Department of Forest Engineering, Isparta University of Applied Sciences, Isparta, Turkey
3 Sütçüler Prof. Dr. Hasan GÜRBÜZ Vocational School, Department of Forest Engineering, Isparta University of Applied Sciences, Sütçüler, Isparta, Turkey

*Corresponding author: e-mail: osenturk@mehmetakif.edu.tr


Orta Karadeniz bölgesindeki doğal orman alanlarında Anadolu karaçamının (Pinus nigra Arnold.) potansiyel dağılım model ve haritalarının belirlenmesi

Özet
Bu çalışma Vezirköprü yöresinde Anadolu karaçamının potansiyel dağılımının modellemesi ve haritalaması amacıyla gerçekleştirilmiştir. 586 örnek alanda türün var / yok verisi toplanmıştır. Sayısal yükseklik modeli kullanılarak çevresel değişkenler (yükselti, eğim, anakaya, radyasyon indeksi vb.) elde edilmiştir. Ayrıca, WorldClim veri tabanında iklim değişkenleri indirilmiştir. Türün potansiyel dağılım modellemesinde Genelleştirilmiş Eklemeli Model ve Sınıflandırma (GAM) ve Regresyon Ağacı Tekniği (CART) kullanılmıştır. GAM modele ait geçerlilik oranı 0,84, çapraz geçerlilik katsayısı ise 0,82 bulunmuştur. Ayrıca, CART modelin geçerlilik (ROC) değerleri eğitim verisi için 0,804, test verisi için ise 0,750 bulunmuştur. CART yöntemine göre, 650 m’nin üzerindeki yükseltiler ve meta-kumtaşının olmadığı yerler türün potansiyel dağılımına uygundur. Metakumtaşının olduğu kısımlarda ise, yıllık ortalama sıcaklığın 7,6 – 11,0 ° C arasında ve eğimin %23’ten büyük olduğu yerler türün potansiyel dağılım alanlarını oluşturmaktadır. GAM yönteminde gabro, ofiyolitik melanj, serpantin ve karışık anakaya tiplerinin olduğu, eğimli arazi yapısına sahip 600 – 1150 m arasındaki yükseltiler ve yıllık ortalama sıcaklığının 8,5 – 11,3 °C olduğu yerlerde türün potansiyel dağılımı ile örtüşmüştür. Her iki yöntemde anakaya tipleri, iklim ve yükselti değişenlerinin türün yöredeki potansiyel dağılım alanlarında daha etkili olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Modellerde yer alan değişkenlerde bir takım farklılıklar olmasına rağmen, elde edilen potansiyel dağılım haritaları oldukça örtüşmüştür. Sonuç olarak, çalışmada elde edilen bilgiler türün ağaçlandırma ve gençleştirme gibi ormancılık uygulamaları ile iklim değişimi gibi süreçlerde izlenmesi için önem arz etmektedir.

Anahtar kelimeler: genelleştirilmiş eklemeli model, sınıflandırma ve regresyon ağacı, tür dağılım modellemesi; Vezirköprü

Keywords

genelleştirilmiş eklemeli model sınıflandırma ve regresyon ağacı tür dağılım modellemesi Vezirköprü

Project Number

Project No: BAP-3548-YL1-13

References

  • References
  • [1] Leal Filho, W., Azeiteiro, U. M., Balogun, A. L., Setti, A. F. F., Mucova, S. A., Ayal, D., ... & Oguge, N. O. (2021). The influence of ecosystems services depletion to climate change adaptation efforts in Africa. Science of The Total Environment, 779, https://doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.146414.
  • [2] Başkent, E., Z. (2018). A review of the development of the multiple use forest management planning concept. International Forestry Review, 20(3), 296-313. https://doi:10.1505/146554818824063023.
  • [3] Valavi, R., Guillera‐Arroita, G., Lahoz‐Monfort, J. J., & Elith, J. (2022). Predictive performance of presence‐only species distribution models: a benchmark study with reproducible code. Ecological Monographs, 92(1). https://doi.org/10.1002/ecm.1486.
  • [4] Özkan, K., Sentürk, Ö., Mert, A., & Negiz, M. G. (2015). Modeling and mapping potential distribution of Crimean juniper (Juniperus excelsa Bieb.) using correlative approaches. Journal of Environmental Biology, 36(1), 9.
  • [5] Şentürk, Ö., Gülsoy, S., Tümer, İ. (2019). Potential Distribution Modeling and Mapping of Brutian Pine Stands in the Inner Parts of the Middle Black Sea Region in Turkey. Polish Journal of Environmental Studies, 28(1), 321-327. https://doi:10.15244/pjoes/81682.
  • [6] GDF. (2015). Forest of Turkey–2015. General Directorate of Forestry. Forest Management and Planning Department, p 32. Ankara.
  • [7] Güner, Ş.T., Çömez, A., Özkan, K., Karataş, R., & Çelik, N. (2016). Türkiye’deki karaçam ağaçlandırmalarının verimlilik modellemesi. Journal of the Faculty of Forestry Istanbul University, 66(1), 159-172. https://doi.org/10.17099/jffiu.18731.
  • [8] Yılmaz, Y., & Tüysüz, O. (1984). Kastamonu-Boyabat-Vezirköprü-Tosya arasındaki bölgenin jeolojisi (Ilgaz-Kargı masiflerinin etüdü). MTA Raporu, p 275, (In Turkish).
  • [9] Öztürk, M. Z, Çetinkaya, G., & Aydın, S. (2017). Climate Types of Turkey According to Köppen-Geiger Climate Classification. Journal of Geography, 35, 17-27. https://doi.org/10.26650/JGEOG295515.
  • [10] Bunce, R. G. H., Barr, C. J., & Whittaker, H. A. (1983). A stratification system for ecological sampling. In: Fuller, R. M., (ed.) Ecological mapping from ground, air and space. Cambridge, Institute of Terrestrial Ecology, 39-46. (ITE Symposium, 10).
  • [11] Jenness, J. (2006). Topographic Position Index (tpi_jen. avx) extension for ArcView 3. x version 1.2. Jenness Enterprises, Flagstaff.
  • [12] Roberts. D. W., and Cooper, S. V., 1989. Concepts and techniques of vegetation mapping. In Land Classifications Based on Vegetation: Applications for Resource Management. USDA Forest Service GTR INT-257, Ogden, UT, pp 90-96.
  • [13] Hijmans, R. J., Cameron, S. E., Parra J. L, Jones, P. G., & Jarvis, A. (2005). Very high resolution interpolated climate surfaces for global land areas. International Journal of Climatology, 25(15), 1965-1978. https://doi: 10.1002/joc.1276.
  • [14] Guisan, A., Edwards, T. C., & Hastie, T. (2002). Generalized linear and generalized additive models in studies of species distributions: setting the scene. Ecological Modelling, 157(2), 89-100.
  • [15] Lehmann, A., Overton, J. M., & Leathwick, J. R. (2002). RASP: Generalized Regression Analysis and Spatial Prediction. Ecological Modelling, 157(2), 189-207.
  • [16] De'ath, G., & Fabricius, K. E. (2000). Classification and regression trees: a powerful yet simple technique for ecological data analysis. Ecology, 81(11), 3178-3192.
  • [17] Özkan, K. (2014). Hierarchical modelling based ecological land classification in a forest district of Mediterranean region, Turkey. Environmental Engineering & Management Journal (EEMJ), 13(4).
  • [18] Çepel, N. (1995). Forest Ecology. İstanbul University, Faculty of Forestry Press, No: 426, İstanbul:TR.
  • [19] Atalay, İ., & Efe, R. (2015). Türkiye Biyocoğrafyası. İzmir: Meta Basım Matbaacılık.
  • [20] Gülsoy, S., Şentürk, Ö., & Tümer, İ. (2017). Modeling the potential distribution of Anatolian black pine in the inner parts of Central Black Sea environment. Journal of Environmental Biology, 38(5-SI), 945-954. https://doi: 10.22438/jeb/38/5(SI)/GM-11.
  • [21] Atalay, I., & Efe, R. (2012). Ecological attributes and distribution of Anatolian black pine [Pinus nigra Arnold. subsp. pallasiana Lamb. Holmboe] in Turkey. Journal of Environmental Biology, 33, 509-519.
  • [22] Kılınç, A., Anıl, M. (2000). Excavation and Reinforcement Applications Using Rock Mass Classification in T2 (Ayran) Tunnel on the Adana-Gaziantep Motorway. Scientific Minning Journal, 39(2), 3-10.
  • [23] Güner, Ş., Çömez, A., & Karataş, R., (2011). Relationships between some environmental characteristics and site index of Anatolian black pine (Pinus nigra Arnold. subsp. pallasina (Lamb.) Holmboe) plantation areas in the Eskisehir and Afyonkarahisar Provinces. Rebuplic of Turkey Ministry of Environment and Forestry. Research Institute for Forest Soils And Ecology, The Ministry of Environment and Forestry Research Institute for Forest Soils and Ecology Publications, (434-4), 83.
  • [24] Çepel, N. (1988). Forest Ecology. İstanbul University, Faculty of Forestry Press, No: 389, İstanbul: TR.
  • [25] Negiz, M. G., Çınar, K., & Aygül, E. Ö. (2019) Ecological Evaluations on The Productivity and Distribution Characteristics of Black Pine (Pinus nigra Arnold) Species: Example of Isparta-Yenişarbademli. Bilge International Journal of Science and Technology Research, 3(2), 189-200. https://doi.org/10.30516.
There are 26 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language English
Subjects Forest Ecosystems
Journal Section Research Articles
Authors

Özdemir Şentürk 0000-0002-1841-7213

Serkan Gülsoy 0000-0003-2011-8324

Mehmet Güvenç Negiz 0000-0002-6338-3307

Fatih Karakaya 0000-0002-6534-6382

Project Number Project No: BAP-3548-YL1-13
Early Pub Date May 11, 2024
Publication Date August 15, 2024
Submission Date August 25, 2023
Acceptance Date December 27, 2023
Published in Issue Year 2024 Volume: 17 Issue: 2

Cite

APA Şentürk, Ö., Gülsoy, S., Negiz, M. G., Karakaya, F. (2024). Determination of model maps for the potential distribution of Anatolian black pine (Pinus nigra Arnold.) in natural forest areas in the Central Black Sea region. Biological Diversity and Conservation, 17(2), 112-120. https://doi.org/10.46309/biodicon.2024.1350037
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