Forecasting Chestnut Production and Export of Turkey Using ARIMA Model

Uğur Başer; Mehmet Bozoğlu; Nevra Alhas Eroğlu; Bakiye Kılıç Topuz

doi:10.34110/forecasting.482789

Research Article

Forecasting Chestnut Production and Export of Turkey Using ARIMA Model

Year 2018, Volume: 02 Issue: 2, 27 - 33, 31.12.2018

Uğur Başer Mehmet Bozoğlu Nevra Alhas Eroğlu Bakiye Kılıç Topuz

https://doi.org/10.34110/forecasting.482789

Cited By: 7

Abstract

Turkey is one of main producers and exporter countries of chestnut in the world. It is essential to assess scientifically the accurate future production and export potentials of chestnut on the basis of past trends. This study focuses on forecasting the chestnut production and export of Turkey up to the year 2021 using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model. The time series data for the chestnut production and export of Turkey were obtained from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). Annual data for the period of 1961-2016 was used for the study. The study revealed that the best models for forecasting the chestnut production and export were ARIMA (1, 1, 1) and ARIMA (1, 2, 1), respectively. The ARIMA model showed that while the chestnut production of Turkey in 2021 would be 64.183 tonnes with lower limit of 38.946 tonnes and upper limit of 89420 tonnes. However, Turkey’s chestnut export in 2021 would be 7.962 tonnes with lower limit of 563 tonnes and upper limit of 15362 tonnes. The study concluded that Turkey’s chestnut production and export will increase in the forecasted years. The stakeholders of chestnut sector should take account these projections in their production and marketing decision.

Keywords

Chestnut, Forecasting, Production, Export, ARIMA model, Turkey

References

[1] FAO, “Food and Agricultural Organization”, (2018), http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/PP (Accessed: 27.09.2018)
[2] TURKSTAT, “Turkish Statistical Institute”, (2018), https://biruni.tuik.gov.tr/medas/?kn=92&locale=tr (Accessed: 01.10.2018).
[3] C.G. Abreu, L. Carvalho, M.J. Gaspar, A.L. Gomes, J. Colaço and A.O. Cardoso, “Assessment of resistance to chestnut ink disease”, Acta Horticulture, vol. 494, (1999), pp.363-368.
[4] P. Ding, FX Liu, C.X. Xu and K.R. Wang, “Transmission of Cryphonectria hypovirus to protect chestnut trees from chestnut blight disease”, Biological Control, Vol. 40, (2007), pp. 9-14.
[5] C. Robin, S. Lanz, A. Soutrenon and D. Rigling, “Dominance of natural over released biological control agents of the chestnut blight fungus cryphonectria parasitica in South-Eastern France is associated with fitness-related traits”, Biological Control, Vol. 53, (2010), pp. 55-61.
[6] S. Gentile, D. Valentino and G. Tamietti, “Effectiveness of potassium phosphite in the control of chestnut ink disease”, Acta Horticulture, Vol. 866, (2010), pp. 417-424.
[7] A.B. Choupina, L. Estevinho and I.M. Martins, “Scientifically advanced solutions for chestnut ınk disease”, Applied microbiology and biotechnology Vol. 98, (2014), pp. 3905-3909.
[8] M. Adua, “Sweet chestnut production and marketing in Italy”, Acta Horticicuture, Vol. 494, (1999), pp. 49-54.
[9] P. Grau and A. France, “Chestnut production in Chile. Some steps toward its improvement”, Acta Horticulture Vol. 494,(1999), pp. 37-42.
[10] J.D. Ridley, “Market development opportunities in the Australian chestnut industry”, Acta Horticulture Vol. 494, (1999), pp. 55-60.
[11] H. Breisch, “The chestnut industry in France” In II Iberian Congress on Chestnut Vol. 784, (2008), pp. 31-36.
[12] G. Bounous, “Chestnut industry development and quality of the productions”, Acta Horticulture, Vol. 844, (2009), pp. 21-26.
[13] V. Karadeniz, “Chestnut agriculture in Turkey and its main problems”, Journal of International Social Research Vol 6, (2013), pp. 279-291.
[14] M.A. Gold, M. M. Cernusca and L. D. Godsey, “Competitive market analysis: Chestnut producers”, HortTechnology, Vol. 16, (2006), pp. 360-369
[15] M. Bozoglu, U. Başer, N. Alhas Eroglu and B. Kilic Topuz, “Developments in the Chestnut Markets of Turkey”, 6th International Chestnut Symposium, Samsun, Turkey, (2017), October 9-13
[16] Y. Jin “Cost-benefit analysis of chestnut production in Xingtai County”, Asian Agricultural Research vol. 6, (2014), pp. 33-37
[17] M. Bozoglu, U. Başer, N. Alhas Eroglu and B. Kilic Topuz, “The Cost and Profitability of Chestnut Production in Aydin Province, Turkey”, 6th International Chestnut Symposium, Samsun, Turkey, (2017), October 9-13
[18] R. Biswas and B. Bhattacharyya, “ARIMA modeling to forecast area and production of rice in West Bengal. Journal of crop and weed, vol. 9, no. 2, (2013), pp. 26-31.
[19] G.E. Box and G.M. Jenkins, “Time Series Analysis Forecasting and Control” Holden- Day. San Francisco, (1976).
[20] Ş. Çelik, “Türkiye’de Kırmızı Et Üretiminin Box-Jenkins Yöntemiyle Modellenmesi ve Üretim Projeksiyonu. Hayvansal Üretim, vol. 53, no.2, (2012), pp. 32-39.
[21] N. Iqbal, K. Bakhsh, A. Maqbool and A.S. Ahmad, “Use of the ARIMA model for forecasting wheat area and production in Pakistan”, Journal of Agriculture and Social Sciences, vol. 1 no.2, (2005), pp.120-122.
[22] K.K. Suresh, and S.K. Priya, “Forecasting sugarcane yield of Tamilnadu using ARIMA models”, Sugar Tech, vol. 13 no. 1, (2011), pp. 23-26.
[23] M.A. Awal and M.A.B. Siddique, “Rice production in Bangladesh employing by ARIMA model”, Bangladesh Journal of Agricultural Research, vol.36, no. 1, (2011), pp. 51-62.
[24] M.A Badmus, and O.S Ariyo, “Forecasting cultivated areas and production of maize in Nigerian using ARIMA Model”, Asian Journal of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 3 no. 3, (2011), pp. 171-176.
[25] O.O Özer and G.G. Yavuz, “Box-Jenkıns Modeli Yardımıyla Fındık Fiyatının Tahmini” 12. Ulusal Tarım Ekonomisi Kongresi, Samsun, Türkiye (2014), 3-5 Eylül.
[26] İ. Uçum, “ARIMA Modeli ile Türkiye Soya Üretim ve İthalat Projeksiyonu”, Tarım Ekonomisi Araştırmaları Dergisi, vol.2 no.1, (2016), pp.24-31.
[27] E. Erdogdu, “Natural Gas Demand in Turkey”. Appl. Energy, vol. 87, (2010), pp. 211–219.
[28] G.M. Ljung, and G.M. Box, “On a measure of lack of fit in time series models”, Biometrika, vol.65, no.2, (1978), pp. 297-303

Year 2018, Volume: 02 Issue: 2, 27 - 33, 31.12.2018

Uğur Başer Mehmet Bozoğlu Nevra Alhas Eroğlu Bakiye Kılıç Topuz

https://doi.org/10.34110/forecasting.482789

Cited By: 7

Abstract

References

[1] FAO, “Food and Agricultural Organization”, (2018), http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/PP (Accessed: 27.09.2018)
[2] TURKSTAT, “Turkish Statistical Institute”, (2018), https://biruni.tuik.gov.tr/medas/?kn=92&locale=tr (Accessed: 01.10.2018).
[3] C.G. Abreu, L. Carvalho, M.J. Gaspar, A.L. Gomes, J. Colaço and A.O. Cardoso, “Assessment of resistance to chestnut ink disease”, Acta Horticulture, vol. 494, (1999), pp.363-368.
[4] P. Ding, FX Liu, C.X. Xu and K.R. Wang, “Transmission of Cryphonectria hypovirus to protect chestnut trees from chestnut blight disease”, Biological Control, Vol. 40, (2007), pp. 9-14.
[5] C. Robin, S. Lanz, A. Soutrenon and D. Rigling, “Dominance of natural over released biological control agents of the chestnut blight fungus cryphonectria parasitica in South-Eastern France is associated with fitness-related traits”, Biological Control, Vol. 53, (2010), pp. 55-61.
[6] S. Gentile, D. Valentino and G. Tamietti, “Effectiveness of potassium phosphite in the control of chestnut ink disease”, Acta Horticulture, Vol. 866, (2010), pp. 417-424.
[7] A.B. Choupina, L. Estevinho and I.M. Martins, “Scientifically advanced solutions for chestnut ınk disease”, Applied microbiology and biotechnology Vol. 98, (2014), pp. 3905-3909.
[8] M. Adua, “Sweet chestnut production and marketing in Italy”, Acta Horticicuture, Vol. 494, (1999), pp. 49-54.
[9] P. Grau and A. France, “Chestnut production in Chile. Some steps toward its improvement”, Acta Horticulture Vol. 494,(1999), pp. 37-42.
[10] J.D. Ridley, “Market development opportunities in the Australian chestnut industry”, Acta Horticulture Vol. 494, (1999), pp. 55-60.
[11] H. Breisch, “The chestnut industry in France” In II Iberian Congress on Chestnut Vol. 784, (2008), pp. 31-36.
[12] G. Bounous, “Chestnut industry development and quality of the productions”, Acta Horticulture, Vol. 844, (2009), pp. 21-26.
[13] V. Karadeniz, “Chestnut agriculture in Turkey and its main problems”, Journal of International Social Research Vol 6, (2013), pp. 279-291.
[14] M.A. Gold, M. M. Cernusca and L. D. Godsey, “Competitive market analysis: Chestnut producers”, HortTechnology, Vol. 16, (2006), pp. 360-369
[15] M. Bozoglu, U. Başer, N. Alhas Eroglu and B. Kilic Topuz, “Developments in the Chestnut Markets of Turkey”, 6th International Chestnut Symposium, Samsun, Turkey, (2017), October 9-13
[16] Y. Jin “Cost-benefit analysis of chestnut production in Xingtai County”, Asian Agricultural Research vol. 6, (2014), pp. 33-37
[17] M. Bozoglu, U. Başer, N. Alhas Eroglu and B. Kilic Topuz, “The Cost and Profitability of Chestnut Production in Aydin Province, Turkey”, 6th International Chestnut Symposium, Samsun, Turkey, (2017), October 9-13
[18] R. Biswas and B. Bhattacharyya, “ARIMA modeling to forecast area and production of rice in West Bengal. Journal of crop and weed, vol. 9, no. 2, (2013), pp. 26-31.
[19] G.E. Box and G.M. Jenkins, “Time Series Analysis Forecasting and Control” Holden- Day. San Francisco, (1976).
[20] Ş. Çelik, “Türkiye’de Kırmızı Et Üretiminin Box-Jenkins Yöntemiyle Modellenmesi ve Üretim Projeksiyonu. Hayvansal Üretim, vol. 53, no.2, (2012), pp. 32-39.
[21] N. Iqbal, K. Bakhsh, A. Maqbool and A.S. Ahmad, “Use of the ARIMA model for forecasting wheat area and production in Pakistan”, Journal of Agriculture and Social Sciences, vol. 1 no.2, (2005), pp.120-122.
[22] K.K. Suresh, and S.K. Priya, “Forecasting sugarcane yield of Tamilnadu using ARIMA models”, Sugar Tech, vol. 13 no. 1, (2011), pp. 23-26.
[23] M.A. Awal and M.A.B. Siddique, “Rice production in Bangladesh employing by ARIMA model”, Bangladesh Journal of Agricultural Research, vol.36, no. 1, (2011), pp. 51-62.
[24] M.A Badmus, and O.S Ariyo, “Forecasting cultivated areas and production of maize in Nigerian using ARIMA Model”, Asian Journal of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 3 no. 3, (2011), pp. 171-176.
[25] O.O Özer and G.G. Yavuz, “Box-Jenkıns Modeli Yardımıyla Fındık Fiyatının Tahmini” 12. Ulusal Tarım Ekonomisi Kongresi, Samsun, Türkiye (2014), 3-5 Eylül.
[26] İ. Uçum, “ARIMA Modeli ile Türkiye Soya Üretim ve İthalat Projeksiyonu”, Tarım Ekonomisi Araştırmaları Dergisi, vol.2 no.1, (2016), pp.24-31.
[27] E. Erdogdu, “Natural Gas Demand in Turkey”. Appl. Energy, vol. 87, (2010), pp. 211–219.
[28] G.M. Ljung, and G.M. Box, “On a measure of lack of fit in time series models”, Biometrika, vol.65, no.2, (1978), pp. 297-303

There are 28 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language	English
Subjects	Mathematical Sciences
Journal Section	Articles
Authors	Uğur Başer 0000-0003-4961-2764 Mehmet Bozoğlu 0000-0001-8333-1865 Nevra Alhas Eroğlu This is me 0000-0002-1188-8274 Bakiye Kılıç Topuz 0000-0002-3607-4306
Publication Date	December 31, 2018
Submission Date	November 14, 2018
Acceptance Date	January 8, 2019
Published in Issue	Year 2018 Volume: 02 Issue: 2

Cite

APA	Başer, U., Bozoğlu, M., Alhas Eroğlu, N., Kılıç Topuz, B. (2018). Forecasting Chestnut Production and Export of Turkey Using ARIMA Model. Turkish Journal of Forecasting, 02(2), 27-33. https://doi.org/10.34110/forecasting.482789
AMA	Başer U, Bozoğlu M, Alhas Eroğlu N, Kılıç Topuz B. Forecasting Chestnut Production and Export of Turkey Using ARIMA Model. TJF. December 2018;02(2):27-33. doi:10.34110/forecasting.482789
Chicago	Başer, Uğur, Mehmet Bozoğlu, Nevra Alhas Eroğlu, and Bakiye Kılıç Topuz. “Forecasting Chestnut Production and Export of Turkey Using ARIMA Model”. Turkish Journal of Forecasting 02, no. 2 (December 2018): 27-33. https://doi.org/10.34110/forecasting.482789.
EndNote	Başer U, Bozoğlu M, Alhas Eroğlu N, Kılıç Topuz B (December 1, 2018) Forecasting Chestnut Production and Export of Turkey Using ARIMA Model. Turkish Journal of Forecasting 02 2 27–33.
IEEE	U. Başer, M. Bozoğlu, N. Alhas Eroğlu, and B. Kılıç Topuz, “Forecasting Chestnut Production and Export of Turkey Using ARIMA Model”, TJF, vol. 02, no. 2, pp. 27–33, 2018, doi: 10.34110/forecasting.482789.
ISNAD	Başer, Uğur et al. “Forecasting Chestnut Production and Export of Turkey Using ARIMA Model”. Turkish Journal of Forecasting 02/2 (December 2018), 27-33. https://doi.org/10.34110/forecasting.482789.
JAMA	Başer U, Bozoğlu M, Alhas Eroğlu N, Kılıç Topuz B. Forecasting Chestnut Production and Export of Turkey Using ARIMA Model. TJF. 2018;02:27–33.
MLA	Başer, Uğur et al. “Forecasting Chestnut Production and Export of Turkey Using ARIMA Model”. Turkish Journal of Forecasting, vol. 02, no. 2, 2018, pp. 27-33, doi:10.34110/forecasting.482789.
Vancouver	Başer U, Bozoğlu M, Alhas Eroğlu N, Kılıç Topuz B. Forecasting Chestnut Production and Export of Turkey Using ARIMA Model. TJF. 2018;02(2):27-33.