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IMPACT OF VOLATILITY OF WORLD OIL PRICES ON TURKEY’S FOOD PRICES: GARCH APPROACH

Year 2016, Volume: 5 Issue: 9, 1 - 8, 02.10.2016

Gökhan Çınar Adnan Hushmat

Abstract

This study aims at analyzing the effects of global oil price shocks on food price volatility in Turkey. GARCH models are used to analyze monthly data of the said variables covering a period of 1995-2000. The results show that the global oil prices significantly effect the volatility of the food prices in Turkey. Moreover, the oil price shocks have delayed effect on the food price volatility. This may be a result of agricultural products’ low elasticity of supply and taxes on oil prices. Furthermore, the delayed effect of the oil price shocks provide opportunity for policy makers and market participants to take necessary measures to reduce its impact.

References

  • ABDLAZIZ, R. Abdlkarim, Rahim A. KHALID, ve Peter ADAMU (2016), ''Oil and Food Prices Co-Integration Nexus for Indonesia: a Nonlinear ARDL Analysis'', International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 6(1), 82-87.
  • BAEK, Jungho ve Won W. KOO (2010), ''Analyzing Factors Affecting U.S. Food Price Inflation'', Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue Canadienne D'agroeconomie, 58(3), 303-320.
  • EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) 2016, [Erişim Adresi: https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pri_spt_s1_d.htm, Erişim Tarihi: 06.10.2015].
  • ESMAEILI, Abdoulkarim ve Shokoohi ZAINAB (2011), ''Assessing The Effect of Oil Price on World Food Prices: Application Of Principal Component Analysis'', Energy Policy, 39: 1022–1025.
  • ETKB (T.C. Enerji ve Tabii Kaynaklar Bakanlığı) (2015), Petrol ve Doğalgaz Sektör Raporu, [Erişim Adresi: http://www.enerji.gov.tr/File/?path=ROOT%2f1%2fDocuments%2fSekt%C3%B6r+Raporu%2fHP_DG_SEKTOR_RPR.pdf, Erişim Tarihi: 10.10.2015].
  • GOHIN, Alexandre ve François CHANTRET (2010), ''The Long-Run Impact Of Energy Prices On World Agricultural Markets: The Role Of Macro-Economic Linkages'', Energy Policy, 38(1), 333-339.
  • HARRI, Ardian; Lanier NALLEY, ve Hudson DARREN (2009), ''The Relationship Between Oil, Exchange Rates, and Commodity Prices'', Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, 41(2), 501–510.
  • IMF International Monetary Fund (2015), [Erişim Adresi: https://www.imf.org/external/np/res/commod/index.aspx, Erişim Tarihi: 15.11.2015].
  • KAPUSUZOGLU, Ayhan, ve Merve K. ULUSOY (2015), ''The Interactions Between Agricultural Commodity and Oil Prices: an Empirical Analysis'', Agricultural Economics (Zemědělská Ekonomika), 61(9), 410-421.
  • NAZLIOGLU, Saban, (2011), ''World oil and agricultural commodity prices: Evidence from nonlinear causality'', Energy policy, 39(5), 2935-2943.
  • NAZLIOGLU, Saban ve Ugur SOYTAS (2011), ''World Oil Prices and Agricultural Commodity Prices: Evidence From an Emerging Market'', Energy Economics, 33(3), 488-496.
  • NAZLIOGLU, Saban ve Ugur SOYTAS (2012), ''Oil price, agricultural commodity prices, and the dollar: A panel cointegration and causality analysis'', Energy Economics, 34(4), 1098-1104.
  • NAZLIOGLU, Saban; Cumhur ERDEM and Ugur SOYTAS (2013), ''Volatility Spillover Between Oil and Agricultural Commodity Markets'', Energy Economics, 36, 658-665.
  • PALA, Aynur (2013), ''Structural Breaks, Cointegration, and Causality by VECM Analysis of Crude Oil and Food Price'', International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 3(3), 238.
  • TIMILSINA, R. Govinda; Simon MEVEL ve Ashish SHRESTHA (2011), Oil Price, Biofuels and Food Supply, Energy Policy, 39(12), 8098-8105.
  • TUIK Turkish Statistical Institute (2016), [Erişim Adresi: http://www.tuik.gov.tr/PreTablo.do?alt_id=1101, Erişim Tarihi: 20.11.2015].
  • ZHANG, Chuanguo, and Xuqin QU. (2015), ''The Effect Of Global Oil Price Shocks on China's Agricultural Commodities'', Energy Economics, 51, 354-364.
  • ZHENGWEI, Ma; Xu RUI, and Dong XIUCHENG. (2015), ''World Oil Prices and Agricultural Commodity Prices: The Evidence From China'', Agricultural Economics (Zemědělská Ekonomika), 61(12), 564-576.

DÜNYA PETROL FIYATLARI OYNAKLIĞININ TÜRKIYE’DEKI GIDA FIYATLARINA ETKİSİ: GARCH YAKLAŞIMI

Year 2016, Volume: 5 Issue: 9, 1 - 8, 02.10.2016

Gökhan Çınar Adnan Hushmat

Abstract

Bu çalışmada, küresel petrol fiyat şoklarının Türkiye'de gıda fiyatları oynaklığına etkileri incelenmiştir. 1995-2000 dönemini kapsayan aylık verileri analiz etmek için GARCH modelleri kullanılmıştır. Sonuçlar, küresel petrol fiyatları oynaklığının önemli ölçüde Türkiye'de gıda fiyatlarına etkisi olduğunu göstermektedir.Bunun yanısıra, petrol fiyat şoklarının gıda fiyatları oynaklığına etkisi gecikmelidir. Bu durum tarımsal ürünlerin düşük arz elastikiyeti ve petrol fiyatlarından alınan vergilerin sonucu olabilir. Ayrıca, petrol fiyat şoklarının gecikmeli etkisi, etkisileri azaltarak gerekli önlemleri almak için politika yapıcılara ve piyasa katılımcılarına fırsat sağlayabilir

Keywords

Tarım ürünleri üretici fiyat endeksi Petrol fiyatları GARCH model Türkiye

References

  • ABDLAZIZ, R. Abdlkarim, Rahim A. KHALID, ve Peter ADAMU (2016), ''Oil and Food Prices Co-Integration Nexus for Indonesia: a Nonlinear ARDL Analysis'', International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 6(1), 82-87.
  • BAEK, Jungho ve Won W. KOO (2010), ''Analyzing Factors Affecting U.S. Food Price Inflation'', Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue Canadienne D'agroeconomie, 58(3), 303-320.
  • EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) 2016, [Erişim Adresi: https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pri_spt_s1_d.htm, Erişim Tarihi: 06.10.2015].
  • ESMAEILI, Abdoulkarim ve Shokoohi ZAINAB (2011), ''Assessing The Effect of Oil Price on World Food Prices: Application Of Principal Component Analysis'', Energy Policy, 39: 1022–1025.
  • ETKB (T.C. Enerji ve Tabii Kaynaklar Bakanlığı) (2015), Petrol ve Doğalgaz Sektör Raporu, [Erişim Adresi: http://www.enerji.gov.tr/File/?path=ROOT%2f1%2fDocuments%2fSekt%C3%B6r+Raporu%2fHP_DG_SEKTOR_RPR.pdf, Erişim Tarihi: 10.10.2015].
  • GOHIN, Alexandre ve François CHANTRET (2010), ''The Long-Run Impact Of Energy Prices On World Agricultural Markets: The Role Of Macro-Economic Linkages'', Energy Policy, 38(1), 333-339.
  • HARRI, Ardian; Lanier NALLEY, ve Hudson DARREN (2009), ''The Relationship Between Oil, Exchange Rates, and Commodity Prices'', Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, 41(2), 501–510.
  • IMF International Monetary Fund (2015), [Erişim Adresi: https://www.imf.org/external/np/res/commod/index.aspx, Erişim Tarihi: 15.11.2015].
  • KAPUSUZOGLU, Ayhan, ve Merve K. ULUSOY (2015), ''The Interactions Between Agricultural Commodity and Oil Prices: an Empirical Analysis'', Agricultural Economics (Zemědělská Ekonomika), 61(9), 410-421.
  • NAZLIOGLU, Saban, (2011), ''World oil and agricultural commodity prices: Evidence from nonlinear causality'', Energy policy, 39(5), 2935-2943.
  • NAZLIOGLU, Saban ve Ugur SOYTAS (2011), ''World Oil Prices and Agricultural Commodity Prices: Evidence From an Emerging Market'', Energy Economics, 33(3), 488-496.
  • NAZLIOGLU, Saban ve Ugur SOYTAS (2012), ''Oil price, agricultural commodity prices, and the dollar: A panel cointegration and causality analysis'', Energy Economics, 34(4), 1098-1104.
  • NAZLIOGLU, Saban; Cumhur ERDEM and Ugur SOYTAS (2013), ''Volatility Spillover Between Oil and Agricultural Commodity Markets'', Energy Economics, 36, 658-665.
  • PALA, Aynur (2013), ''Structural Breaks, Cointegration, and Causality by VECM Analysis of Crude Oil and Food Price'', International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 3(3), 238.
  • TIMILSINA, R. Govinda; Simon MEVEL ve Ashish SHRESTHA (2011), Oil Price, Biofuels and Food Supply, Energy Policy, 39(12), 8098-8105.
  • TUIK Turkish Statistical Institute (2016), [Erişim Adresi: http://www.tuik.gov.tr/PreTablo.do?alt_id=1101, Erişim Tarihi: 20.11.2015].
  • ZHANG, Chuanguo, and Xuqin QU. (2015), ''The Effect Of Global Oil Price Shocks on China's Agricultural Commodities'', Energy Economics, 51, 354-364.
  • ZHENGWEI, Ma; Xu RUI, and Dong XIUCHENG. (2015), ''World Oil Prices and Agricultural Commodity Prices: The Evidence From China'', Agricultural Economics (Zemědělská Ekonomika), 61(12), 564-576.
There are 18 citations in total.

Details

Journal Section Articles
Authors

Gökhan Çınar

Adnan Hushmat This is me

Publication Date October 2, 2016
Published in Issue Year 2016 Volume: 5 Issue: 9

Cite

APA Çınar, G., & Hushmat, A. (2016). DÜNYA PETROL FIYATLARI OYNAKLIĞININ TÜRKIYE’DEKI GIDA FIYATLARINA ETKİSİ: GARCH YAKLAŞIMI. Global Journal of Economics and Business Studies, 5(9), 1-8.
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