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Determination of Agricultural Mechanization Level in Kahramanmaraş with Poisson Regress by District

Year 2024, Volume: 21 Issue: 2, 285 - 296, 13.03.2024
https://doi.org/10.33462/jotaf.1186095

Abstract

In this study, agricultural mechanization level indicators of the districts of Kahramanmaraş between the years 2012-2021 were calculated. A model has been established for this. While the dependent variable in the model is the agricultural areas planted in the districts according to the years, the independent variables are the number of tractors in the districts according to the years and other determined tools, equipment and machines. Poisson regression test was used, there was 25.022 chi-square probability relationship between the planted agricultural areas in Kahramanmaraş districts between 2012 and 2021, with the number of tractors in the districts and other determined equipment by years. At the level of agricultural mechanization, it was determined that there was a 3.32 decrease in the average number of tractors per 1000 hectares of land in Kahramanmaraş districts between 2012 and 2021, and a decrease of 12.45 in the number of specific equipment per tractor over the years. Among this decrease, it was thought that reasons such as climate change, input costs and job change were among the main reasons for leaving agriculture. In the comparison made from 2012 to 2021, the number of tractors in all districts increased by 54.18%, while the number of tractor equipment was also observed. An increase of 46.11% was observed. In addition, as a result of the trend analysis value applied, it was concluded that the average absolute percentage errors in the districts were 4.10443, the average number of tractors per 1000 hectares by years, and the number of specific equipment per tractor in the districts according to the years was 1.96718, which is a good estimation.

References

  • Abdikoğlu, D. İ. (2019). Determination of agricultural mechanization level by provinces in Thrace Region.Journal of Agriculture and Nature, 22(6):865-871.
  • Akar, M., and Çelik, A. (2017). Agricultural Mechanization Characteristics of Muş Plain Agricultural Enterprises, Turkish Journal of Agricultural and Natural Sciences, 4(4):491-498.
  • Akar, M., Malaslı, M, Z. and Çelik, A. (2012). Agricultural Mechanization Characteristics of Hatay Province. 27th Agricultural Mechanization National Congress, 5-7 September, Samsun, Türkiye.
  • Akın, F. (2002). Qualitative Analysis of Preference Models, Ekin Bookstore, Bursa, Turkey.
  • Al-Ghirbal. A. S. and Al-Ghamdi A. S. (2006). Predicting severe accidents rates at roundabouts using Poisson distribution. TRB Annual Meeting, TRB 06-1684.
  • Aslantürk, B. and Altuntaş, E. (2018). Agricultural mechanization level of Malatya province.Gaziosmanpaşa Scientific Research Journal, 7(2):15-26.
  • Aybek, A. and Şenel, H. (2009). Mechanization properties and users'evaluation of farm tractors in Eastern Mediterranean Turkey. Journal of Agricultural Machinery Science, 5(1):21-27.
  • Baran M.F. and Akbayrak B. (2013). The Effect of the agricultural machinery grant program on the mechanization development of Kırklareli Province.Journal of Tekirdag Agricultural Faculty, 10(2): 53-57.
  • Bilim, C., Korucu, T. and Semerci, T. (2014). Agricultural mechanization characteristics of gaziantep province.KSU Journal of Natural Sciences, 17(2):14-23.
  • Bozkurt, M. (2016). Agricultural structure mechanization properties in Şanlıurfa Province Harran Plain determination of production techniques and technologies. (MSc. Thesis). Kahramanmaraş Sütçü İmam University, Institute of Science, Biosystem Engineering, Kahramanmaraş, Türkiye.
  • Deniz, Ö. (2005). Poisson regression analysis.Istanbul Commerce UniversityJournal of Science, 4(7):59-72.
  • Doruk, İ. (2016). Investigation of agricultural mechanization level of Denizli Province. Turkish Journal of Agriculture and Natural Sciences, 3(4): 324–331.
  • Gerlough, D. L. and Schuhl, A. (1955). Use of Poisson Distribution in Highway Traffic – The Probability Theory Applied to Distribution of Vehicles on Two-Lane Highways, Saugatuck, Connecticut, USA: The ENO Foundation for Highway Traffic Control, 1-58.
  • Gokdogan, O. and Bayhan, A. K. (2011). Mechanization level of Egidir District agricultural enterprises.Adnan Menderes University Journal of Agriculture Faculty, 8(1):23-29.
  • Gürsakal, N. (1997). Computer Applied 1. Marmara Bookstore, Bursa, Turkey.
  • Irmaklı P.G. and Aydin A. (2022). Contribution of Land Consolidation to Agriculture and Agricultural Mechanization. Çanakkale-Biga-Dereköy example.Journal of Tekirdag Agricultural Faculty, 19(3): 582-599.
  • Kibar, F, T. (2008). Traffic accidents and establishment of accident prediction model in the example of Trabzon divided coastal road. (MSc. Thesis). Karadeniz Technical University, Institute of Science and Technology, Trabzon, Türkiye.
  • Koçtürk, D. and Onurbaş, A. A. (2007). Determination of agricultural mechanization level by regions and provinces in Turkey. Journal of Agricultural Machinery Science, 3(1): 17–24.
  • Kök, M. (1993). A Research on agricultural mechanization characteristics of Tunceli Province and examination of these features in terms of agricultural potential of the region. (MSc Thesis) Çukurova University, Institute of Science, Department of Agricultural Machinery, Adana, Türkiye.
  • Köleoğlu, N. (2006). Random effects in event time analysis investigation of unobservable heterogeneity with poisson regression model. (Ph.D Thesis) Marmara University, Institute of Social Sciences, Istanbul, Türkiye.
  • Korucu, T., Aybek, A., Sivrikaya, F., Gürlek, E., Mert, C., Kozak, B. (2015). Mapping and evaluation of agricultural mechanization level of Kahramanmaraş Province.KSU Journal of Natural Sciences, 18(2):10-24.
  • Lloyd, C, J. (1999). Statistical Analysis of Categorical Data, New York, U.S.A.
  • Lüle, F., Koyuncu, T. and Engin, K. E. (2012). Agricultural Mechanization Level of Adıyaman Province. 27th Agricultural Mechanization National Congress, 5-7 September, Samsun, Türkiye.
  • Oguz, C., Bayramoglu, Z., Mouzan, S. and Mouzan, K. (2017). Agricultural mechanization in agricultural enterprises usage level, example of Konya Province. Selcuk Journal of Agriculture and Food Sciences, 31(1): 63-72.
  • Sabancı, A., Sümer, S. K., Say, M. S. and Has. M. (2003). Economic Tractor Park and Its Development in Turkey.21st Agricultural Mechanization National Congress, 3-5 September, Konya, Türkiye.
  • SAS., (2005). SAS/STAT Software: Hangen and Enhanced. SAS, Inst. Inc., USA.
  • Sümer, S. K., Has, M. and Sabancı, A. (2004). Technical specifications of agricultural tractors produced in Turkey.Çukurova UniversityJournal of the Faculty of Agriculture, 19(1):17-26.
  • Sümer, S. K., Say, S. M., Has. M. and Sabancı, A. (2003). Economic tractor park and its development in Turkey.Çukurova University Journal of the Faculty of Agriculture, 18(4):45-52.
  • Witt, S. F. and Witt, C. A. (1992). Modeling and Forecasting Demand in Tourism, Academic Press, London, England.
  • Yavuz, H. (2016). Evaluation of livestock support policies in terms of agricultural enterprises. (MSc. Thesis). Gaziosmanpaşa University, Institute of Science, Department of Agricultural Economics, Tokat, Türkiye.
  • Yeşilova, A., Yılmaz, A. and Kaki, B. (2006). The use of nonlinear regression models in the analysis of some discrete reproduction behavioral traits of Norduz male lambs.Yüzüncü Yıl University, Faculty of Agriculture, Journal of Agricultural Science, 16(2):87-92.

Kahramanmaraş İlinde Tarımsal Mekanizasyon Düzeyinin İlçelere Göre Poisson Regresyon ile Belirlenmesi

Year 2024, Volume: 21 Issue: 2, 285 - 296, 13.03.2024
https://doi.org/10.33462/jotaf.1186095

Abstract

Bu çalışmada Kahramanmaraş ilinin ilçelerinin 2012-2021 yılları arasındaki tarımsal mekanizasyon düzeyi göstergeleri hesaplanmıştır. Bunun için bir model kurulmuştur. Modelde bağımlı değişken yıllara göre ilçelerinde ekilen tarım alanları olur iken, bağımsız değişkenlerde yıllara göre ilçelerdeki traktör sayısı ve belirlenmiş diğer aletlerdir. Poisson regresyon testinin kullanıldığı bu alanda Kahramanmaraş ilinin ilçelerinin 2012-2021 yılları arasında Kahramanmaraş ilçelerinde ekilen tarım alanlarının, yıllara göre ilçelerdeki traktör sayısı ve belirlenmiş diğer aletleri ile arasında 25.022 ki-kare olabilirlik oranında bir ilişki vardır. Tarımsal mekanizasyon düzeyinde 2012-2021 yılları arasında Kahramanmaraş ilçelerinde yıllara göre 1000 hektar alana düşen ortalama traktör sayısında 3.32 oranında, yıllara göre traktör başına düşen belirli ekipman sayısında da 12.45 oranında bir azalma olduğu belirlenmiştir. Bu azalmanın arasında iklim değişikliği, girdi maliyetleri, iş değişikliği gibi nedenlerden dolayı tarımı bırakmanın temel nedenleri arasında yer aldığı düşünülmüştür. Ayrıca uygulanan trend analiz değerinin sonucunda ortalama mutlak yüzdesel hatalar ise ilçelerin yıllara göre 1000 hektar alana düşen ortalama traktör sayısı 4.10443, ilçelerin yıllara göre traktör başına düşen belirli ekipman sayısı da 1.96718 olarak iyi bir tahmin gerçekleştirildiğinin sonucuna ulaşılmıştır.

References

  • Abdikoğlu, D. İ. (2019). Determination of agricultural mechanization level by provinces in Thrace Region.Journal of Agriculture and Nature, 22(6):865-871.
  • Akar, M., and Çelik, A. (2017). Agricultural Mechanization Characteristics of Muş Plain Agricultural Enterprises, Turkish Journal of Agricultural and Natural Sciences, 4(4):491-498.
  • Akar, M., Malaslı, M, Z. and Çelik, A. (2012). Agricultural Mechanization Characteristics of Hatay Province. 27th Agricultural Mechanization National Congress, 5-7 September, Samsun, Türkiye.
  • Akın, F. (2002). Qualitative Analysis of Preference Models, Ekin Bookstore, Bursa, Turkey.
  • Al-Ghirbal. A. S. and Al-Ghamdi A. S. (2006). Predicting severe accidents rates at roundabouts using Poisson distribution. TRB Annual Meeting, TRB 06-1684.
  • Aslantürk, B. and Altuntaş, E. (2018). Agricultural mechanization level of Malatya province.Gaziosmanpaşa Scientific Research Journal, 7(2):15-26.
  • Aybek, A. and Şenel, H. (2009). Mechanization properties and users'evaluation of farm tractors in Eastern Mediterranean Turkey. Journal of Agricultural Machinery Science, 5(1):21-27.
  • Baran M.F. and Akbayrak B. (2013). The Effect of the agricultural machinery grant program on the mechanization development of Kırklareli Province.Journal of Tekirdag Agricultural Faculty, 10(2): 53-57.
  • Bilim, C., Korucu, T. and Semerci, T. (2014). Agricultural mechanization characteristics of gaziantep province.KSU Journal of Natural Sciences, 17(2):14-23.
  • Bozkurt, M. (2016). Agricultural structure mechanization properties in Şanlıurfa Province Harran Plain determination of production techniques and technologies. (MSc. Thesis). Kahramanmaraş Sütçü İmam University, Institute of Science, Biosystem Engineering, Kahramanmaraş, Türkiye.
  • Deniz, Ö. (2005). Poisson regression analysis.Istanbul Commerce UniversityJournal of Science, 4(7):59-72.
  • Doruk, İ. (2016). Investigation of agricultural mechanization level of Denizli Province. Turkish Journal of Agriculture and Natural Sciences, 3(4): 324–331.
  • Gerlough, D. L. and Schuhl, A. (1955). Use of Poisson Distribution in Highway Traffic – The Probability Theory Applied to Distribution of Vehicles on Two-Lane Highways, Saugatuck, Connecticut, USA: The ENO Foundation for Highway Traffic Control, 1-58.
  • Gokdogan, O. and Bayhan, A. K. (2011). Mechanization level of Egidir District agricultural enterprises.Adnan Menderes University Journal of Agriculture Faculty, 8(1):23-29.
  • Gürsakal, N. (1997). Computer Applied 1. Marmara Bookstore, Bursa, Turkey.
  • Irmaklı P.G. and Aydin A. (2022). Contribution of Land Consolidation to Agriculture and Agricultural Mechanization. Çanakkale-Biga-Dereköy example.Journal of Tekirdag Agricultural Faculty, 19(3): 582-599.
  • Kibar, F, T. (2008). Traffic accidents and establishment of accident prediction model in the example of Trabzon divided coastal road. (MSc. Thesis). Karadeniz Technical University, Institute of Science and Technology, Trabzon, Türkiye.
  • Koçtürk, D. and Onurbaş, A. A. (2007). Determination of agricultural mechanization level by regions and provinces in Turkey. Journal of Agricultural Machinery Science, 3(1): 17–24.
  • Kök, M. (1993). A Research on agricultural mechanization characteristics of Tunceli Province and examination of these features in terms of agricultural potential of the region. (MSc Thesis) Çukurova University, Institute of Science, Department of Agricultural Machinery, Adana, Türkiye.
  • Köleoğlu, N. (2006). Random effects in event time analysis investigation of unobservable heterogeneity with poisson regression model. (Ph.D Thesis) Marmara University, Institute of Social Sciences, Istanbul, Türkiye.
  • Korucu, T., Aybek, A., Sivrikaya, F., Gürlek, E., Mert, C., Kozak, B. (2015). Mapping and evaluation of agricultural mechanization level of Kahramanmaraş Province.KSU Journal of Natural Sciences, 18(2):10-24.
  • Lloyd, C, J. (1999). Statistical Analysis of Categorical Data, New York, U.S.A.
  • Lüle, F., Koyuncu, T. and Engin, K. E. (2012). Agricultural Mechanization Level of Adıyaman Province. 27th Agricultural Mechanization National Congress, 5-7 September, Samsun, Türkiye.
  • Oguz, C., Bayramoglu, Z., Mouzan, S. and Mouzan, K. (2017). Agricultural mechanization in agricultural enterprises usage level, example of Konya Province. Selcuk Journal of Agriculture and Food Sciences, 31(1): 63-72.
  • Sabancı, A., Sümer, S. K., Say, M. S. and Has. M. (2003). Economic Tractor Park and Its Development in Turkey.21st Agricultural Mechanization National Congress, 3-5 September, Konya, Türkiye.
  • SAS., (2005). SAS/STAT Software: Hangen and Enhanced. SAS, Inst. Inc., USA.
  • Sümer, S. K., Has, M. and Sabancı, A. (2004). Technical specifications of agricultural tractors produced in Turkey.Çukurova UniversityJournal of the Faculty of Agriculture, 19(1):17-26.
  • Sümer, S. K., Say, S. M., Has. M. and Sabancı, A. (2003). Economic tractor park and its development in Turkey.Çukurova University Journal of the Faculty of Agriculture, 18(4):45-52.
  • Witt, S. F. and Witt, C. A. (1992). Modeling and Forecasting Demand in Tourism, Academic Press, London, England.
  • Yavuz, H. (2016). Evaluation of livestock support policies in terms of agricultural enterprises. (MSc. Thesis). Gaziosmanpaşa University, Institute of Science, Department of Agricultural Economics, Tokat, Türkiye.
  • Yeşilova, A., Yılmaz, A. and Kaki, B. (2006). The use of nonlinear regression models in the analysis of some discrete reproduction behavioral traits of Norduz male lambs.Yüzüncü Yıl University, Faculty of Agriculture, Journal of Agricultural Science, 16(2):87-92.
There are 31 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language English
Subjects Agricultural Machine Systems
Journal Section Articles
Authors

İsmail Gök 0000-0002-0759-1187

Mustafa Şahin 0000-0003-3622-4543

Tolga Tolun 0000-0003-4081-1222

Early Pub Date March 5, 2024
Publication Date March 13, 2024
Submission Date October 8, 2022
Acceptance Date December 26, 2023
Published in Issue Year 2024 Volume: 21 Issue: 2

Cite

APA Gök, İ., Şahin, M., & Tolun, T. (2024). Determination of Agricultural Mechanization Level in Kahramanmaraş with Poisson Regress by District. Tekirdağ Ziraat Fakültesi Dergisi, 21(2), 285-296. https://doi.org/10.33462/jotaf.1186095
AMA Gök İ, Şahin M, Tolun T. Determination of Agricultural Mechanization Level in Kahramanmaraş with Poisson Regress by District. JOTAF. March 2024;21(2):285-296. doi:10.33462/jotaf.1186095
Chicago Gök, İsmail, Mustafa Şahin, and Tolga Tolun. “Determination of Agricultural Mechanization Level in Kahramanmaraş With Poisson Regress by District”. Tekirdağ Ziraat Fakültesi Dergisi 21, no. 2 (March 2024): 285-96. https://doi.org/10.33462/jotaf.1186095.
EndNote Gök İ, Şahin M, Tolun T (March 1, 2024) Determination of Agricultural Mechanization Level in Kahramanmaraş with Poisson Regress by District. Tekirdağ Ziraat Fakültesi Dergisi 21 2 285–296.
IEEE İ. Gök, M. Şahin, and T. Tolun, “Determination of Agricultural Mechanization Level in Kahramanmaraş with Poisson Regress by District”, JOTAF, vol. 21, no. 2, pp. 285–296, 2024, doi: 10.33462/jotaf.1186095.
ISNAD Gök, İsmail et al. “Determination of Agricultural Mechanization Level in Kahramanmaraş With Poisson Regress by District”. Tekirdağ Ziraat Fakültesi Dergisi 21/2 (March 2024), 285-296. https://doi.org/10.33462/jotaf.1186095.
JAMA Gök İ, Şahin M, Tolun T. Determination of Agricultural Mechanization Level in Kahramanmaraş with Poisson Regress by District. JOTAF. 2024;21:285–296.
MLA Gök, İsmail et al. “Determination of Agricultural Mechanization Level in Kahramanmaraş With Poisson Regress by District”. Tekirdağ Ziraat Fakültesi Dergisi, vol. 21, no. 2, 2024, pp. 285-96, doi:10.33462/jotaf.1186095.
Vancouver Gök İ, Şahin M, Tolun T. Determination of Agricultural Mechanization Level in Kahramanmaraş with Poisson Regress by District. JOTAF. 2024;21(2):285-96.