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Siyah Kuğuyu Yönetmek

Year 2020, Volume: 15 Issue: 23, 2164 - 2177, 31.03.2020
https://doi.org/10.26466/opus.686105

Abstract

Tahmin edilemeyen ve risk analizi yapılmasına karşın öngörülemeyen olayları ifade eden “Siyah Kuğu”, Taleb (2007) tarafından literatüre kazandırılmakla birlikte dünya genelinde akademik anlamda dikkat çeken bir metafor haline gelmiştir. Ancak, Türkçe literatürde yeterli ilgiyi görmemiş ve herhangi bir bilimsel araştırmaya konu olmamıştır. Bu açıdan bu çalışma, özellikle Türkçe literatürdeki eksikliğin giderilmesi ve stratejik yönetim sürecinde dikkat edilmesi gereken siyah kuğuların doğru bir şekilde yönetilerek, yöneticilere yeni bir perspektif sunması amacıyla gerçekleştirilmiştir. Bu amaç doğrultusunda bu çalışmada, risklerin planlanması ve yönetilmesinde, gerçekçi olmayan beklentilerden uzak durulması, olasılık alanlarının net bir şekilde belirlenerek stratejilerin bu yönde geliştirilmesi, siyah kuğulara karşı körlüğün oluşmaması için siyah kuğuların daima farkında olarak gerek iç gerekse dış çevre analizinin yapılması, dogmatik bir perspektif ile stratejilerin oluşturulmasından kaçınarak, her olasılığın meydana gelebileceği bilinciyle stratejilerin formüle edilmesi ve pozitif siyah kuğulara daima açık, negatif siyah kuğulara karşı ise proaktif davranarak gerekli önlemlerin alınması gibi hususların, siyah kuğunun stratejik yönetiminde önem arz ettiği görülmüştür.

References

  • Aik, L. G. S., ve Xiang, M. S. Y. (2016). Black Swans need not be black: Preparing the RSAF to succeed in spite of future uncertainties. Beyond the Horizon: Forging the Future RSAF, 60-74.
  • Andersen, M. M., ve Poulfelt, F. (2014). Beyond strategy: The impact of next generation companies. UK: Routledge.
  • Arnas, N. (2009). Fighting chance: Global trends and shocks in the national security environment. USA: Potomac Books.
  • Aven, T. (2015). Implications of black swans to the foundations and practice of risk assessment and management. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 134, 83-91.
  • Aven, T. (2017). A conceptual foundation for assessing and managing risk, surprises and black swans. In the Illusion of Risk Control, 23-39.
  • Aven, T., ve Krohn, B. S. (2014). A new perspective on how to understand, assess and manage risk and the unforeseen. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 121, 1-10.
  • Baumard, P., ve Starbuck, W. H. (2005). Learning from failures: Why it May not happen. Long Range Planning, 38(3), 281–298. doi:10.1016/j.lrp.2005.03.004
  • Blight, J. G. ve Lang, M. J. (2013). Black swans/White House: Why JFK matters a half century after dallas. CIGI Papers Series, 5, 1-12
  • Bogle, J. C. (2008). Black monday and black swans. Financial Analysts Journal, 64 (2), 30-40.
  • Brunåker, F., ve Nordqvist, A. (2013). A performance evaluation of black swan investments. Bachelor Thesis, 15 ECTS.
  • Catalano, A. S., Redford, K., Margoluis, R., ve Knight, A. T. (2017). Black swans, cognition, and the power of learning from failure. Conservation Biology, 32 (3), 584-596.
  • Flage, R., ve Aven, T. (2015). Emerging risk–conceptual definition and a relation to black swan type of events. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 144, 61-67.
  • Forsman, E. (2018). Black swan: Synthesis and future research directions. Master’s Thesis in Strategic Business Development.
  • Gardner, M. G. (2017). Trucking, black swans and safety. Executive White Paper, 1-9.
  • Hajikazemi, S., Ekambaram, A., Andersen, B., ve Zidane, Y. J. (2016). The black swan–knowing the unknown in projects. Procedia-Social and Behavioral Sciences, 226, 184-192.
  • Indris, S., ve Primiana, I. (2015). Internal and external environment analysis on the performance of small and medium industries (SMEs) in Indonesia. International Journal of Scientific & Technology Research, 4(4), 188-196.
  • Karadimas, A., Hewig, E., Behera, S., ve Kotisi, T. A. (2014). Case study of black swans and antifragility. Semantic Scholar, 1-17.
  • Kennon, D., ve Schutte, C. S. (2015). A strategic framework for improbable circumstances. South African Journal of Industrial Engineering, 26(2), 68-84.
  • Lindaas, O. A., ve Pettersen, K. A. (2016). Risk analysis and black swans: Two strategies for de-blackening. Journal of Risk Research, 19(10), 1231-1245.
  • Mahroum, S. (2015). The Foolhardy Quest for a European Google. In CESifo Forum, 16(2), 48-49.
  • Maslen, S., ve Hayes, J. (2015). Preventing black swans: Incident reporting systems as collective knowledge management. Journal of Risk Research, 19 (10), 1246-1260.
  • Masys, A. J. (2012). Black swans to grey swans: Revealing the uncertainty. Disaster Prevention and Management: An International Journal. 21(3), 320-335.
  • Mezias, J., ve Starbuck, W. H. (2008). Decision making with inaccurate, unreliable data. The Oxford Handbook of Organizational Decision Making. Oxford University Press.
  • Mueller, J., ve Stewart, M. G. (2016). The curse of the black swan. Journal of Risk Research, 19(10), 1319-1330.
  • Nafday, A. M. (2009). Strategies for managing the consequences of black swan events. Leadership and Management in Engineering, 9(4), 191-197.
  • Peters, D. A., ve McKay, D. A. (2014). Why won’t my financial advisor beat the market? Reflections on the ‘black swan’. Plastic Surgery, 22(3), 213-214.
  • Petty, M. (2012). The dark side of leadership: Catastrophic failure. Strategic Leadership Review, 1(1), 20-29.
  • Ponkin, I. V. (2019). Black swan event as manifestation of uncertainties in public administration. Mediterranean Journal of Social Sciences, 10(2), 9-15.
  • Poonawala, M. S. (2016). Black swans—from expecting risk to expanding technology. ISACA Journal, 3, 1-4.
  • Roland, D. (2017). Spotting the black swan: Why emergency medicine is ahead of the curve. Emergency Medicine Journal, 34 (12), 823-824.
  • Runde, J. (2009). Dissecting the black swan. Critical Review, 21(4), 491-505.
  • Santoli, T., ve Siebenbrunner, C. (2018). An ontological investigation of unimaginable events. Cornell University, 1-18.
  • Sarriot, E. (2009). Black swans, grey swans, sustainability. Or, the difference between planning and predicting. SHOUT Group, 1-15
  • Stodd, J., Reitz, E. A., Schatz, S., ve Fautua, F. (2016). Black swans and the limits of hierarchy. Proceedings of the I/ITSEC 2016, 1-12.
  • Taleb, N. N. (2007). The black swan: The impact of the highly improbable. USA: Random House.
  • Taleb, N. N., ve Blyth, M. (2011). The black swan of Cairo: How suppressing volatility makes the world less predictable and more dangerous. Foreign Affairs, 90(3), 33-39.
  • Van Dyck, C., Frese, M., Baer, M., ve Sonnentag, S. (2005). Organizational error management culture and its impact on performance: A two-study replication. Journal of Applied Psychology, 90 (6), 1228-1240.

Managing the Black Swan

Year 2020, Volume: 15 Issue: 23, 2164 - 2177, 31.03.2020
https://doi.org/10.26466/opus.686105

Abstract

“Black Swan”, which refers to unpredictable and unforeseen events despite analyzing risks, has academically become a remarkable metaphor worldwide that was brought to the literature by Taleb (2007). However, the topic has received little attention in Turkish literature so far and has not been scientifically studied. In this regard, this study has been carried out within the purpose of being fulfilled a clear need of research specifically in Turkish literature and offered a new perspective to managers via appropriately managing black swans that is a noteworthy point in the strategic management process. For this purpose, it has been seen in the study that the matters such as being avoided unrealistic expectations, developed strategies via clearly determining and understanding of the space of possibilities in the planning and managing risks, analyzed both internal and external environment via being aware of black swans for preventing black swan blindness, formulated strategies within the awareness of taking into account every possibilities via avoiding the creation of strategies with dogmatical perspective, and open for positive black swans and taken necessary measures via behaving proactive to negative black swans have been remarked.

References

  • Aik, L. G. S., ve Xiang, M. S. Y. (2016). Black Swans need not be black: Preparing the RSAF to succeed in spite of future uncertainties. Beyond the Horizon: Forging the Future RSAF, 60-74.
  • Andersen, M. M., ve Poulfelt, F. (2014). Beyond strategy: The impact of next generation companies. UK: Routledge.
  • Arnas, N. (2009). Fighting chance: Global trends and shocks in the national security environment. USA: Potomac Books.
  • Aven, T. (2015). Implications of black swans to the foundations and practice of risk assessment and management. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 134, 83-91.
  • Aven, T. (2017). A conceptual foundation for assessing and managing risk, surprises and black swans. In the Illusion of Risk Control, 23-39.
  • Aven, T., ve Krohn, B. S. (2014). A new perspective on how to understand, assess and manage risk and the unforeseen. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 121, 1-10.
  • Baumard, P., ve Starbuck, W. H. (2005). Learning from failures: Why it May not happen. Long Range Planning, 38(3), 281–298. doi:10.1016/j.lrp.2005.03.004
  • Blight, J. G. ve Lang, M. J. (2013). Black swans/White House: Why JFK matters a half century after dallas. CIGI Papers Series, 5, 1-12
  • Bogle, J. C. (2008). Black monday and black swans. Financial Analysts Journal, 64 (2), 30-40.
  • Brunåker, F., ve Nordqvist, A. (2013). A performance evaluation of black swan investments. Bachelor Thesis, 15 ECTS.
  • Catalano, A. S., Redford, K., Margoluis, R., ve Knight, A. T. (2017). Black swans, cognition, and the power of learning from failure. Conservation Biology, 32 (3), 584-596.
  • Flage, R., ve Aven, T. (2015). Emerging risk–conceptual definition and a relation to black swan type of events. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 144, 61-67.
  • Forsman, E. (2018). Black swan: Synthesis and future research directions. Master’s Thesis in Strategic Business Development.
  • Gardner, M. G. (2017). Trucking, black swans and safety. Executive White Paper, 1-9.
  • Hajikazemi, S., Ekambaram, A., Andersen, B., ve Zidane, Y. J. (2016). The black swan–knowing the unknown in projects. Procedia-Social and Behavioral Sciences, 226, 184-192.
  • Indris, S., ve Primiana, I. (2015). Internal and external environment analysis on the performance of small and medium industries (SMEs) in Indonesia. International Journal of Scientific & Technology Research, 4(4), 188-196.
  • Karadimas, A., Hewig, E., Behera, S., ve Kotisi, T. A. (2014). Case study of black swans and antifragility. Semantic Scholar, 1-17.
  • Kennon, D., ve Schutte, C. S. (2015). A strategic framework for improbable circumstances. South African Journal of Industrial Engineering, 26(2), 68-84.
  • Lindaas, O. A., ve Pettersen, K. A. (2016). Risk analysis and black swans: Two strategies for de-blackening. Journal of Risk Research, 19(10), 1231-1245.
  • Mahroum, S. (2015). The Foolhardy Quest for a European Google. In CESifo Forum, 16(2), 48-49.
  • Maslen, S., ve Hayes, J. (2015). Preventing black swans: Incident reporting systems as collective knowledge management. Journal of Risk Research, 19 (10), 1246-1260.
  • Masys, A. J. (2012). Black swans to grey swans: Revealing the uncertainty. Disaster Prevention and Management: An International Journal. 21(3), 320-335.
  • Mezias, J., ve Starbuck, W. H. (2008). Decision making with inaccurate, unreliable data. The Oxford Handbook of Organizational Decision Making. Oxford University Press.
  • Mueller, J., ve Stewart, M. G. (2016). The curse of the black swan. Journal of Risk Research, 19(10), 1319-1330.
  • Nafday, A. M. (2009). Strategies for managing the consequences of black swan events. Leadership and Management in Engineering, 9(4), 191-197.
  • Peters, D. A., ve McKay, D. A. (2014). Why won’t my financial advisor beat the market? Reflections on the ‘black swan’. Plastic Surgery, 22(3), 213-214.
  • Petty, M. (2012). The dark side of leadership: Catastrophic failure. Strategic Leadership Review, 1(1), 20-29.
  • Ponkin, I. V. (2019). Black swan event as manifestation of uncertainties in public administration. Mediterranean Journal of Social Sciences, 10(2), 9-15.
  • Poonawala, M. S. (2016). Black swans—from expecting risk to expanding technology. ISACA Journal, 3, 1-4.
  • Roland, D. (2017). Spotting the black swan: Why emergency medicine is ahead of the curve. Emergency Medicine Journal, 34 (12), 823-824.
  • Runde, J. (2009). Dissecting the black swan. Critical Review, 21(4), 491-505.
  • Santoli, T., ve Siebenbrunner, C. (2018). An ontological investigation of unimaginable events. Cornell University, 1-18.
  • Sarriot, E. (2009). Black swans, grey swans, sustainability. Or, the difference between planning and predicting. SHOUT Group, 1-15
  • Stodd, J., Reitz, E. A., Schatz, S., ve Fautua, F. (2016). Black swans and the limits of hierarchy. Proceedings of the I/ITSEC 2016, 1-12.
  • Taleb, N. N. (2007). The black swan: The impact of the highly improbable. USA: Random House.
  • Taleb, N. N., ve Blyth, M. (2011). The black swan of Cairo: How suppressing volatility makes the world less predictable and more dangerous. Foreign Affairs, 90(3), 33-39.
  • Van Dyck, C., Frese, M., Baer, M., ve Sonnentag, S. (2005). Organizational error management culture and its impact on performance: A two-study replication. Journal of Applied Psychology, 90 (6), 1228-1240.
There are 37 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Subjects Operation
Journal Section Articles
Authors

Mehmet İnce 0000-0003-0612-3688

Onur Başar Özbozkurt 0000-0002-2325-2433

Publication Date March 31, 2020
Acceptance Date March 11, 2020
Published in Issue Year 2020 Volume: 15 Issue: 23

Cite

APA İnce, M., & Özbozkurt, O. B. (2020). Siyah Kuğuyu Yönetmek. OPUS International Journal of Society Researches, 15(23), 2164-2177. https://doi.org/10.26466/opus.686105