Research Article
Year 2019,
Volume: 5 Issue: 2, 101 - 107, 24.12.2019
Abstract
The amount of beef production of Turkey could not reach desired level in spite of the supports. As a result, the demand of beef meat has not been sufficiently fulfilled, consumer price has continuously increased and the amount of import has also risen so as to control the demand-supply and price balance in the market. Therefore, forecasting the amount of beef production is indispensable to evaluate the structural problems of the livestock sector. The objective of this study was to forecast the amount of beef production of Turkey from the period of 2019 to 2028. The data of this study was obtained from the databases of Food and Agriculture Organization and Turkish Statistical Institute. The time series of the amount of beef production for the period 1961-2018 was used for forecasting via Box-Jenkins Model and ARIMA (2, 2, 2) was determined as the most appropriate model. The results of the study revealed that the amount of beef production would regularly rise in the next ten-year period and would be 1019754 tons in 2019 and 1163534 tons in 2028. This research concluded that the government should provide necessary supports to lessen the production costs and enhance productivity in order to produce forecasted amounts without high level of imports.
References
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- Çelik, C., Sarıözkan, S., 2017. Economic Analysis of Cattle Fattening Enterprises in the Centre of Kırşehir Province. Harran University, Journal of the Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, 6(1): 38-45.
- Çelik, Ş., 2012. The Modeling of Annual Red Meat Production of Turkey by Using Box-Jenkins Method and Projection of Production, Hayvansal Üretim, 53(2): 32-39.
- Cenan, N., Gürcan, İ.S., 2011. Forward projection of the number of farm animals of Turkey: ARIMA modeling, J. of the Turkish Veterinary Medical Society, 82(1): 35-42.
- Chatfield, C., 2003. The Analysis of Time Series: An Introduction. Boca Raton, FL: CRC Press.
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- FAO, 2019b. Food and Agriculture Organization, Databases, Production, Livestock Primary. http://www.fao.org/ faostat/ e/# data/ QVL. (Accessed: 18.09.2019).
- Gözener, B., Sayılı, M. 2015. Production cost and factors affecting live weight gain in cattle fattening in the Turhal district of Tokat province. Journal of Agricultural Sciences, 21(2): 288-299.
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- MFLA. 2015. Strategy of Red Meat. Ministry of Food Agriculture and Livestock, General Directorate of Livestock, Ankara.
- Özen, D., Tekindal, M. A., Çevrimli, M. B., 2019. Modeling and Forecasting Meat Consumption per Capita in Turkey. Journal of Faculty of Medicine, Erciyes University, 16(2): 122-129.
- TURKSTAT, 2019a. Turkish Statistical Institute, Main Statistics, Livestock Production. https://biruni. tuik.gov.tr/medas/?kn=92&locale =tr (Accessed: 25.09.2019).
- TURKSTAT, 2019b. Turkish Statistical Institute, Main Statistics, Price of Animal Product. https://biruni.tuik.gov.tr/medas/?kn=92 &locale=tr (Accessed: 25.09.2019)
- TURKSTAT, 2019c. Turkish Statistical Institute, Statistics by Theme, Foreign Trade. https://biruni.tuik.gov.tr/ medas/?kn=92&locale =tr (Accessed: 25.09.2019).
- Yavuz, F., Bilgiç, A., Terin, M., Güler, I. O., 2013. Policy implications of trends in Turkey's meat sector with respect to 2023 vision, Meat Science, 95: 798-804.
- Zaharim, A., Razali, A. M., Gim, T. P., Sopian, K., 2009. Time Series Analysis of Solar Radiation Data in The Tropics, Euro. J. Sci. Res, 25: 672–678.
Year 2019,
Volume: 5 Issue: 2, 101 - 107, 24.12.2019
Abstract
References
- Akgül, S., Yıldız, Ş., 2016. Red Meat Production Forecast and Policy Recommendations in Line with 2023 Targets in Turkey. European Journal of Multidisciplinary Studies, 1(2): 432-439.
- Alhas Eroğlu, N., 2017. The impacts of livestock supports on production and income of the cattle farms in Samsun. Ondokuz Mayis University, Agricultural Economics, PhD Thesis, Samsun, pg 228.
- Anonymous, 2016. http://www.tuketbir.org.tr /basin_ detay.asp?gidenID=MzI= (Accessed: 25.09.2019).
- Box, G. E. P., Jenkins, G. M., Reinsel, G. C., 1970. Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control. San Francisco, CA: Holden-Day.
- Bowerman, B. L., Richard, T. O. C., Koehler, A. B., 2005. Forecasting, Time Series, and Regression: An Applied Approach. Belmont, CA: Thomson Brooks/Cole.
- Çelik, C., Sarıözkan, S., 2017. Economic Analysis of Cattle Fattening Enterprises in the Centre of Kırşehir Province. Harran University, Journal of the Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, 6(1): 38-45.
- Çelik, Ş., 2012. The Modeling of Annual Red Meat Production of Turkey by Using Box-Jenkins Method and Projection of Production, Hayvansal Üretim, 53(2): 32-39.
- Cenan, N., Gürcan, İ.S., 2011. Forward projection of the number of farm animals of Turkey: ARIMA modeling, J. of the Turkish Veterinary Medical Society, 82(1): 35-42.
- Chatfield, C., 2003. The Analysis of Time Series: An Introduction. Boca Raton, FL: CRC Press.
- FAO, 2019a. Food and Agriculture Organization, Databases, Production, Value of Agricultural Production. http://www.fao.org/ faostat/e/#data/QV. (Accessed: 18.09.2019).
- FAO, 2019b. Food and Agriculture Organization, Databases, Production, Livestock Primary. http://www.fao.org/ faostat/ e/# data/ QVL. (Accessed: 18.09.2019).
- Gözener, B., Sayılı, M. 2015. Production cost and factors affecting live weight gain in cattle fattening in the Turhal district of Tokat province. Journal of Agricultural Sciences, 21(2): 288-299.
- MD (Ministry of Development). 2018. 11. Development Plan, Competitive Production in Agriculture and Food, Special Commission Report, Ankara.
- MFLA. 2015. Strategy of Red Meat. Ministry of Food Agriculture and Livestock, General Directorate of Livestock, Ankara.
- Özen, D., Tekindal, M. A., Çevrimli, M. B., 2019. Modeling and Forecasting Meat Consumption per Capita in Turkey. Journal of Faculty of Medicine, Erciyes University, 16(2): 122-129.
- TURKSTAT, 2019a. Turkish Statistical Institute, Main Statistics, Livestock Production. https://biruni. tuik.gov.tr/medas/?kn=92&locale =tr (Accessed: 25.09.2019).
- TURKSTAT, 2019b. Turkish Statistical Institute, Main Statistics, Price of Animal Product. https://biruni.tuik.gov.tr/medas/?kn=92 &locale=tr (Accessed: 25.09.2019)
- TURKSTAT, 2019c. Turkish Statistical Institute, Statistics by Theme, Foreign Trade. https://biruni.tuik.gov.tr/ medas/?kn=92&locale =tr (Accessed: 25.09.2019).
- Yavuz, F., Bilgiç, A., Terin, M., Güler, I. O., 2013. Policy implications of trends in Turkey's meat sector with respect to 2023 vision, Meat Science, 95: 798-804.
- Zaharim, A., Razali, A. M., Gim, T. P., Sopian, K., 2009. Time Series Analysis of Solar Radiation Data in The Tropics, Euro. J. Sci. Res, 25: 672–678.
There are 20 citations in total.
Details
| Primary Language | English |
|---|---|
| Subjects | Agricultural Policy |
| Journal Section | Research Article |
| Authors | |
| Publication Date | December 24, 2019 |
| Published in Issue | Year 2019 Volume: 5 Issue: 2 |