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Homogeneity and Change Point Detection Analysis of Seasonal and Annual Precipitation and Temperature Series Van, Türkiye

Yıl 2023, Cilt: 28 Sayı: 3, 1012 - 1028, 29.12.2023
https://doi.org/10.53433/yyufbed.1204538

Öz

The quality and consistency of historical temperature and precipitation records are extremely important to researchers who study water resources, hydrological processes, and climate change. In this regard, Homogeneity tests are helpful tools for managing the accuracy and consistency of the data. In this study, the homogeneity of long-term annual and seasonal precipitation and temperature records obtained from five meteorological stations located in Van, Turkey, is examined using Standard Normal Homogeneity (SNHT), Pettitt (PT), Buishand Range (BR), and Cumulative Deviation (CD) tests at a significance level of 0.05. Finally, change-points were determined for each station where the homogeneity was disturbed. As a result of the study, there is mostly homogeneity in the precipitation data, and the homogeneity in the temperature data is deteriorated. The results of this study constitute a source of information in terms of the reliability of the meteorological data series. As a result, the reliability of the data should be questioned in the hydrological studies to be carried out in the Van region and the data should be made reliable in the projects to be carried out.

Kaynakça

  • Agha, O., Bağçacı, S. Ç., & Şarlak, N. (2017). Homogeneity analysis of precipitation series in North Iraq. IOSR Journal of Applied Geology and Geophysics, 5(3), 57-63. doi:10.9790/0990-0503025763
  • Ahmad, N. H., & Deni, S. M. (2013). Homogeneity test on daily rainfall series for Malaysia. Matematika: Malaysian Journal of Industrial and Applied Mathematics, 29, 141-150.
  • Alexandersson, H. (1986). A homogeneity test applied to precipitation data. Journal of Climatology, 6(6), 661-675. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3370060607
  • Alexandersson, H., & Moberg, A. (1997). Homogenization of Swedish temperature data. Part I: Homogeneity test for linear trends. International Journal of Climatology: A Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 17(1), 25-34. doi:10.1002/(SICI)1097-0088(199701)17:1<25::AID-JOC103>3.0.CO;2-J
  • Ay, M. (2020). Trend and homogeneity analysis in temperature and rainfall series in western Black Sea region, Turkey. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 139(3-4), 837-848. doi:10.1007/s00704-019-03066-6
  • Buishand, T. A. (1982). Some methods for testing the homogeneity of rainfall records. Journal of Hydrology, 58(1-2), 11-27. doi:10.1016/0022-1694(82)90066-X
  • Dikbas, F., Firat, M., Koc, A. C., & Güngör, M. (2010). Homogeneity test for Turkish temperature series. Paper presented at the 4th BALWOIS 2010 International Conference.
  • Elzeiny, R., Khadr, M., Zahran, S., & Rashwan, E. (2019). Homogeneity analysis of rainfall series in the Upper Blue Nile River Basin, Ethiopia. Journal of Engineering Research, 3, 46-53. https://doi.org/10.21608/erjeng.2019.125704
  • Hawkins, D. M. (1977). Testing a sequence of observations for a shift in location. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 72(357), 180-186. doi:10.1080/01621459.1977.10479935
  • Hırca, T., Eryılmaz Türkkan, G. & Niazkar, M. (2022) Applications of innovative polygonal trend analyses to precipitation series of Eastern Black Sea Basin, Turkey. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 147, 651-667. doi:10.1007/s00704-021-03837-0
  • Hırca, T., & Eryılmaz Türkkan, G. (2022) Comparison of Statistical Methods to Graphical Method in Precipitation Trend Analysis, A Case Study: Coruh Basin, Turkey. Iranian Journal of Science and Technology, Transactions of Civil Engineering, 46, 4605-4617. doi:10.1007/s40996-022-00869-y
  • Ho Ming, K., & Yusof, F. (2012). Homogeneity tests on daily rainfall series in Peninsular Malaysia. Int. Journal of Contemporary Mathematics and Sciences, 7(1), 9-22.
  • Jaruskova, D. (1996). Change-point detection in meteorological measurement. Monthly Weather Review, 124(7), 1535. doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1996)124<1535:CPDIMM>2.0.CO;2
  • Karl, T. R., & Williams Jr, C. N. (1987). An approach to adjusting climatological time series for discontinuous inhomogeneities. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 26(12), 1744-1763. doi:10.1175/1520-0450(1987)026<1744:AATACT>2.0.CO;2
  • Kazemzadeh, M., & Malekian, A. (2018). Homogeneity analysis of streamflow records in arid and semi-arid regions of northwestern Iran. Journal of Arid Land, 10(4), 493-506. doi:10.1007/s40333-018-0064-4
  • Khaliq, M. N., & Ouarda, T. B. (2007). On the critical values of the standard normal homogeneity test (SNHT). International Journal of Climatology: A Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 27(5), 681-687. doi:10.1002/joc.1438
  • Koycegız, C., & Buyukyıldız, M. (2020). Determination of change point and trend analysis of annual temperature data in Konya closed basin (Turkey). Niğde Ömer Halisdemir Üniversitesi Mühendislik Bilimleri Dergisi, 9(1), 393-404. doi:10.28948/ngumuh.598289
  • Pettitt, A. N. (1979). A non‐parametric approach to the change‐point problem. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series C (Applied Statistics), 28(2), 126-135. doi:10.2307/2346729
  • Şahin, S., & Cığızoğlu, H. K. (2010). Homogeneity analysis of Turkish meteorological data set. Hydrological Processes: An International Journal, 24(8), 981-992. doi:10.1002/hyp.7534
  • Şaroğlu, F., & Yılmaz, Y. (1986). Doğu Anadolu’da neotektonik dönemdeki jeolojik evrim ve havza modelleri. MTA dergisi, 107, 73-94.
  • Şenocak, S., & Emek, M. F. (2019). Trend analizi yöntemleri kullanılarak Doğu Anadolu Bölgesi aylık yağış miktarlarının değerlendirilmesi. Avrupa Bilim ve Teknoloji Dergisi, 17, 807-822. doi:10.31590/ejosat.646266
  • Wijngaard, J., Klein Tank, A., & Können, G. (2003). Homogeneity of 20th century European daily temperature and precipitation series. International Journal of Climatology: A Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 23(6), 679-692. doi:10.1002/joc.906
  • Wong, H., Hu, B., Ip, W., & Xia, J. (2006). Change-point analysis of hydrological time series using grey relational method. Journal of Hydrology, 324(1-4), 323-338. doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2005.10.007
  • Yaman, B., & Ertuğrul, M. (2020). Change-point detection and trend analysis in monthly, seasonal and annual air temperature and precipitation series in Bartın province in the western Black Sea region of Turkey. Geology, Geophysics and Environment, 46(3), 223-223. doi:10.7494/geol.2020.46.3.223
  • Yılmaz. (2021). Kuzey Atlantik salınımının Karadeniz Bölgesi yağış ve sıcaklıkları üzerindeki etkisi. (M.Sc Thesis), KTO Karatay University, Lisansüstü Eğitim Enstitüsü, Konya, Türkiye.
  • Yildirim, G., & Rahman, A. (2022). Homogeneity and trend analysis of rainfall and droughts over Southeast Australia. Natural Hazards, 112(2), 1657-1683. doi:10.1007/s11069-022-05243-9
  • Yozgatligil, C., & Yazici, C. (2016). Comparison of homogeneity tests for temperature using a simulation study. International Journal of Climatology, 36(1), 62-81. doi:10.1002/joc.4329
  • Yuce, M. I., Esit, M., & Kalaycioglu, V. (2022). Investigation of trends in extreme events: a case study of Ceyhan Basin, Turkey. Journal of Applied Water Engineering and Research, 11(3), 1-16. doi:10.1080/23249676.2022.2113462
  • Yuce, M. I., & Esit, M. (2021). Drought monitoring in Ceyhan basin, Turkey. Journal of Applied Water Engineering and Research, 9(4), 293-314. doi:10.1080/23249676.2021.1932616
  • Yüce, M. İ., Aksoy, H., Onoz, B., Çetin, M., Eriş, E., Eşit, M., …, & Kalaci, V. (2019). İklim değişikliğinin yağişlar üzerine etkisi: Kahramanmaraş ve Osmaniye örneği. 10. Ulusal Hidroloji Kongresi, Muğla Sıtkı Koçman Üniversitesi, Muğla.
  • Yüce, Ş., Ercan, B., Musa, E., Ünsal, M., & Yüce, M. İ. (2018). Seyhan Havzası yağış verilerinin eğilim analizi. İklim Değişikliği ve Çevre, 3(2), 47-54.

Mevsimsel ve Yıllık Yağış ve Sıcaklık Serilerinin Homojenlik ve Değişim Noktası Tespit Analizi Van, Türkiye

Yıl 2023, Cilt: 28 Sayı: 3, 1012 - 1028, 29.12.2023
https://doi.org/10.53433/yyufbed.1204538

Öz

Su kaynakları, hidrolojik süreçler ve iklim değişikliği alanlarını inceleyen araştırmacılar, tarihsel sıcaklık ve yağış serilerinin doğruluğuna ve tutarlılığına büyük önem vermektedir. Bu bağlamda, Homojenlik testleri, verilerin doğruluğunu ve tutarlılığını yönetmek için yararlı araçlardır. Bu çalışmada, Türkiye'nin Van ilinde bulunan beş meteoroloji istasyonundan alınan uzun süreli yıllık ve mevsimsel yağış ve sıcaklık kayıtlarının homojenliği, Standart Normal Homojenlik (SNHT), Pettitt (PT), Buishand Range (BR) ve Kümülatif Sapma (CD) testleri kullanılarak 0.05 anlamlılık düzeyinde incelenmiştir. Son olarak homojenliğin bozulduğu her istasyon için kırılma noktaları tespit edilmiştir. Çalışmanın sonucunda yağış verilerinde çoğunlukla homojenliğin olduğu sıcaklık verilerinde ise homojenliğinin bozulduğu söylenebilir. Bu çalışmanın sonuçları, meteorolojik veri serilerinin güvenilirliği açısından bir bilgi kaynağı oluşturmaktadır. Sonuç olarak Van bölgesinde yapılacak olan hidrolojik çalışmalarda verilerin güvenilirliği sorgulanmalı ve yapılacak projelerde verilerin güvenilir hale getirilmesi gerekmektedir.

Kaynakça

  • Agha, O., Bağçacı, S. Ç., & Şarlak, N. (2017). Homogeneity analysis of precipitation series in North Iraq. IOSR Journal of Applied Geology and Geophysics, 5(3), 57-63. doi:10.9790/0990-0503025763
  • Ahmad, N. H., & Deni, S. M. (2013). Homogeneity test on daily rainfall series for Malaysia. Matematika: Malaysian Journal of Industrial and Applied Mathematics, 29, 141-150.
  • Alexandersson, H. (1986). A homogeneity test applied to precipitation data. Journal of Climatology, 6(6), 661-675. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3370060607
  • Alexandersson, H., & Moberg, A. (1997). Homogenization of Swedish temperature data. Part I: Homogeneity test for linear trends. International Journal of Climatology: A Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 17(1), 25-34. doi:10.1002/(SICI)1097-0088(199701)17:1<25::AID-JOC103>3.0.CO;2-J
  • Ay, M. (2020). Trend and homogeneity analysis in temperature and rainfall series in western Black Sea region, Turkey. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 139(3-4), 837-848. doi:10.1007/s00704-019-03066-6
  • Buishand, T. A. (1982). Some methods for testing the homogeneity of rainfall records. Journal of Hydrology, 58(1-2), 11-27. doi:10.1016/0022-1694(82)90066-X
  • Dikbas, F., Firat, M., Koc, A. C., & Güngör, M. (2010). Homogeneity test for Turkish temperature series. Paper presented at the 4th BALWOIS 2010 International Conference.
  • Elzeiny, R., Khadr, M., Zahran, S., & Rashwan, E. (2019). Homogeneity analysis of rainfall series in the Upper Blue Nile River Basin, Ethiopia. Journal of Engineering Research, 3, 46-53. https://doi.org/10.21608/erjeng.2019.125704
  • Hawkins, D. M. (1977). Testing a sequence of observations for a shift in location. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 72(357), 180-186. doi:10.1080/01621459.1977.10479935
  • Hırca, T., Eryılmaz Türkkan, G. & Niazkar, M. (2022) Applications of innovative polygonal trend analyses to precipitation series of Eastern Black Sea Basin, Turkey. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 147, 651-667. doi:10.1007/s00704-021-03837-0
  • Hırca, T., & Eryılmaz Türkkan, G. (2022) Comparison of Statistical Methods to Graphical Method in Precipitation Trend Analysis, A Case Study: Coruh Basin, Turkey. Iranian Journal of Science and Technology, Transactions of Civil Engineering, 46, 4605-4617. doi:10.1007/s40996-022-00869-y
  • Ho Ming, K., & Yusof, F. (2012). Homogeneity tests on daily rainfall series in Peninsular Malaysia. Int. Journal of Contemporary Mathematics and Sciences, 7(1), 9-22.
  • Jaruskova, D. (1996). Change-point detection in meteorological measurement. Monthly Weather Review, 124(7), 1535. doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1996)124<1535:CPDIMM>2.0.CO;2
  • Karl, T. R., & Williams Jr, C. N. (1987). An approach to adjusting climatological time series for discontinuous inhomogeneities. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 26(12), 1744-1763. doi:10.1175/1520-0450(1987)026<1744:AATACT>2.0.CO;2
  • Kazemzadeh, M., & Malekian, A. (2018). Homogeneity analysis of streamflow records in arid and semi-arid regions of northwestern Iran. Journal of Arid Land, 10(4), 493-506. doi:10.1007/s40333-018-0064-4
  • Khaliq, M. N., & Ouarda, T. B. (2007). On the critical values of the standard normal homogeneity test (SNHT). International Journal of Climatology: A Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 27(5), 681-687. doi:10.1002/joc.1438
  • Koycegız, C., & Buyukyıldız, M. (2020). Determination of change point and trend analysis of annual temperature data in Konya closed basin (Turkey). Niğde Ömer Halisdemir Üniversitesi Mühendislik Bilimleri Dergisi, 9(1), 393-404. doi:10.28948/ngumuh.598289
  • Pettitt, A. N. (1979). A non‐parametric approach to the change‐point problem. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series C (Applied Statistics), 28(2), 126-135. doi:10.2307/2346729
  • Şahin, S., & Cığızoğlu, H. K. (2010). Homogeneity analysis of Turkish meteorological data set. Hydrological Processes: An International Journal, 24(8), 981-992. doi:10.1002/hyp.7534
  • Şaroğlu, F., & Yılmaz, Y. (1986). Doğu Anadolu’da neotektonik dönemdeki jeolojik evrim ve havza modelleri. MTA dergisi, 107, 73-94.
  • Şenocak, S., & Emek, M. F. (2019). Trend analizi yöntemleri kullanılarak Doğu Anadolu Bölgesi aylık yağış miktarlarının değerlendirilmesi. Avrupa Bilim ve Teknoloji Dergisi, 17, 807-822. doi:10.31590/ejosat.646266
  • Wijngaard, J., Klein Tank, A., & Können, G. (2003). Homogeneity of 20th century European daily temperature and precipitation series. International Journal of Climatology: A Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 23(6), 679-692. doi:10.1002/joc.906
  • Wong, H., Hu, B., Ip, W., & Xia, J. (2006). Change-point analysis of hydrological time series using grey relational method. Journal of Hydrology, 324(1-4), 323-338. doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2005.10.007
  • Yaman, B., & Ertuğrul, M. (2020). Change-point detection and trend analysis in monthly, seasonal and annual air temperature and precipitation series in Bartın province in the western Black Sea region of Turkey. Geology, Geophysics and Environment, 46(3), 223-223. doi:10.7494/geol.2020.46.3.223
  • Yılmaz. (2021). Kuzey Atlantik salınımının Karadeniz Bölgesi yağış ve sıcaklıkları üzerindeki etkisi. (M.Sc Thesis), KTO Karatay University, Lisansüstü Eğitim Enstitüsü, Konya, Türkiye.
  • Yildirim, G., & Rahman, A. (2022). Homogeneity and trend analysis of rainfall and droughts over Southeast Australia. Natural Hazards, 112(2), 1657-1683. doi:10.1007/s11069-022-05243-9
  • Yozgatligil, C., & Yazici, C. (2016). Comparison of homogeneity tests for temperature using a simulation study. International Journal of Climatology, 36(1), 62-81. doi:10.1002/joc.4329
  • Yuce, M. I., Esit, M., & Kalaycioglu, V. (2022). Investigation of trends in extreme events: a case study of Ceyhan Basin, Turkey. Journal of Applied Water Engineering and Research, 11(3), 1-16. doi:10.1080/23249676.2022.2113462
  • Yuce, M. I., & Esit, M. (2021). Drought monitoring in Ceyhan basin, Turkey. Journal of Applied Water Engineering and Research, 9(4), 293-314. doi:10.1080/23249676.2021.1932616
  • Yüce, M. İ., Aksoy, H., Onoz, B., Çetin, M., Eriş, E., Eşit, M., …, & Kalaci, V. (2019). İklim değişikliğinin yağişlar üzerine etkisi: Kahramanmaraş ve Osmaniye örneği. 10. Ulusal Hidroloji Kongresi, Muğla Sıtkı Koçman Üniversitesi, Muğla.
  • Yüce, Ş., Ercan, B., Musa, E., Ünsal, M., & Yüce, M. İ. (2018). Seyhan Havzası yağış verilerinin eğilim analizi. İklim Değişikliği ve Çevre, 3(2), 47-54.
Toplam 31 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil İngilizce
Konular Mühendislik
Bölüm Mühendislik ve Mimarlık / Engineering and Architecture
Yazarlar

İslam Yaşa 0000-0002-4809-9471

Mehmet İshak Yüce 0000-0002-6267-9528

Musa Eşit 0000-0003-4509-7283

Yayımlanma Tarihi 29 Aralık 2023
Gönderilme Tarihi 15 Kasım 2022
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2023 Cilt: 28 Sayı: 3

Kaynak Göster

APA Yaşa, İ., Yüce, M. İ., & Eşit, M. (2023). Homogeneity and Change Point Detection Analysis of Seasonal and Annual Precipitation and Temperature Series Van, Türkiye. Yüzüncü Yıl Üniversitesi Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü Dergisi, 28(3), 1012-1028. https://doi.org/10.53433/yyufbed.1204538