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Assessment of Key Factors Affecting Farmers' Migration Intentions Due to the Syrian Conflict

Year 2024, Volume: 27 Issue: 6, 1475 - 1483, 07.11.2024

Kuteybe Gannum , Cuma Akbay , Cevahir Kaynakçı

https://doi.org/10.18016/ksutarimdoga.vi.1442430

Abstract

This study aims to identify the migration patterns of Syrian farmers in northern Aleppo and to investigate the main factors affecting their migration patterns. In this context, the study data were obtained through face-to-face surveys with a total of 210 farmers from 17 villages in three administrative districts of Aleppo Governorate using a proportional sampling method. The data were analyzed using descriptive statistics and a logistic regression model. According to the results of the study, education level, land size, and household income were found to decrease the tendency to migrate. On the other hand, the factors that increase the tendency of farmers to migrate include being temporarily settled in the region and having family members abroad as refugees. As the war-induced environment has reduced participation in non-agricultural work, more farmers consider agriculture as their main source of livelihood.

Keywords

Syria Conflict Migration Migration intentions Agriculture

References

  • Agır, B. & Akbay, C. (2018). Üreticilerin Besi Sığırcılığı Desteklerinden Yararlanması Üzerine Etkili Faktörler. KSÜ Tarım ve Doğa Derg 21(5):,738-744
  • Ahmadzai, AK. & Akbay, C, (2020). The Factors Affecting Food Security in the Eastern Region of Afghanistan. KSU J. Agric Nat 23 (2), 112-124
  • Alrababah, A., Masterson, D., Casalis, M., Hangartner, D. & Weinstein, J. (2023). The Dynamics of Refugee Return: Syrian Refugees and Their Migration Intentions. British Journal of Political Science 53(4), 1108-1131.
  • Arias, M.A., Ibáñez, A.M. & Zambrano, A. (2014). Agricultural Production amidst Conflict: The Effects of Shocks, Uncertainty and Governance of Non-State Armed Actors. Working or Discussion Paper, University of Los Andes. “https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/209318”
  • Aslany, M., Carling, J., Mjelva, M.B. & Sommerfelt, T. (2021). Systematic Review of Determinants of Migration Aspirations. QuantMig Project Deliverable D2.2. Southampton: University of Southampton.
  • Azam, J.P. & Hoeffler, A. (2002). Violence against Civilians in Civil Wars: Looting or Terror? Journal of Peace Research 39(4), 461-485.
  • Balcilar, B. & Nugent, J.B. (2019). The migration of fear: An analysis of migration choices of Syrian refugees. The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance 73, 95-110.
  • Bertoli, S. & Ruyssen, I. (2018). Networks and intended destination. Journal of Economic Geography, 18(4), 705-728
  • Bohra-Mishra, O. & Massey, D.S. (2011). Individual decisions to migrate during civil conflict. Demography 48, 401–424.
  • Czaika, M. & Kis-Katos, K. (2009). Civil conflict and displacement: Village-level determinants of forced migration in Aceh. Journal of Peace Research 46, 399-418.
  • Carnegie Middle East Center, (2015). Food Insecurity in War-Torn Syria: From Decades of Self-Sufficiency to Food Dependence, June 04, 2015.
  • David, A., Mallakh, N. & Wahba, J. (2019). Internal versus international migration in Egypt: together or far apart. Economic Research Forum (ERF), Working Paper No. 1366. Cairo: Egypt.
  • Draper, N.R. & Smith, H. (1981). Applied Regression analysis, New York.
  • Engel, S. & Ibáñez, A.M. (2007). Displacement Due to Violence in Colombia: A Household Level Analysis. Economic Development and Cultural Change 55(2), 335-365.
  • FAO (2017). Counting the Cost: Agriculture in Syria after six years of crisis. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome, Italy. www.fao.org/3/b-i7081e.pdf (Accessed date: 10 January 2024).
  • FAO (2018). The impact of disasters and crises on agriculture and food security, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome.
  • Haran, V.P. (2016). Roots of the Syrian crisis. IPCS Special Report, 181.
  • Harmoon Center (2017). Agriculture: The Syrian Food Basket from Retreat to Disaster, September 16, 2017.
  • Hove, M. & Mutanda, D. (2015). The Syrian conflict 2011 to the present: Challenges and prospects. J. of Asian and African studies, 50(5), 559-570.
  • Ibanez, A.M. & Velez, C.E. (2008). Civil conflict and forced migration: The micro determinants and welfare losses of displacement in Colombia. World Development, 36, 659–676.
  • IOM (2015). Migration, displacement and development in a changing Arab region. International Organization for Migration, https://publications. iom.int/system/files/pdf/sit_rep_arb.pdf. (Accessed date: 10 January 2024).
  • IOM (2019). Glossary on Migration. International Organization for Migration, Switzerland. https://publications.iom.int/system/files/pdf/iml_34_glossary.pdf (Accessed date: 10 January 2024).
  • Jaubert, R., Munger, F. & Bosch, C. (2014). Syria: The impact of the conflict on population displacement, water and agriculture in the Orontes River basin. Geneva: Global Program, Water Initiatives Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation.
  • Justino, P. (2011). War and Poverty Oxford Handbook of the Economics of Peace and Security. M. R. Garfinkel and S. Skarpedas. Oxford, Oxford University Press.
  • Kelley, C.P., Mohtadi, S., Cane, M.A., Seager, R. & Kushnir, Y. (2015). Climate change in the Fertile Crescent and implications of the recent Syrian drought. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 201421533.
  • Khater, A. (2001). Inventing Home: Emigration, Gender, and the Middle Class in Lebanon. Berkeley: University of California Press.
  • Maharramov, M. 2022. Operation Euphrates Shield, Masaryk University, Conflict and Democracy Studies, Brno: 6 January 2022.
  • Migali, S. & Scipioni, M. (2019). Who’s About to Leave? A Global Survey of Aspirations and Intentions to Migrate. International Migration 57 (5), 181–200.
  • Mohammed, S.A., Alkerdi, A., Nagy, J. & Harsányi, E. (2020). Syrian crisis repercussions on the agricultural sector: A case study of wheat, cotton and olives. Regional Science Policy & Practice, 12(3), 519-537.
  • OCHA (2021). Water Crisis in Northern and Northeast Syria. Immediate Response and Funding Requirements. 9 September 2021.
  • Phillips, C. & Valbjørn, M. (2018). The Role of (Different) Identities in the Multiple Proxy Wars in Syria. Small Wars & Insurgencies, 29(3), 414-433.
  • Ruhe, C., & Kuhnt, J. (2023). Who Wants to Leave? Global Survey Evidence on How Individual Emigration Aspirations Differ Between Peaceful and Conflict-Affected Contexts. International Migration Review, 0(0), 1-30.
  • SASG (2011). Syrian Agricultural Statistical Group for the year 2011, Ministry of Agriculture.
  • Sav, O. & Sayın, C. (2018). Tarımda Kalma Eğilimini Etkileyen Başlıca Faktörlerin Genel Bir Değerlendirmesi. KSÜ Tarım ve Doğa Dergisi 21(Özel Sayı), 190-197
  • UNHCR (2021). Syria page on the website of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR). https://www.unhcr.org (Accessed date: 18 January 2024).
  • UNHCR (2024). Global Forced Displacement in 2019. Global Trends in 2019. UNHCR, The UN Refugee Agency. https://www.unhcr.org/be/wp-content /uploads/sites/46/2020/07/Global-Trends-Report-2019.pdf (Accessed date: 18 January 2024).
  • Verwimp, P. & Maystadt, J.F. (2015). Forced displacement and refugees in Sub-Saharan Africa. The World Bank Group, policy research working paper 7517.
  • Walk, E., Garimella, K. & Christia, F. 2023. Displacement and return in the Internet Era: Social media for monitoring migration decisions in Northern Syria, World Development, 168, 106268.

Suriye Çatışması Sebebiyle Çiftçilerin Göç Niyetlerini Etkileyen Temel Faktörlerin Değerlendirilmesi

Year 2024, Volume: 27 Issue: 6, 1475 - 1483, 07.11.2024

Kuteybe Gannum , Cuma Akbay , Cevahir Kaynakçı

https://doi.org/10.18016/ksutarimdoga.vi.1442430

Abstract

Bu çalışma, Halep'in kuzeyindeki Suriyeli çiftçilerin göç şekillerini belirlemeyi ve göç etme niyetlerini etkileyen temel faktörleri araştırmayı amaçlamaktadır. Bu bağlamda çalışma verileri Halep Valiliği'nin üç ilçesindeki 17 köyde toplam 210 çiftçi ile oransal örnekleme yöntemi kullanılarak yüz yüze anket yoluyla elde edilmiştir. Veriler tanımlayıcı istatistikler ve lojistik regresyon modeli kullanılarak analiz edilmiştir. Araştırma sonuçlarına göre eğitim düzeyi, arazi büyüklüğü ve hane gelirinin göç eğilimini azalttığı tespit edilmiştir. Diğer taraftan, çiftçilerin göç eğilimini artıran faktörler arasında bölgeye geçici olarak yerleşmek ve aile bireylerinin yurt dışında mülteci olarak bulunması yer almaktadır. Savaşın neden olduğu ortam tarım dışı işlere katılımı azalttığından, giderek daha fazla çiftçi tarımı ana geçim kaynağı olarak görmektedir.

Keywords

Suriye Çatışma Göç Göç niyeti Tarım

References

  • Agır, B. & Akbay, C. (2018). Üreticilerin Besi Sığırcılığı Desteklerinden Yararlanması Üzerine Etkili Faktörler. KSÜ Tarım ve Doğa Derg 21(5):,738-744
  • Ahmadzai, AK. & Akbay, C, (2020). The Factors Affecting Food Security in the Eastern Region of Afghanistan. KSU J. Agric Nat 23 (2), 112-124
  • Alrababah, A., Masterson, D., Casalis, M., Hangartner, D. & Weinstein, J. (2023). The Dynamics of Refugee Return: Syrian Refugees and Their Migration Intentions. British Journal of Political Science 53(4), 1108-1131.
  • Arias, M.A., Ibáñez, A.M. & Zambrano, A. (2014). Agricultural Production amidst Conflict: The Effects of Shocks, Uncertainty and Governance of Non-State Armed Actors. Working or Discussion Paper, University of Los Andes. “https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/209318”
  • Aslany, M., Carling, J., Mjelva, M.B. & Sommerfelt, T. (2021). Systematic Review of Determinants of Migration Aspirations. QuantMig Project Deliverable D2.2. Southampton: University of Southampton.
  • Azam, J.P. & Hoeffler, A. (2002). Violence against Civilians in Civil Wars: Looting or Terror? Journal of Peace Research 39(4), 461-485.
  • Balcilar, B. & Nugent, J.B. (2019). The migration of fear: An analysis of migration choices of Syrian refugees. The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance 73, 95-110.
  • Bertoli, S. & Ruyssen, I. (2018). Networks and intended destination. Journal of Economic Geography, 18(4), 705-728
  • Bohra-Mishra, O. & Massey, D.S. (2011). Individual decisions to migrate during civil conflict. Demography 48, 401–424.
  • Czaika, M. & Kis-Katos, K. (2009). Civil conflict and displacement: Village-level determinants of forced migration in Aceh. Journal of Peace Research 46, 399-418.
  • Carnegie Middle East Center, (2015). Food Insecurity in War-Torn Syria: From Decades of Self-Sufficiency to Food Dependence, June 04, 2015.
  • David, A., Mallakh, N. & Wahba, J. (2019). Internal versus international migration in Egypt: together or far apart. Economic Research Forum (ERF), Working Paper No. 1366. Cairo: Egypt.
  • Draper, N.R. & Smith, H. (1981). Applied Regression analysis, New York.
  • Engel, S. & Ibáñez, A.M. (2007). Displacement Due to Violence in Colombia: A Household Level Analysis. Economic Development and Cultural Change 55(2), 335-365.
  • FAO (2017). Counting the Cost: Agriculture in Syria after six years of crisis. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome, Italy. www.fao.org/3/b-i7081e.pdf (Accessed date: 10 January 2024).
  • FAO (2018). The impact of disasters and crises on agriculture and food security, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome.
  • Haran, V.P. (2016). Roots of the Syrian crisis. IPCS Special Report, 181.
  • Harmoon Center (2017). Agriculture: The Syrian Food Basket from Retreat to Disaster, September 16, 2017.
  • Hove, M. & Mutanda, D. (2015). The Syrian conflict 2011 to the present: Challenges and prospects. J. of Asian and African studies, 50(5), 559-570.
  • Ibanez, A.M. & Velez, C.E. (2008). Civil conflict and forced migration: The micro determinants and welfare losses of displacement in Colombia. World Development, 36, 659–676.
  • IOM (2015). Migration, displacement and development in a changing Arab region. International Organization for Migration, https://publications. iom.int/system/files/pdf/sit_rep_arb.pdf. (Accessed date: 10 January 2024).
  • IOM (2019). Glossary on Migration. International Organization for Migration, Switzerland. https://publications.iom.int/system/files/pdf/iml_34_glossary.pdf (Accessed date: 10 January 2024).
  • Jaubert, R., Munger, F. & Bosch, C. (2014). Syria: The impact of the conflict on population displacement, water and agriculture in the Orontes River basin. Geneva: Global Program, Water Initiatives Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation.
  • Justino, P. (2011). War and Poverty Oxford Handbook of the Economics of Peace and Security. M. R. Garfinkel and S. Skarpedas. Oxford, Oxford University Press.
  • Kelley, C.P., Mohtadi, S., Cane, M.A., Seager, R. & Kushnir, Y. (2015). Climate change in the Fertile Crescent and implications of the recent Syrian drought. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 201421533.
  • Khater, A. (2001). Inventing Home: Emigration, Gender, and the Middle Class in Lebanon. Berkeley: University of California Press.
  • Maharramov, M. 2022. Operation Euphrates Shield, Masaryk University, Conflict and Democracy Studies, Brno: 6 January 2022.
  • Migali, S. & Scipioni, M. (2019). Who’s About to Leave? A Global Survey of Aspirations and Intentions to Migrate. International Migration 57 (5), 181–200.
  • Mohammed, S.A., Alkerdi, A., Nagy, J. & Harsányi, E. (2020). Syrian crisis repercussions on the agricultural sector: A case study of wheat, cotton and olives. Regional Science Policy & Practice, 12(3), 519-537.
  • OCHA (2021). Water Crisis in Northern and Northeast Syria. Immediate Response and Funding Requirements. 9 September 2021.
  • Phillips, C. & Valbjørn, M. (2018). The Role of (Different) Identities in the Multiple Proxy Wars in Syria. Small Wars & Insurgencies, 29(3), 414-433.
  • Ruhe, C., & Kuhnt, J. (2023). Who Wants to Leave? Global Survey Evidence on How Individual Emigration Aspirations Differ Between Peaceful and Conflict-Affected Contexts. International Migration Review, 0(0), 1-30.
  • SASG (2011). Syrian Agricultural Statistical Group for the year 2011, Ministry of Agriculture.
  • Sav, O. & Sayın, C. (2018). Tarımda Kalma Eğilimini Etkileyen Başlıca Faktörlerin Genel Bir Değerlendirmesi. KSÜ Tarım ve Doğa Dergisi 21(Özel Sayı), 190-197
  • UNHCR (2021). Syria page on the website of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR). https://www.unhcr.org (Accessed date: 18 January 2024).
  • UNHCR (2024). Global Forced Displacement in 2019. Global Trends in 2019. UNHCR, The UN Refugee Agency. https://www.unhcr.org/be/wp-content /uploads/sites/46/2020/07/Global-Trends-Report-2019.pdf (Accessed date: 18 January 2024).
  • Verwimp, P. & Maystadt, J.F. (2015). Forced displacement and refugees in Sub-Saharan Africa. The World Bank Group, policy research working paper 7517.
  • Walk, E., Garimella, K. & Christia, F. 2023. Displacement and return in the Internet Era: Social media for monitoring migration decisions in Northern Syria, World Development, 168, 106268.
There are 38 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language English
Subjects Agricultural Policy
Journal Section RESEARCH ARTICLE
Authors

Kuteybe Gannum 0000-0001-7673-7584

Cuma Akbay 0000-0001-7673-7584

Cevahir Kaynakçı 0000-0002-2366-362X

Early Pub Date August 15, 2024
Publication Date November 7, 2024
Submission Date February 26, 2024
Acceptance Date May 30, 2024
Published in Issue Year 2024Volume: 27 Issue: 6

Cite

APA Gannum, K., Akbay, C., & Kaynakçı, C. (2024). Assessment of Key Factors Affecting Farmers’ Migration Intentions Due to the Syrian Conflict. Kahramanmaraş Sütçü İmam Üniversitesi Tarım Ve Doğa Dergisi, 27(6), 1475-1483. https://doi.org/10.18016/ksutarimdoga.vi.1442430
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