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Exploring the Causal Relationship Among Trout Production, Price and Subsidy in Türkiye

Yıl 2023, Cilt: 26 Sayı: 3, 650 - 663, 30.06.2023

Mehmet Aydoğan Orhan Gündüz

https://doi.org/10.18016/ksutarimdoga.vi.1132332
Cited By: 1

Öz

Although there have been trout subsidies in Türkiye for many years, the fact that trout production has been below expectations, especially in recent years, has led to the need to investigate the effects of the subsidies. Thus, the present study was conducted to estimate the long-run relationship among trout production, producer price, and subsidy in Türkiye. The time-series data covering 1984-2016 regarding trout production, sales prices, and subsidies were used. The Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and Granger Causality Analysis were utilized to estimate the time-dependent causality relationship among the variables. The VECM results, which estimate the existence of a long-run relationship among the variables, revealed that 46.8% of the long-run deviations in the price and subsidy variables will be corrected in the next period. The analysis results indicated that sales prices affect trout production negatively in the long term. Granger causality analysis indicated that the prior period values of production and price variables were the reason for the changes in the subsidy variable. In the short-term VECM model, it was revealed that changes in production and prices positively affect the subsidy. A percent increase in production and price increased the subsidy amount by 1.79 and 3.14 percent, respectively. To increase trout production, the current subsidy policy should be revised to improve the infrastructure and capacity of aquaculture farms. Subsidies for the fishery sector should also be increased in real terms to achieve their objectives.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Türkiye Trout Subsidy Cointegration Granger causality

Kaynakça

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  • Cisneros-Montemayor, A.M., Sanjurjo, E., Munro, G.R., Hernández-Trejo, V., & Sumaila, U.R., (2016). Strategies and rationale for fishery subsidy reform. Marine Policy 69, 229-236. https://doi.org/10.1016/ j.marpol.2015.10.001
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Türkiye'de Alabalık Üretimi, Fiyatı ve Sübvansiyon Arasındaki Nedensel İlişkinin Araştırılması

Yıl 2023, Cilt: 26 Sayı: 3, 650 - 663, 30.06.2023

Mehmet Aydoğan Orhan Gündüz

https://doi.org/10.18016/ksutarimdoga.vi.1132332
Cited By: 1

Öz

Türkiye'de uzun yıllardır alabalık sübvansiyonları olmasına rağmen özellikle son yıllarda alabalık üretiminin beklentilerin altında kalması, sübvansiyonların etkilerinin araştırılması ihtiyacını doğurmuştur. Bu nedenle, bu çalışma Türkiye'de alabalık üretimi, üretici fiyatı ve sübvansiyon arasındaki uzun dönemli ilişkiyi tahmin etmek için yapılmıştır. Alabalık üretimi, satış fiyatları ve sübvansiyonlara ilişkin 1984-2016 yıllarını kapsayan zaman serisi verileri kullanılmıştır. Değişkenler arasındaki zamana bağlı nedensellik ilişkisini tahmin etmek için Vektör Hata Düzeltme Modeli (VECM) ve Granger Nedensellik Analizi kullanılmıştır. Değişkenler arasında uzun dönemli bir ilişkinin varlığını tahmin eden VECM sonuçları, fiyat ve sübvansiyon değişkenlerindeki uzun dönemli sapmaların %46.8'inin önümüzdeki dönemde düzeltileceğini ortaya koymuştur. Analiz sonuçları, satış fiyatlarının uzun vadede alabalık üretimini olumsuz etkilediğini göstermiştir. Granger nedensellik analizi, üretim ve fiyat değişkenlerinin önceki dönem değerlerinin sübvansiyon değişkenindeki değişimlerin nedeni olduğunu göstermiştir. Kısa vadeli VECM modelinde üretim ve fiyatlardaki değişimlerin sübvansiyonu olumlu etkilediği ortaya çıkmıştır. Üretim ve fiyattaki yüzde artış, sübvansiyon miktarını sırasıyla yüzde 1.79 ve yüzde 3.14 artırmaktadır. Alabalık üretimini artırmak için, su ürünleri çiftliklerinin altyapısını ve kapasitesini iyileştirmek için mevcut sübvansiyon politikası revize edilmelidir. Balıkçılık sektörüne yönelik sübvansiyonlar da amaçlarına ulaşmak için reel olarak artırılmalıdır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Alabalık Sübvansiyon Eşbütünleşme Granger nedensellik Türkiye

Kaynakça

  • Aktaş, C. (2009). Analysis of causality between exports, imports and economic growth in Turkey. KOSBED (18)2, 35-47.
  • Aktaş, E., Altıok, M., & Songur, M. (2015). Effects on agricultural production in different countries comparative analysis of agricultural support policies. Anadolu University J. Social Science 15(4), 55-74. https://doi.org/10.18037/ausbd.08912
  • Ali, I., Khan, I., Ali, H., Baz, K., Zhang, Q., Khan, A., & Huo, X. (2020). The impact of agriculture trade and exchange rate on economic growth of Pakistan: An NARDL and asymmetric analysis approach. Ciencia Rural 50(4), e20190005. https://doi.org/ 10.1590/0103-8478cr20190005
  • Aluko, O.A., & Adeyeye, P.O., (2020). Imports and economic growth in Africa: Testing for Granger Causality in the frequency domain. The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development 29(7), 850-864. https://doi.org/10.1080/09638199. 2020.1751870
  • Arisoy, H., (2020). Impact of agricultural supports on competitiveness of agricultural products. Agricultural Economics 66(6),286-295. https://doi.org/10.17221/416/2019-AGRICECON
  • Badurlar Öner, İ., (2008). Investigation of relationship between house prices and macroeconomic variables in Turkey. Anadolu University J. Social Science 8(1), 223-238.
  • Bayramoğlu, A.T., & Yurtkur, A.K., (2015). International factors on food and agricultural price determinations in Turkey. Anadolu University J. Social Science 15(2), 63-73.
  • Bayramoglu, B. (2019). Price interactions between wild and farmed products: Turkish Sea Bass and Sea Bream markets. Aquaculture Economics & Management 23(1), 111-132. https://doi.org/ 10.1080/13657305.2018.1510997
  • Binuomote, S.O., & Odeniyi, K. A., (2016). Investigating the effect of fertilizer subsidy on agricultural production and its implication on food security in Nigeria (1981-2012). Journal of Economics and Sustainable Development 7(11), 137-153.
  • Bostock, J., Lane, A., Hough, C., & Yamamoto, K., (2016). An assessment of the economic contribution of EU aquaculture production and the influence of policies for its sustainable development. Aquaculture International 24(3), 699-733. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10499-016-9992-1
  • Çelik, Ş., (2014). The determination of the long-term relationship among number of cattle, milk production and milk price: Periods of 1980 to 2013: The Turkish case. Turkish Journal of Agricultural Engineering Research 1(2), 196-202.
  • Çetintaş, H., (2004). Analysis of causality between exports, imports and economic growth in Turkey. KOSBED (18): 35-47.
  • Cisneros-Montemayor, A.M., Sanjurjo, E., Munro, G.R., Hernández-Trejo, V., & Sumaila, U.R., (2016). Strategies and rationale for fishery subsidy reform. Marine Policy 69, 229-236. https://doi.org/10.1016/ j.marpol.2015.10.001
  • Demirdöğen, A., (2020). Agricultural subsidies in Turkey (Orap presentation). V. Uluslararası Anadolu Tarım, Gıda, Çevre ve Biyoloji Kongresi 01-04 Ekim 2020, Çevrimiçi.
  • Diaz, C.L., (2000). The application of European 'Right to Know' laws to fishing subsidies: A technical briefing report. The Foundation for International Environmental Law and Development, UK.
  • Dickey, D.A., & Fuller, W.A., (1979). Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Journal of the American Statistical Association 74(366a), 427-431. https://doi.org/ 10.1080/01621459.1979.10482531
  • Engle, R.F., & Granger, C.W.J., (1987). Cointegration and error correction: representation, estimation, and testing. Econometrica 55: 251-276.
  • Erdal, G., & Erdal, H., (2008). The effects of premium payment in turkey agricultural supports system. JAFAG 25(1), 41-51.
  • Erdal, G., Erdal, H., & Ünlü, T., (2019). Analysis of premium system applied in Turkey and evaluation from the producer aspect (sample of Kadirli). Proc. 4th Int. Symp. Innov. Appro. Soc. Hum. Adm. Sci. (SETSCI’19), 4(8), 93-96.
  • EU (Europe Union) 2020. The Common Fisheries Policy (CFP). https://ec.europa.eu/fisheries/cfp_en (accessed on 10 October 2020).
  • FAO 2016. Aquaculture Big numbers. FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Technical Paper: 601. http://www.fao.org/3/a-i6317e.pdf (accessed on 01 December 2020).
  • FAO 2017. Global Aquaculture Production 1950-2018. http://www.fao.org/fishery/statistics/global-aquaculture-production/query/en (accessed on 01 December 2020).
  • Georgina, A.A., Ololade, Y.M., Abosede, A.A., & Afolakemi, A.O., (2020). Agricultural credit, cocoa exports and economic growth in Nigeria: An empirical perspective. International Journal of Academic Research in Economics and Management Sciences 12(1),18-30.
  • Guillen, J., Asche, F., Carvalho, N., Polanco, J.M.F., Llorente, I., Nielsen, R., & Villasante, S., (2019). Aquaculture subsidies in The European Union: Evolution, impact and potential for growth. Marine Policy 104,19-28. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpol. 2019.02.045
  • Hossain, M.S., (2012). Multivariate granger causality between economic growth, electricity consumption, exports and remittance for the panel of three SAARC countries. Global Journal of Management and Business Research 12(4), 41-54.
  • Hüsnüoğlu, N., (2018). The Relationship between hazelnut production and prices in Turkey: ARDL bounds testing approach. Social Sciences Research Journal 7(4), 24-41.
  • Işığıçok, E., (1994). Causality analysis in time series. Uludağ University Printing House, Bursa, 163 p.
  • Işik, H.B., & Bilgin, O., (2016). The effects of agricultural support policies on agricultural production: The case of Turkey (Oral presentation). 2nd Multidisciplinary Conference 02-04 October 2016, Madrid, Spain.
  • Jayne, T. S., Mason, N.M., Burke, W.J., & Ariga, J., (2018). Taking stock of africa’s second-generation agricultural input subsidy programs. Food Policy (75),1-14. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2018.01. 003
  • Johansen, S., (1988). Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 12(2-3), 231-254. https://doi.org/10.1016/0165-1889(88)90041-3
  • Johansen, S., (1991). Estimation and hypothesis testing of cointegration vectors in gaussian vector autoregressive models. Econometrica 59(6), 1551-1580. https://doi.org/10.2307/2938278
  • Koç, K., & İşlek, H., (2020). Causality relationship between agricultural support and agricultural production in BRICS-T countries: Bootstrap causality analysis. J Social Research and Behavioral Sciences 6(12), 285-295.
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  • Li, G., (2011). Analysis on increases in agricultural product prices since 2003 in China. Chinese Rural Economy (2), 11-21.
  • MacKinnon, J.G., (1996). Numerical distribution functions for unit root and cointegration tests. J Applied Econometrics 11(6), 601-618.
  • MAF 2017. Aquaculture Supports. https://www. tarimorman.gov.tr/Konular/Tarimsal-Destekler/ Hayvancilik-Desteklemeleri/Su-Urunler (accessed on 10 September 2020).
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  • Matchaya, G.C., (2020). Public spending on agriculture in Southern Africa: Sectoral and intra-sectoral impact and policy implications. J. Policy Model 42(6), 1228-1247. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpolmod. 2020.05.002
  • Menicou, M., Charalambides, M., & Vassiliou, V., (2010). A profit optimization decision support tool for the offshore aquaculture industry. IFAC Proceedings Volumes 43(17), 166-171. https:// doi.org/10.3182/20100908-3-PT-3007.00032
  • Munir, J., & Esteban, T.Z., (2011). Pass-through of international food prices to domestic inflation during and after the great recession: Evidence from a set of Latin American Economies. Revista Desarrollo y Sociedad (67), 135-179. https://doi.org/ 10.13043/dys.67.4
  • Muzammil, M., (2020). A Comparison of Agricultural, Industrial and Services Sector Impact on Trade Balance: A Case Study of Pakistan, MPRA Paper No. 95750. https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/ 95750/4/MPRA_paper_95750.pdf (accessed on 10 September 2020)
  • Nash, C.E., Iwamoto, R.N., & Mahnken, C.V., (2000). Aquaculture risk management and marine mammal interactions in The Pacific Northwest. Aquaculture 183(3-4), 307-323. https://doi.org/ 10.1016/S0044-8486(99)00300-2
  • Nguyen, G.V., Jolly, C.M., (2013). A cointegration analysis of seafood import demand in Caribbean countries. Applied Economics 45(6), 803-815. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2011.613771
  • Nikola, T.M., Kehinde, O., & Mile, P., (2017). Are agricultural subsidies efficient tool for agricultural sector of the Republic of Macedonia? Bulgarian Journal of Agricultural Science 23(3), 363-369.
  • Okumuş, M., (2012). Tarım Politikaları ve Zaman Serileri Analizi: Türkiye’de Pamuk Fiyatlarına Bir Uygulama (Tez No: 309865). [Yüksek Lisans Tezi, Adnan Menderes Üniversitesi Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü Tarim Ekonomisi Anabilim Dalı]. Yükseköğretim Kurulu Ulusal Tez Merkezi.
  • Orji, A., Ogbuabor, J.E., Anthony-Orji, O.I., Alisigwe, J.N., (2020). Agricultural financing and agricultural output growth in developing economies: Any causal linkage in Nigeria? International Journal of Finance, Insurance and Risk Management X(2), 34-43.
  • Othman, K., Omar, H., Fuad, H.A., Laidin, J., & Ramli, I.M., (2020). The causal impact of government support on the small strategic crop Industry: Malaysia's experience. Asian Journal of Agriculture and Development 10(1), 298-310. https://doi.org/10.18488/journal.1005/2020.10.1/1005.1.298.310
  • Oyakhilomen, O., & Zibah, R.G., (2013). Fishery production and economic growth in Nigeria: Pathway for sustainable economic development. The Journal of Sustainable Development in Africa 15(2), 99-109.
  • Oyetade, O.O., Asaleye, A., Popoola, O., & Lawal, A., (2020). Agricultural export and macroeconomic factors in Nigeria: The bound test approach. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy 10(2),165-169. https://doi.org/10.32479/ ijeep. 7148
  • Öztürk, S., & Baysan, İ., (2021). The meat imports in Turkey in the period of 2003-2017: A granger causality analysis. Journal of Pamukkale University Social Sciences Institute (42), 223-237.
  • Qian, J., Ito, S., Zhao, Z., Mu, Y., & Hou, L., (2015). Impact of agricultural subsidy policies on grain prices in China. Journal of the Faculty of Agriculture, Kyushu University 60(1), 273-279. https://doi.org/10.5109/1526325
  • Sakai, Y., Yagi, N., & Sumaila, U.R., (2019). Fishery subsidies: The interaction between science and policy. Fisheries Science 85(3), 439-447. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12562-019-01306-2
  • Şaşmaz, M., & Özel, Ö., (2019). Tarım sektörüne sağlanan mali teşviklerin tarım sektörü gelişimi üzerindeki etkisi: Türkiye örneği. Dumlupınar Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi (61), 50-65.
  • Sekhar, C.S.C., (2003). Volatility of agricultural prices-an analysis of major international and domestic markets. Working paper (No.103). Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (ICRIER), New Delhi.
  • Semerci, A., Kaya, Y., Şahin, İ., & Çıtak, N., (2012). The effect of subsidizing policy in oil crops production over sunflower planted areas and producer welfare in Turkey. Selcuk Journal of Agriculture and Food Sciences 26(2), 55-62.
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  • Trendov, N.M., Kehinde, O., & Mile, P., (2017). Are agricultural subsidies efficient tool for agricultural sector of the Republic of Macedonia? Bulgarian Journal of Agricultural Science (3), 363-369.
  • Turkstat, (2018). Fisheries Statistics. https://data. tuik.gov.tr/ (accessed on 01 December 2020)
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  • Wen, T., Wang, X.H., Yang, D., & Zhu, J., (2015). The behavioral characteristics, benefit mechanism and decision effect of farmers’ participation in cooperative economic organization under the new situation. Management World (7), 82-97.
  • Xie, H., & Wang. B., (2017). An empirical analysis of the impact of agricultural product price fluctuations on China’s grain yield. Sustainability 9(6), 906. https://doi.org/10.3390/su9060906
  • Yıldız, F., (2017). Türkiye’de merkezi yönetim bütçesinden yapılan tarımsal destekleme ödemelerinin tarımsal üretim üzerindeki etkisi: 2006–2016 dönemi. Sayıştay Dergisi (104), 45-63.
  • Yılmaz, E., & Yaşar, E., (2020). The impact of livestock supports in Turkey on domestic price of red meat. Journal of Business Economics 8(2), 81-94.
  • Zhan, S.W., Feng, Z.C., & Xiao, W., (2008). Analysis of the influence of grain price changes on the acreage of grain. Journal of Inner Mongolia Normal University 5, 54-58.
Toplam 75 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil İngilizce
Konular Ziraat, Veterinerlik ve Gıda Bilimleri
Bölüm ARAŞTIRMA MAKALESİ (Research Article)
Yazarlar

Mehmet Aydoğan 0000-0001-8427-5412

Orhan Gündüz 0000-0002-2357-0802

Erken Görünüm Tarihi 10 Nisan 2023
Yayımlanma Tarihi 30 Haziran 2023
Gönderilme Tarihi 17 Haziran 2022
Kabul Tarihi 11 Kasım 2022
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2023Cilt: 26 Sayı: 3

Kaynak Göster

APA Aydoğan, M., & Gündüz, O. (2023). Exploring the Causal Relationship Among Trout Production, Price and Subsidy in Türkiye. Kahramanmaraş Sütçü İmam Üniversitesi Tarım Ve Doğa Dergisi, 26(3), 650-663. https://doi.org/10.18016/ksutarimdoga.vi.1132332

Cited By

Eksik Veri ile Politika Analizi: Çiftçi Kayıt Sistemi Örneği
Tarım Ekonomisi Araştırmaları Dergisi
https://doi.org/10.61513/tead.1325235
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