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Exploring the Causal Relationship Among Trout Production, Price and Subsidy in Türkiye

Year 2023, Volume: 26 Issue: 3, 650 - 663, 30.06.2023

Mehmet Aydoğan , Orhan Gündüz

https://doi.org/10.18016/ksutarimdoga.vi.1132332
Cited By: 2

Abstract

Although there have been trout subsidies in Türkiye for many years, the fact that trout production has been below expectations, especially in recent years, has led to the need to investigate the effects of the subsidies. Thus, the present study was conducted to estimate the long-run relationship among trout production, producer price, and subsidy in Türkiye. The time-series data covering 1984-2016 regarding trout production, sales prices, and subsidies were used. The Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and Granger Causality Analysis were utilized to estimate the time-dependent causality relationship among the variables. The VECM results, which estimate the existence of a long-run relationship among the variables, revealed that 46.8% of the long-run deviations in the price and subsidy variables will be corrected in the next period. The analysis results indicated that sales prices affect trout production negatively in the long term. Granger causality analysis indicated that the prior period values of production and price variables were the reason for the changes in the subsidy variable. In the short-term VECM model, it was revealed that changes in production and prices positively affect the subsidy. A percent increase in production and price increased the subsidy amount by 1.79 and 3.14 percent, respectively. To increase trout production, the current subsidy policy should be revised to improve the infrastructure and capacity of aquaculture farms. Subsidies for the fishery sector should also be increased in real terms to achieve their objectives.

Keywords

Türkiye Trout Subsidy Cointegration Granger causality

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Türkiye'de Alabalık Üretimi, Fiyatı ve Sübvansiyon Arasındaki Nedensel İlişkinin Araştırılması

Year 2023, Volume: 26 Issue: 3, 650 - 663, 30.06.2023

Mehmet Aydoğan , Orhan Gündüz

https://doi.org/10.18016/ksutarimdoga.vi.1132332
Cited By: 2

Abstract

Türkiye'de uzun yıllardır alabalık sübvansiyonları olmasına rağmen özellikle son yıllarda alabalık üretiminin beklentilerin altında kalması, sübvansiyonların etkilerinin araştırılması ihtiyacını doğurmuştur. Bu nedenle, bu çalışma Türkiye'de alabalık üretimi, üretici fiyatı ve sübvansiyon arasındaki uzun dönemli ilişkiyi tahmin etmek için yapılmıştır. Alabalık üretimi, satış fiyatları ve sübvansiyonlara ilişkin 1984-2016 yıllarını kapsayan zaman serisi verileri kullanılmıştır. Değişkenler arasındaki zamana bağlı nedensellik ilişkisini tahmin etmek için Vektör Hata Düzeltme Modeli (VECM) ve Granger Nedensellik Analizi kullanılmıştır. Değişkenler arasında uzun dönemli bir ilişkinin varlığını tahmin eden VECM sonuçları, fiyat ve sübvansiyon değişkenlerindeki uzun dönemli sapmaların %46.8'inin önümüzdeki dönemde düzeltileceğini ortaya koymuştur. Analiz sonuçları, satış fiyatlarının uzun vadede alabalık üretimini olumsuz etkilediğini göstermiştir. Granger nedensellik analizi, üretim ve fiyat değişkenlerinin önceki dönem değerlerinin sübvansiyon değişkenindeki değişimlerin nedeni olduğunu göstermiştir. Kısa vadeli VECM modelinde üretim ve fiyatlardaki değişimlerin sübvansiyonu olumlu etkilediği ortaya çıkmıştır. Üretim ve fiyattaki yüzde artış, sübvansiyon miktarını sırasıyla yüzde 1.79 ve yüzde 3.14 artırmaktadır. Alabalık üretimini artırmak için, su ürünleri çiftliklerinin altyapısını ve kapasitesini iyileştirmek için mevcut sübvansiyon politikası revize edilmelidir. Balıkçılık sektörüne yönelik sübvansiyonlar da amaçlarına ulaşmak için reel olarak artırılmalıdır.

Keywords

Alabalık Sübvansiyon Eşbütünleşme Granger nedensellik Türkiye

References

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  • Ali, I., Khan, I., Ali, H., Baz, K., Zhang, Q., Khan, A., & Huo, X. (2020). The impact of agriculture trade and exchange rate on economic growth of Pakistan: An NARDL and asymmetric analysis approach. Ciencia Rural 50(4), e20190005. https://doi.org/ 10.1590/0103-8478cr20190005
  • Aluko, O.A., & Adeyeye, P.O., (2020). Imports and economic growth in Africa: Testing for Granger Causality in the frequency domain. The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development 29(7), 850-864. https://doi.org/10.1080/09638199. 2020.1751870
  • Arisoy, H., (2020). Impact of agricultural supports on competitiveness of agricultural products. Agricultural Economics 66(6),286-295. https://doi.org/10.17221/416/2019-AGRICECON
  • Badurlar Öner, İ., (2008). Investigation of relationship between house prices and macroeconomic variables in Turkey. Anadolu University J. Social Science 8(1), 223-238.
  • Bayramoğlu, A.T., & Yurtkur, A.K., (2015). International factors on food and agricultural price determinations in Turkey. Anadolu University J. Social Science 15(2), 63-73.
  • Bayramoglu, B. (2019). Price interactions between wild and farmed products: Turkish Sea Bass and Sea Bream markets. Aquaculture Economics & Management 23(1), 111-132. https://doi.org/ 10.1080/13657305.2018.1510997
  • Binuomote, S.O., & Odeniyi, K. A., (2016). Investigating the effect of fertilizer subsidy on agricultural production and its implication on food security in Nigeria (1981-2012). Journal of Economics and Sustainable Development 7(11), 137-153.
  • Bostock, J., Lane, A., Hough, C., & Yamamoto, K., (2016). An assessment of the economic contribution of EU aquaculture production and the influence of policies for its sustainable development. Aquaculture International 24(3), 699-733. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10499-016-9992-1
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  • Çetintaş, H., (2004). Analysis of causality between exports, imports and economic growth in Turkey. KOSBED (18): 35-47.
  • Cisneros-Montemayor, A.M., Sanjurjo, E., Munro, G.R., Hernández-Trejo, V., & Sumaila, U.R., (2016). Strategies and rationale for fishery subsidy reform. Marine Policy 69, 229-236. https://doi.org/10.1016/ j.marpol.2015.10.001
  • Demirdöğen, A., (2020). Agricultural subsidies in Turkey (Orap presentation). V. Uluslararası Anadolu Tarım, Gıda, Çevre ve Biyoloji Kongresi 01-04 Ekim 2020, Çevrimiçi.
  • Diaz, C.L., (2000). The application of European 'Right to Know' laws to fishing subsidies: A technical briefing report. The Foundation for International Environmental Law and Development, UK.
  • Dickey, D.A., & Fuller, W.A., (1979). Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Journal of the American Statistical Association 74(366a), 427-431. https://doi.org/ 10.1080/01621459.1979.10482531
  • Engle, R.F., & Granger, C.W.J., (1987). Cointegration and error correction: representation, estimation, and testing. Econometrica 55: 251-276.
  • Erdal, G., & Erdal, H., (2008). The effects of premium payment in turkey agricultural supports system. JAFAG 25(1), 41-51.
  • Erdal, G., Erdal, H., & Ünlü, T., (2019). Analysis of premium system applied in Turkey and evaluation from the producer aspect (sample of Kadirli). Proc. 4th Int. Symp. Innov. Appro. Soc. Hum. Adm. Sci. (SETSCI’19), 4(8), 93-96.
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  • FAO 2017. Global Aquaculture Production 1950-2018. http://www.fao.org/fishery/statistics/global-aquaculture-production/query/en (accessed on 01 December 2020).
  • Georgina, A.A., Ololade, Y.M., Abosede, A.A., & Afolakemi, A.O., (2020). Agricultural credit, cocoa exports and economic growth in Nigeria: An empirical perspective. International Journal of Academic Research in Economics and Management Sciences 12(1),18-30.
  • Guillen, J., Asche, F., Carvalho, N., Polanco, J.M.F., Llorente, I., Nielsen, R., & Villasante, S., (2019). Aquaculture subsidies in The European Union: Evolution, impact and potential for growth. Marine Policy 104,19-28. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpol. 2019.02.045
  • Hossain, M.S., (2012). Multivariate granger causality between economic growth, electricity consumption, exports and remittance for the panel of three SAARC countries. Global Journal of Management and Business Research 12(4), 41-54.
  • Hüsnüoğlu, N., (2018). The Relationship between hazelnut production and prices in Turkey: ARDL bounds testing approach. Social Sciences Research Journal 7(4), 24-41.
  • Işığıçok, E., (1994). Causality analysis in time series. Uludağ University Printing House, Bursa, 163 p.
  • Işik, H.B., & Bilgin, O., (2016). The effects of agricultural support policies on agricultural production: The case of Turkey (Oral presentation). 2nd Multidisciplinary Conference 02-04 October 2016, Madrid, Spain.
  • Jayne, T. S., Mason, N.M., Burke, W.J., & Ariga, J., (2018). Taking stock of africa’s second-generation agricultural input subsidy programs. Food Policy (75),1-14. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2018.01. 003
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There are 75 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language English
Subjects Agricultural, Veterinary and Food Sciences
Journal Section RESEARCH ARTICLE
Authors

Mehmet Aydoğan 0000-0001-8427-5412

Orhan Gündüz 0000-0002-2357-0802

Early Pub Date April 10, 2023
Publication Date June 30, 2023
Submission Date June 17, 2022
Acceptance Date November 11, 2022
Published in Issue Year 2023 Volume: 26 Issue: 3

Cite

APA Aydoğan, M., & Gündüz, O. (2023). Exploring the Causal Relationship Among Trout Production, Price and Subsidy in Türkiye. Kahramanmaraş Sütçü İmam Üniversitesi Tarım Ve Doğa Dergisi, 26(3), 650-663. https://doi.org/10.18016/ksutarimdoga.vi.1132332

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