Exploring the Causal Relationship Among Trout Production, Price and Subsidy in Türkiye

Mehmet Aydoğan; Orhan Gündüz

doi:10.18016/ksutarimdoga.vi.1132332

EN TR

Exploring the Causal Relationship Among Trout Production, Price and Subsidy in Türkiye

Abstract

Although there have been trout subsidies in Türkiye for many years, the fact that trout production has been below expectations, especially in recent years, has led to the need to investigate the effects of the subsidies. Thus, the present study was conducted to estimate the long-run relationship among trout production, producer price, and subsidy in Türkiye. The time-series data covering 1984-2016 regarding trout production, sales prices, and subsidies were used. The Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and Granger Causality Analysis were utilized to estimate the time-dependent causality relationship among the variables. The VECM results, which estimate the existence of a long-run relationship among the variables, revealed that 46.8% of the long-run deviations in the price and subsidy variables will be corrected in the next period. The analysis results indicated that sales prices affect trout production negatively in the long term. Granger causality analysis indicated that the prior period values of production and price variables were the reason for the changes in the subsidy variable. In the short-term VECM model, it was revealed that changes in production and prices positively affect the subsidy. A percent increase in production and price increased the subsidy amount by 1.79 and 3.14 percent, respectively. To increase trout production, the current subsidy policy should be revised to improve the infrastructure and capacity of aquaculture farms. Subsidies for the fishery sector should also be increased in real terms to achieve their objectives.

Keywords

Türkiye'de Alabalık Üretimi, Fiyatı ve Sübvansiyon Arasındaki Nedensel İlişkinin Araştırılması

Öz

Türkiye'de uzun yıllardır alabalık sübvansiyonları olmasına rağmen özellikle son yıllarda alabalık üretiminin beklentilerin altında kalması, sübvansiyonların etkilerinin araştırılması ihtiyacını doğurmuştur. Bu nedenle, bu çalışma Türkiye'de alabalık üretimi, üretici fiyatı ve sübvansiyon arasındaki uzun dönemli ilişkiyi tahmin etmek için yapılmıştır. Alabalık üretimi, satış fiyatları ve sübvansiyonlara ilişkin 1984-2016 yıllarını kapsayan zaman serisi verileri kullanılmıştır. Değişkenler arasındaki zamana bağlı nedensellik ilişkisini tahmin etmek için Vektör Hata Düzeltme Modeli (VECM) ve Granger Nedensellik Analizi kullanılmıştır. Değişkenler arasında uzun dönemli bir ilişkinin varlığını tahmin eden VECM sonuçları, fiyat ve sübvansiyon değişkenlerindeki uzun dönemli sapmaların %46.8'inin önümüzdeki dönemde düzeltileceğini ortaya koymuştur. Analiz sonuçları, satış fiyatlarının uzun vadede alabalık üretimini olumsuz etkilediğini göstermiştir. Granger nedensellik analizi, üretim ve fiyat değişkenlerinin önceki dönem değerlerinin sübvansiyon değişkenindeki değişimlerin nedeni olduğunu göstermiştir. Kısa vadeli VECM modelinde üretim ve fiyatlardaki değişimlerin sübvansiyonu olumlu etkilediği ortaya çıkmıştır. Üretim ve fiyattaki yüzde artış, sübvansiyon miktarını sırasıyla yüzde 1.79 ve yüzde 3.14 artırmaktadır. Alabalık üretimini artırmak için, su ürünleri çiftliklerinin altyapısını ve kapasitesini iyileştirmek için mevcut sübvansiyon politikası revize edilmelidir. Balıkçılık sektörüne yönelik sübvansiyonlar da amaçlarına ulaşmak için reel olarak artırılmalıdır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

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Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil

İngilizce

Konular

Ziraat, Veterinerlik ve Gıda Bilimleri

Bölüm

Araştırma Makalesi

Yazarlar

Mehmet Aydoğan ^*
0000-0001-8427-5412
Türkiye

Orhan Gündüz
0000-0002-2357-0802
Türkiye

Yayımlanma Tarihi

30 Haziran 2023

Gönderilme Tarihi

17 Haziran 2022

Kabul Tarihi

11 Kasım 2022

Yayımlandığı Sayı

Yıl 2023 Cilt: 26 Sayı: 3

DOI

https://doi.org/10.18016/ksutarimdoga.vi.1132332

IZ

https://izlik.org/JA56JM44WY

Kaynak Göster

RIS / Bibtex

APA

Aydoğan, M., & Gündüz, O. (2023). Exploring the Causal Relationship Among Trout Production, Price and Subsidy in Türkiye. Kahramanmaraş Sütçü İmam Üniversitesi Tarım ve Doğa Dergisi, 26(3), 650-663. https://doi.org/10.18016/ksutarimdoga.vi.1132332