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Analysis of Trend, Growth, and Instability Index in Output, Harvested Area, and Yield of Oil Palm Fruit in Nigeria

Year 2025, Volume: 28 Issue: 1, 219 - 231, 12.02.2025

Sunday Akpan , Edet Udoh , Glory Edet

https://doi.org/10.18016/ksutarimdoga.vi.1563097

Abstract

The research examined the trend, growth rate, and instability index related to the output, harvested area, and yield of oil palm fruit in Nigeria. Utilizing secondary data sourced from the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) covering the period from 1961 to 2022, the study revealed inconsistent patterns in the trend of output, harvested area, and yield of oil palm fruit across the specified timeframes. The compound growth rates identified were 1.11% for output, 1.03% for harvested area, and 0.08% for yield. The Cuddy-Della Valle instability index (CDI) and the Coppock Instability Index (COI) were calculated at 13.87 and 46.57 for output, 13.87 and 46.02 for harvested area, and 2.52 and 37.88 for yield, respectively. These instability indices were relatively low, indicating limited activity within the oil palm fruit sub-sector in Nigeria. A decomposition analysis of the total effect of the output showed that the area effect accounted for 94.20%, the yield effect for 3.19%, and the interactive effect for 2.61%. The findings indicate that the area effect is the predominant factor driving the growth of oil palm fruit production in Nigeria. Consequently, it is recommended that various programs such as; small grower schemes, oil palm farmers’ cooperatives, and off-takers scheme be implemented within the sub-sector to stimulate increased activities, production, and yield. Also, the oil palm fruit farmers should be provided with quality seeds and financial resources in addition to broadening research efforts aimed at developing high-yield varieties.

Keywords

Growth Instability Index Oil Palm Fruit Trend Nigeria

References

  • Abbas, A. M., Agada, I. G., & Kolade, O. (2018). Impacts of rice importation on Nigeria’s economy. Journal of Scientific Agriculture, 2, 71-75.
  • Abu, O., & Adakole, O. (2017). Growth and instability in selected cereal crops in Benue State, Nigeria, and its implications for food security. Asian Research Journal of Agriculture, 5(2), 1–8. https://doi.org/10.9734/ARJA/2017/33100
  • Akpan, S. B. (2019). Oil palm fruit supply function in Nigeria. Ife Journal of Agriculture, 31(3), 11-26.
  • Akpan, S. B. (2012). Analysis of food crop output volatility in agricultural policy programme regimes in Nigeria. Developing Country Studies, 2(1), 28-35.
  • Akpan, S. B., Udoh, E. J., & Umoren, A. A. (2012a). Modeling the dynamic relationship between food crop output volatility and its determinants in Nigeria. Journal of Agricultural Science, 4(8), 36–47.
  • Akpan, S. B., Edet, G. E., & Umoren, A. A. (2024). Trend analyses and macroeconomic variable determinants of oil palm fruit and its derivatives production in Nigeria. Scientific Papers Series Management, Economic Engineering in Agriculture and Rural Development, 24(1), 39-55.
  • Akpan, S. B., Ini-mfon, V. P., & John, D. E. (2012b). Empirical relationship between trends in cash crop output volatility and agricultural policy periods in Nigeria. International Journal of Economics and Management Sciences, 1(11), 57-65.
  • Akpan, S. B., Ini-mfon, V. P., & John, D. E. (2012c). Determinants of cash crop output volatility in Nigeria. Journal of Agricultural Science, 4(9), 174–182.
  • Akpan, S. B., Okon, U. E., Udo, U. J., & Akpakaden, I. S. (2020). Analysis of income inequality and poverty incidence among oil palm farmers in Akwa Ibom State, Nigeria. Ife Journal of Agriculture, 32(2), 102–117.
  • Akpan, S. B., Uwemedimo, E. O., & Ima-abasi, S. A. (2019). Poverty coping strategies of oil palm farmers in Akwa Ibom State, Nigeria. Nigerian Journal of Agriculture, Food and Environment, 15(1), 20-30.
  • Aloko, S. M. (2023). An analysis of the impact of the oil boom on agriculture and agricultural research in Northern Nigeria, 1970-1987. Wukari International Studies Journal, 7(1), 443-456.
  • Antia-Obong, E. A., Eno, W. C., & Obot, A. P. (2024). Analysis of coconut production trends under three policy phases in Nigeria. KSU Journal of Agriculture and Natural Resources, 27(3), 665-673. https://doi.org/10.18016/ksutarimdoga.vi.1309549
  • Busari, A. O., Agboola, T. O., Akintunde, O. K., & Jimoh, L. O. (2022). Competitiveness of Nigerian palm oil in the world market: An econometric analysis. Journal of Agriculture and Food Sciences, 20(1), 154-167.
  • Central Bank of Nigeria. (2015). Inclusion of some imported goods and services on the list of items not valid for foreign exchange in the Nigerian foreign exchange markets. Retrieved January 10, 2024, from https://www.cbn.gov.ng/out/2015/ted/ted.fem.fpc.gen.01.011.pd
  • Coppock, J. D. (1962). International economic instability. McGraw-Hill.
  • Cuddy, J. D. A., & Valle, P. A. D. (1978). Measuring the instability of time series data. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 40, 53–78.
  • Ekenta, C. M., & Ajala, M. K. (2017). Abandoned Nigerian economic resources: The case of oil palm. International Journal of Agricultural Extension and Rural Development Studies, 4(2), 1-16.
  • Eme, O. I., & Fakayode, S. B. (2013). Analysis of the contribution of oil palm to Nigeria's economic development. Agricultural Science Research Journal, 3(10), 333-339.
  • Ephraim, U., Olubunmi, E., & Christopher, E. (2022). Analysing the effects of food imports on food production and balance of payments in Nigeria. Olia Oeconomica Stetinensia, 22(1), 302–324.
  • FAO. (2022). Food and Agricultural Organization. Retrieved December 7, 2023, from www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data
  • FAO. (2024). Food and Agricultural Organization. Retrieved from http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data Gonzalez-Diaz, A., & García-Núñez, J. A. (2021). Minor compounds of palm oil: Properties and potential applications. In H. Kamyab (Ed.), Elaeis guineensis (pp. xx-xx). IntechOpen. https://doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.99526
  • Hassan, M. A., Farid, M. A., Zakaria, M. R., Ariffin, H., Andou, Y., & Shirai, Y. (2024). Palm oil expansion in Malaysia and its countermeasures through policy window and bio-refinery approach. Environmental Science & Policy, 153, 103671. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2024.103671
  • Ikuemonisan, E. S., Olaoba, S. A., & Akinbola, A. E. (2023). Growth, instability, and trend analysis of rice production indicators in Nigeria. Qeios. https://doi.org/10.32388/EUANPE
  • Michael, I. O., & Murat, A. (2019). Effect of structural adjustment programme on the performance of small and medium scale enterprises in Nigeria. International Journal of Social Sciences and Humanities Invention, 6(8), 5565–5570. https://doi.org/10.18535/ijsshi/v6i8.03
  • Nwosu, Aloysius, 1992. "Structural Adjustment and Nigerian Agriculture: An Initial Assessment," Staff Reports 278678, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
  • Ojo G. U., R. A. Offiong, S. O. Akhaine, A. Baiyewu-Teru and F. Allen, (2017). Oil palm Plantations in forest landscapes: impacts, aspirations and ways forward in Nigeria. Wageningen, the Netherlands: Tropenbos International. Available at: file:///C:/Users/hp/Downloads/Nigeria_Oil_Palm_Background_Review-final.pd. Accessed on the 9th of January, 2024.
  • Ojo, M. O. (1989). The structural adjustment programme and Nigeria's export crop sub-sector. Economic and Financial Review, 27(4), 33-45.
  • Okolo, C.C., Nwankwoala, H.O., Ushie, F.A. and Nwankwoala, M.O. (2019). Oil palm production in Nigeria: A review. International Journal of Agriculture and Environmental Research, 5(1), 1-16.
  • Olufemi, A. A., 2015. Analyses of the Determinants of Palm Oil Production in Nigeria (1971-2010). Greener Journal of Agricultural Sciences, 5 (4),110-117.
  • Otaha, J., I. (2012). Dutch Disease and Nigeria Oil Economy. African Research Review, 6 (1), 82-90.
  • Partnership Initiatives in the Niger Delta (PIND) (2011). Palm Oil Value Chain Analysis in the Niger Delta. (2011). 1st Floor St. James Building, 167 Ademola Adetokunbo Crescent, Wuse II, Abuja, Nigeria
  • Patrick, I. V., Akpan, S. B., Udoka, S. J., John, D. E., and Etokeren, U. E. (2013). Factors affecting performance of palm oil processors in the South-South Region of Nigeria. International Journal of Agricultural Economics and Extension, 1(4), 017- 023.
  • PricewaterhouseCoopers (PWC) Report, 2019. Palm oil plantation industry landscape, regulatory and financial overview.
  • Rani, R., Singh, P. K., Tewari, H., Agarwal, P. (2021). Growth and instability in maize production and export in India. Journal of Natural Resource and Development, 16 (2), 112-120.
  • Shehu, S., Salleh, M.A., Ahmad, A.A. (2021). Challenges Facing Palm Oil Industry in Nigeria. Asian People Journal, 4(1), 26-33.
  • Udoh, E. J., and S. B. Akpan. (2019). Macroeconomic variables affecting fish production in Nigeria. Asian Journal of Agriculture and Rural Development Volume 9(2), 216 – 230.
  • Udoka, S. J., Ekwere, O. J., Ini-mfon V. P., Akpan S. B., and Ugwu D. S. (2019). Budgetary analysis of major oil palm derivatives in south-south zone, Nigeria. AKSU Journal of Agricultural Economics, Extension and Rural Development, 2 (2), 29 – 40.
  • United States Department of Agriculture, 2022. Foreign Agricultural Service Oilseeds: World Markets and Trade. https://www.usda.gov/. Accessed on the 12th of January, 2024.
  • Vanguard News, 2020. Federal Government policies on palm oil industry fail. A documentary written by Nkiruka Nnoron for Vanguard news. Accessed on the 9th of January, 2024 at: https://www.vanguardngr.com/2020/03/fg-policies-on-palm-oil-industry-fail/.
  • Yakub, M. U., (2008). The impact of oil on Nigeria's economy: the boom and the burst cycles. Bullion, 32(2), 41–50.
  • Wasim, M. P. (2001). Agricultural Growth and instability in major crop production: A Province–wise analysis in Pakistan. Asian Economic Review, 43, 294-314.

Nijerya'da Yağ Palmiyesi Meyvesinin Üretim, Hasat Alanı ve Verimindeki Eğilim, Büyüme ve Istikrarsızlık Indeksinin Analizi.

Year 2025, Volume: 28 Issue: 1, 219 - 231, 12.02.2025

Sunday Akpan , Edet Udoh , Glory Edet

https://doi.org/10.18016/ksutarimdoga.vi.1563097

Abstract

Araştırmada, Nijerya'daki yağ palmiyesi meyvesinin çıktısı, hasat alanı ve verimi ile ilgili eğilim, büyüme oranı ve istikrarsızlık endeksi incelenmiştir. Gıda ve Tarım Örgütü'nden (FAO) alınan ve 1961-2022 dönemini kapsayan ikincil veriler kullanılarak yapılan çalışma, belirtilen zaman dilimleri boyunca yağ palmiyesi meyvesinin çıktısı, hasat alanı ve verimi eğiliminde tutarsız kalıplar ortaya koymuştur. Belirlenen bileşik büyüme oranları çıktı için %1.11, hasat alanı için %1.03 ve verim için %0.08'dir. Cuddy-Della Valle istikrarsızlık endeksi (CDI) ve Coppock İstikrarsızlık Endeksi (COI) sırasıyla çıktı için 13.87 ve 46.57, hasat alanı için 13.87 ve 46.02 ve verim için 2.52 ve 37.88 olarak hesaplanmıştır. Bu istikrarsızlık endeksleri nispeten düşük olup, Nijerya'daki yağ palmiyesi meyvesi alt sektöründe sınırlı faaliyet olduğunu göstermektedir. Çıktının toplam etkisinin ayrıştırma analizi, alan etkisinin %94.20, verim etkisinin %3.19 ve etkileşimli etkinin %2.61 olduğunu gösterdi. Bulgular, alan etkisinin Nijerya'da yağ palmiyesi meyvesi üretiminin büyümesini yönlendiren baskın faktör olduğunu göstermektedir. Sonuç olarak, artan faaliyetleri, üretimi ve verimi teşvik etmek için alt sektörde küçük yetiştirici planı, yağ palmiyesi çiftçileri kooperatifi, alıcı planı gibi çeşitli programların uygulanması önerilmektedir. Ayrıca, yağ palmiyesi meyvesi üreticilerine, yüksek verimli çeşitlerin geliştirilmesine yönelik araştırma çalışmalarının artırılmasının yanı sıra, kaliteli tohum temini ve finansal kaynakların sağlanması da önemlidir.

Keywords

Büyüme İstikrarsızlık endeksi Yağ palmiyesi meyvesi Eğilim Nijerya

References

  • Abbas, A. M., Agada, I. G., & Kolade, O. (2018). Impacts of rice importation on Nigeria’s economy. Journal of Scientific Agriculture, 2, 71-75.
  • Abu, O., & Adakole, O. (2017). Growth and instability in selected cereal crops in Benue State, Nigeria, and its implications for food security. Asian Research Journal of Agriculture, 5(2), 1–8. https://doi.org/10.9734/ARJA/2017/33100
  • Akpan, S. B. (2019). Oil palm fruit supply function in Nigeria. Ife Journal of Agriculture, 31(3), 11-26.
  • Akpan, S. B. (2012). Analysis of food crop output volatility in agricultural policy programme regimes in Nigeria. Developing Country Studies, 2(1), 28-35.
  • Akpan, S. B., Udoh, E. J., & Umoren, A. A. (2012a). Modeling the dynamic relationship between food crop output volatility and its determinants in Nigeria. Journal of Agricultural Science, 4(8), 36–47.
  • Akpan, S. B., Edet, G. E., & Umoren, A. A. (2024). Trend analyses and macroeconomic variable determinants of oil palm fruit and its derivatives production in Nigeria. Scientific Papers Series Management, Economic Engineering in Agriculture and Rural Development, 24(1), 39-55.
  • Akpan, S. B., Ini-mfon, V. P., & John, D. E. (2012b). Empirical relationship between trends in cash crop output volatility and agricultural policy periods in Nigeria. International Journal of Economics and Management Sciences, 1(11), 57-65.
  • Akpan, S. B., Ini-mfon, V. P., & John, D. E. (2012c). Determinants of cash crop output volatility in Nigeria. Journal of Agricultural Science, 4(9), 174–182.
  • Akpan, S. B., Okon, U. E., Udo, U. J., & Akpakaden, I. S. (2020). Analysis of income inequality and poverty incidence among oil palm farmers in Akwa Ibom State, Nigeria. Ife Journal of Agriculture, 32(2), 102–117.
  • Akpan, S. B., Uwemedimo, E. O., & Ima-abasi, S. A. (2019). Poverty coping strategies of oil palm farmers in Akwa Ibom State, Nigeria. Nigerian Journal of Agriculture, Food and Environment, 15(1), 20-30.
  • Aloko, S. M. (2023). An analysis of the impact of the oil boom on agriculture and agricultural research in Northern Nigeria, 1970-1987. Wukari International Studies Journal, 7(1), 443-456.
  • Antia-Obong, E. A., Eno, W. C., & Obot, A. P. (2024). Analysis of coconut production trends under three policy phases in Nigeria. KSU Journal of Agriculture and Natural Resources, 27(3), 665-673. https://doi.org/10.18016/ksutarimdoga.vi.1309549
  • Busari, A. O., Agboola, T. O., Akintunde, O. K., & Jimoh, L. O. (2022). Competitiveness of Nigerian palm oil in the world market: An econometric analysis. Journal of Agriculture and Food Sciences, 20(1), 154-167.
  • Central Bank of Nigeria. (2015). Inclusion of some imported goods and services on the list of items not valid for foreign exchange in the Nigerian foreign exchange markets. Retrieved January 10, 2024, from https://www.cbn.gov.ng/out/2015/ted/ted.fem.fpc.gen.01.011.pd
  • Coppock, J. D. (1962). International economic instability. McGraw-Hill.
  • Cuddy, J. D. A., & Valle, P. A. D. (1978). Measuring the instability of time series data. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 40, 53–78.
  • Ekenta, C. M., & Ajala, M. K. (2017). Abandoned Nigerian economic resources: The case of oil palm. International Journal of Agricultural Extension and Rural Development Studies, 4(2), 1-16.
  • Eme, O. I., & Fakayode, S. B. (2013). Analysis of the contribution of oil palm to Nigeria's economic development. Agricultural Science Research Journal, 3(10), 333-339.
  • Ephraim, U., Olubunmi, E., & Christopher, E. (2022). Analysing the effects of food imports on food production and balance of payments in Nigeria. Olia Oeconomica Stetinensia, 22(1), 302–324.
  • FAO. (2022). Food and Agricultural Organization. Retrieved December 7, 2023, from www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data
  • FAO. (2024). Food and Agricultural Organization. Retrieved from http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data Gonzalez-Diaz, A., & García-Núñez, J. A. (2021). Minor compounds of palm oil: Properties and potential applications. In H. Kamyab (Ed.), Elaeis guineensis (pp. xx-xx). IntechOpen. https://doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.99526
  • Hassan, M. A., Farid, M. A., Zakaria, M. R., Ariffin, H., Andou, Y., & Shirai, Y. (2024). Palm oil expansion in Malaysia and its countermeasures through policy window and bio-refinery approach. Environmental Science & Policy, 153, 103671. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2024.103671
  • Ikuemonisan, E. S., Olaoba, S. A., & Akinbola, A. E. (2023). Growth, instability, and trend analysis of rice production indicators in Nigeria. Qeios. https://doi.org/10.32388/EUANPE
  • Michael, I. O., & Murat, A. (2019). Effect of structural adjustment programme on the performance of small and medium scale enterprises in Nigeria. International Journal of Social Sciences and Humanities Invention, 6(8), 5565–5570. https://doi.org/10.18535/ijsshi/v6i8.03
  • Nwosu, Aloysius, 1992. "Structural Adjustment and Nigerian Agriculture: An Initial Assessment," Staff Reports 278678, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
  • Ojo G. U., R. A. Offiong, S. O. Akhaine, A. Baiyewu-Teru and F. Allen, (2017). Oil palm Plantations in forest landscapes: impacts, aspirations and ways forward in Nigeria. Wageningen, the Netherlands: Tropenbos International. Available at: file:///C:/Users/hp/Downloads/Nigeria_Oil_Palm_Background_Review-final.pd. Accessed on the 9th of January, 2024.
  • Ojo, M. O. (1989). The structural adjustment programme and Nigeria's export crop sub-sector. Economic and Financial Review, 27(4), 33-45.
  • Okolo, C.C., Nwankwoala, H.O., Ushie, F.A. and Nwankwoala, M.O. (2019). Oil palm production in Nigeria: A review. International Journal of Agriculture and Environmental Research, 5(1), 1-16.
  • Olufemi, A. A., 2015. Analyses of the Determinants of Palm Oil Production in Nigeria (1971-2010). Greener Journal of Agricultural Sciences, 5 (4),110-117.
  • Otaha, J., I. (2012). Dutch Disease and Nigeria Oil Economy. African Research Review, 6 (1), 82-90.
  • Partnership Initiatives in the Niger Delta (PIND) (2011). Palm Oil Value Chain Analysis in the Niger Delta. (2011). 1st Floor St. James Building, 167 Ademola Adetokunbo Crescent, Wuse II, Abuja, Nigeria
  • Patrick, I. V., Akpan, S. B., Udoka, S. J., John, D. E., and Etokeren, U. E. (2013). Factors affecting performance of palm oil processors in the South-South Region of Nigeria. International Journal of Agricultural Economics and Extension, 1(4), 017- 023.
  • PricewaterhouseCoopers (PWC) Report, 2019. Palm oil plantation industry landscape, regulatory and financial overview.
  • Rani, R., Singh, P. K., Tewari, H., Agarwal, P. (2021). Growth and instability in maize production and export in India. Journal of Natural Resource and Development, 16 (2), 112-120.
  • Shehu, S., Salleh, M.A., Ahmad, A.A. (2021). Challenges Facing Palm Oil Industry in Nigeria. Asian People Journal, 4(1), 26-33.
  • Udoh, E. J., and S. B. Akpan. (2019). Macroeconomic variables affecting fish production in Nigeria. Asian Journal of Agriculture and Rural Development Volume 9(2), 216 – 230.
  • Udoka, S. J., Ekwere, O. J., Ini-mfon V. P., Akpan S. B., and Ugwu D. S. (2019). Budgetary analysis of major oil palm derivatives in south-south zone, Nigeria. AKSU Journal of Agricultural Economics, Extension and Rural Development, 2 (2), 29 – 40.
  • United States Department of Agriculture, 2022. Foreign Agricultural Service Oilseeds: World Markets and Trade. https://www.usda.gov/. Accessed on the 12th of January, 2024.
  • Vanguard News, 2020. Federal Government policies on palm oil industry fail. A documentary written by Nkiruka Nnoron for Vanguard news. Accessed on the 9th of January, 2024 at: https://www.vanguardngr.com/2020/03/fg-policies-on-palm-oil-industry-fail/.
  • Yakub, M. U., (2008). The impact of oil on Nigeria's economy: the boom and the burst cycles. Bullion, 32(2), 41–50.
  • Wasim, M. P. (2001). Agricultural Growth and instability in major crop production: A Province–wise analysis in Pakistan. Asian Economic Review, 43, 294-314.
There are 41 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language English
Subjects Agricultural Policy
Journal Section RESEARCH ARTICLE
Authors

Sunday Akpan 0000-0002-0458-028X

Edet Udoh 0000-0002-4550-4320

Glory Edet 0009-0009-3638-066X

Early Pub Date January 30, 2025
Publication Date February 12, 2025
Submission Date October 8, 2024
Acceptance Date December 27, 2024
Published in Issue Year 2025 Volume: 28 Issue: 1

Cite

APA Akpan, S., Udoh, E., & Edet, G. (2025). Analysis of Trend, Growth, and Instability Index in Output, Harvested Area, and Yield of Oil Palm Fruit in Nigeria. Kahramanmaraş Sütçü İmam Üniversitesi Tarım Ve Doğa Dergisi, 28(1), 219-231. https://doi.org/10.18016/ksutarimdoga.vi.1563097
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