The Effect Of Grain Prices On Food Inflation: A Forward-Looking Evaluation Among The Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Musa Türkoğlu; Ayşe Durgun

doi:10.18016/ksutarimdoga.vi.1289252

TR EN

The Effect Of Grain Prices On Food Inflation: A Forward-Looking Evaluation Among The Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Abstract

The present study investigates how grain prices have been affecting food inflation in the wake of the recent pandemic and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict. This study examines the effects on inflation of the limitations on exports of wheat, barley and corn products by Russia and Ukraine on the food inflation in Asia and North Africa by using cointegration test. Drawing upon monthly data from the 2000:01–2020:08 period, the study reveals that the food price index and grain prices in both Asia and North Africa are cointegrated in the long term, and that in both country groups wheat price increases in particular are triggering an increase in food prices.

Keywords

References

Akçelik F. & Tuğer, B. (2015). Uluslararası hububat fiyatlarinin yurt içi fiyatlara yansimasi. TCMB Ekonomi Notları, Sayı: 2015-05.
Ciner, C. (2011). Commodity prices and inflation: Testing in the frequency domain. Research in International Business and Finance, 25(3), 229 - 237
FAO. (2022a). https://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/ foodpricesindex/en/, (Date of access: 29.04.2022).
FAO. (2022b). Information Note, The importance of Ukraine and the Russian Federation for global agricultural markets and the risks associated with the current conflict, Executive Summary, https://www.fao.org/3/cb9236en/cb9236en.pdf, (Date of access: 02.04.2022).
Furceria, D., Loungani, P., Simon J. & Wachterd, S. M. (2016). Global food prices and domestic inflation: some cross-country evidence. Oxford Economic Papers, 68(3), 665–687, doi: 10.1093/oep/gpw016
Gonzalo, J. (1994). Five Alternative Methods of Estimating Long-run Equlibirium Relationships. Journal of Econometrics. 60, 203–234
Granger, C.W & Newbold, J. P. (1974). Spurious regressions in econometrics. Journal of Econometrics, 2. IGC. (2022a). Declaration, 6 April 2022, https://www. igc.int/en/downloads/2022/Council-Declaration_06-04-2022.pdf
IGC. (2022b). Grain Market Report, https://www.igc. int/en/gmr_summary.aspx. (Date of access 28.05.2022).

Jalil, M. & Zea. E. T. (2011). Pass-through of International Food Prices to Domestic Inflation During and After the Great Recession: Evidence from a Set of Latin American Economies. Desarrollo y sociedad primer semestre de, 135-179.
Juselius, K. (1999). Models and relations in economics and econometrics, Journal of Economic Methodology, (6), 259-290.
Kaltalioglu M. & Soytas U. (2011). Volatility spillover from Oil to Food and Agricultural Raw Material Markets. Modern Economy, 2011, 2, 71-76 doi:10.4236/me.2011.22011
Lee H. & Park, Cyn-Y. (2013). International transmission of food prices and volatilities: A panel analysis. ADB Economics Working Paper Series, no:373, Asian Development Bank
Lütkepol, H., saikkonen, P. & Trenkler, C. (2000). Maximum eigenvalue versus trace tests fort he cointegrating rank of a VAR process. SFB 373 discussion paper, no:83.
Maros, I. & Martin, W. (2008). Implications of higher global food prices for poverty in low-income countries. Policy Research Working Paper, Report No. WPS 4594. The World Bank, Washington, DC.
Mittal, A.( 2009). The 2008 food price crisis: Rethinking food security policies, G-24 discussion paper series. United Nations Conference on trade and development, No. 56, United Nations
Nazlıoğlu, Ş. & Soytaş, U. (2012). Oil price, agricultural commodity prices, and the dollar: A panel cointegration and causality analysis. Energy Economics 34, 1098–1104.
OECD. (2022a). OECD economic outlook, volume 2022 Issue 1: Preliminary version, No. 111, OECD Publishing, Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/ 62d0ca31-en.
OECD. (2022b). OECD economic outlook, interim report march 2022: Economic and Social Impacts and policy implications of the war in Ukraine, OECD Publishing, Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/4181d61b-en.
Ott, H. (2014). Volatility in cereal prices: Intra- versus inter-annual volatility. Journal of Agricultural Economics,65( 3), 557–578 doi: 10.1111/1477-9552.12073
Rajput, H., Changotra R., Rajput P., Gautam, S., Anjani, R. K. Gollakota, • Amarpreet Singh A., (2021). A shock like no other: Coronavirus rattles commodity markets. Environment, Development and Sustainability 23, 6564– 6575 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-020-00934-4
Sasmal, J. (2015). Food price inflation in India: The growing economy with sluggish agriculture. Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Science 20 ,30–40.
Sevüktekin M. & M. Nargeleçekenler. ( 2010). Ekonometrik Zaman Serileri Analizi. Ankara. Nobel Yayın Dağıtım. Çaşkurlu,. S. (2011). Küresel gıda krizi: üçüncü gıda rejimi, küresel sermaye ve gelişmekte olan ülkeler. Ekonomik Yaklaşım, 23, Özel Sayı,161-194.
Tarı, R. (2011). Ekonometri. Umuttepe Yayınları, Kocaeli.
Tule, M. K., Salisu, A. A. & Chiemeke, C.C. (2019). Can agricultural commodity prices predict Nigeria's inflation? Journal of Commodity Markets,16, 1-21.
UNCTAD. (2008). The least developed countries report 2008. United Nations publication. New York and Geneva.
Varlık N. & Yeşil Balıkçıoğlu, E. (2021). Kırılgan beşlide gıda fiyatlarının enflasyona geçiş etkisi, Akademik Hassasiyetler, 8(16), 23-39.

Details

Primary Language

English

Subjects

Agricultural Economics (Other)

Journal Section

Research Article

Authors

Musa Türkoğlu
0000-0001-7662-9647
Türkiye

Ayşe Durgun ^*
0000-0002-8062-7473
Türkiye

Early Pub Date

March 11, 2024

Publication Date

June 30, 2024

Submission Date

April 28, 2023

Acceptance Date

November 2, 2023

Published in Issue

Year 2024 Volume: 27 Number: 3

DOI

https://doi.org/10.18016/ksutarimdoga.vi.1289252

IZ

https://izlik.org/JA92KS56TU

Cite

RIS / Bibtex

APA

Türkoğlu, M., & Durgun, A. (2024). The Effect Of Grain Prices On Food Inflation: A Forward-Looking Evaluation Among The Russia-Ukraine Conflict. Kahramanmaraş Sütçü İmam Üniversitesi Tarım Ve Doğa Dergisi, 27(3), 656-664. https://doi.org/10.18016/ksutarimdoga.vi.1289252

AMA

1.Türkoğlu M, Durgun A. The Effect Of Grain Prices On Food Inflation: A Forward-Looking Evaluation Among The Russia-Ukraine Conflict. KSU J. Agric Nat. 2024;27(3):656-664. doi:10.18016/ksutarimdoga.vi.1289252

Chicago

Türkoğlu, Musa, and Ayşe Durgun. 2024. “The Effect Of Grain Prices On Food Inflation: A Forward-Looking Evaluation Among The Russia-Ukraine Conflict”. Kahramanmaraş Sütçü İmam Üniversitesi Tarım Ve Doğa Dergisi 27 (3): 656-64. https://doi.org/10.18016/ksutarimdoga.vi.1289252.

EndNote

Türkoğlu M, Durgun A (June 1, 2024) The Effect Of Grain Prices On Food Inflation: A Forward-Looking Evaluation Among The Russia-Ukraine Conflict. Kahramanmaraş Sütçü İmam Üniversitesi Tarım ve Doğa Dergisi 27 3 656–664.

IEEE

[1]M. Türkoğlu and A. Durgun, “The Effect Of Grain Prices On Food Inflation: A Forward-Looking Evaluation Among The Russia-Ukraine Conflict”, KSU J. Agric Nat., vol. 27, no. 3, pp. 656–664, June 2024, doi: 10.18016/ksutarimdoga.vi.1289252.

ISNAD

Türkoğlu, Musa - Durgun, Ayşe. “The Effect Of Grain Prices On Food Inflation: A Forward-Looking Evaluation Among The Russia-Ukraine Conflict”. Kahramanmaraş Sütçü İmam Üniversitesi Tarım ve Doğa Dergisi 27/3 (June 1, 2024): 656-664. https://doi.org/10.18016/ksutarimdoga.vi.1289252.

JAMA

1.Türkoğlu M, Durgun A. The Effect Of Grain Prices On Food Inflation: A Forward-Looking Evaluation Among The Russia-Ukraine Conflict. KSU J. Agric Nat. 2024;27:656–664.

MLA

Türkoğlu, Musa, and Ayşe Durgun. “The Effect Of Grain Prices On Food Inflation: A Forward-Looking Evaluation Among The Russia-Ukraine Conflict”. Kahramanmaraş Sütçü İmam Üniversitesi Tarım Ve Doğa Dergisi, vol. 27, no. 3, June 2024, pp. 656-64, doi:10.18016/ksutarimdoga.vi.1289252.

Vancouver

1.Musa Türkoğlu, Ayşe Durgun. The Effect Of Grain Prices On Food Inflation: A Forward-Looking Evaluation Among The Russia-Ukraine Conflict. KSU J. Agric Nat. 2024 Jun. 1;27(3):656-64. doi:10.18016/ksutarimdoga.vi.1289252

Cited By

Effect of Grain Corridor Agreement on Grain Prices

International Economic Journal

https://doi.org/10.1080/10168737.2024.2372764

Tahıl Fiyatlarının Gıda Enflasyonu Üzerindeki Etkisi: Rusya-Ukrayna Çatışmasında İleriye Yönelik Bir Değerlendirme

Abstract

Keywords

The Effect Of Grain Prices On Food Inflation: A Forward-Looking Evaluation Among The Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Abstract

Keywords

References

Details

Primary Language

Subjects

Journal Section

Authors

Early Pub Date

Publication Date

Submission Date

Acceptance Date

Published in Issue

DOI

IZ

Cite

Cited By

Effect of Grain Corridor Agreement on Grain Prices