Analysis of Trend, Growth, and Instability Index in Output, Harvested Area, and Yield of Oil Palm Fruit in Nigeria

Sunday Akpan; Edet Udoh; Glory Edet

doi:10.18016/ksutarimdoga.vi.1563097

EN TR

Analysis of Trend, Growth, and Instability Index in Output, Harvested Area, and Yield of Oil Palm Fruit in Nigeria

Abstract

The research examined the trend, growth rate, and instability index related to the output, harvested area, and yield of oil palm fruit in Nigeria. Utilizing secondary data sourced from the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) covering the period from 1961 to 2022, the study revealed inconsistent patterns in the trend of output, harvested area, and yield of oil palm fruit across the specified timeframes. The compound growth rates identified were 1.11% for output, 1.03% for harvested area, and 0.08% for yield. The Cuddy-Della Valle instability index (CDI) and the Coppock Instability Index (COI) were calculated at 13.87 and 46.57 for output, 13.87 and 46.02 for harvested area, and 2.52 and 37.88 for yield, respectively. These instability indices were relatively low, indicating limited activity within the oil palm fruit sub-sector in Nigeria. A decomposition analysis of the total effect of the output showed that the area effect accounted for 94.20%, the yield effect for 3.19%, and the interactive effect for 2.61%. The findings indicate that the area effect is the predominant factor driving the growth of oil palm fruit production in Nigeria. Consequently, it is recommended that various programs such as; small grower schemes, oil palm farmers’ cooperatives, and off-takers scheme be implemented within the sub-sector to stimulate increased activities, production, and yield. Also, the oil palm fruit farmers should be provided with quality seeds and financial resources in addition to broadening research efforts aimed at developing high-yield varieties.

Keywords

Nijerya'da Yağ Palmiyesi Meyvesinin Üretim, Hasat Alanı ve Verimindeki Eğilim, Büyüme ve Istikrarsızlık Indeksinin Analizi.

Öz

Araştırmada, Nijerya'daki yağ palmiyesi meyvesinin çıktısı, hasat alanı ve verimi ile ilgili eğilim, büyüme oranı ve istikrarsızlık endeksi incelenmiştir. Gıda ve Tarım Örgütü'nden (FAO) alınan ve 1961-2022 dönemini kapsayan ikincil veriler kullanılarak yapılan çalışma, belirtilen zaman dilimleri boyunca yağ palmiyesi meyvesinin çıktısı, hasat alanı ve verimi eğiliminde tutarsız kalıplar ortaya koymuştur. Belirlenen bileşik büyüme oranları çıktı için %1.11, hasat alanı için %1.03 ve verim için %0.08'dir. Cuddy-Della Valle istikrarsızlık endeksi (CDI) ve Coppock İstikrarsızlık Endeksi (COI) sırasıyla çıktı için 13.87 ve 46.57, hasat alanı için 13.87 ve 46.02 ve verim için 2.52 ve 37.88 olarak hesaplanmıştır. Bu istikrarsızlık endeksleri nispeten düşük olup, Nijerya'daki yağ palmiyesi meyvesi alt sektöründe sınırlı faaliyet olduğunu göstermektedir. Çıktının toplam etkisinin ayrıştırma analizi, alan etkisinin %94.20, verim etkisinin %3.19 ve etkileşimli etkinin %2.61 olduğunu gösterdi. Bulgular, alan etkisinin Nijerya'da yağ palmiyesi meyvesi üretiminin büyümesini yönlendiren baskın faktör olduğunu göstermektedir. Sonuç olarak, artan faaliyetleri, üretimi ve verimi teşvik etmek için alt sektörde küçük yetiştirici planı, yağ palmiyesi çiftçileri kooperatifi, alıcı planı gibi çeşitli programların uygulanması önerilmektedir. Ayrıca, yağ palmiyesi meyvesi üreticilerine, yüksek verimli çeşitlerin geliştirilmesine yönelik araştırma çalışmalarının artırılmasının yanı sıra, kaliteli tohum temini ve finansal kaynakların sağlanması da önemlidir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

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Details

Primary Language

English

Subjects

Agricultural Policy

Journal Section

Research Article

Authors

Sunday Akpan ^*
0000-0002-0458-028X
Nigeria

Edet Udoh
0000-0002-4550-4320
Nigeria

Glory Edet
0009-0009-3638-066X
Nigeria

Early Pub Date

January 30, 2025

Publication Date

February 12, 2025

Submission Date

October 8, 2024

Acceptance Date

December 27, 2024

Published in Issue

Year 2025 Volume: 28 Number: 1

DOI

https://doi.org/10.18016/ksutarimdoga.vi.1563097

IZ

https://izlik.org/JA37TF29HR

Cite

RIS / Bibtex

APA

Akpan, S., Udoh, E., & Edet, G. (2025). Analysis of Trend, Growth, and Instability Index in Output, Harvested Area, and Yield of Oil Palm Fruit in Nigeria. Kahramanmaraş Sütçü İmam Üniversitesi Tarım Ve Doğa Dergisi, 28(1), 219-231. https://doi.org/10.18016/ksutarimdoga.vi.1563097