The Impact of Climate Change on Productivity of Turkiye’s Agricultural Sector: Empirical Evidence on the Role of Economic Growth

Hüseyin Çelik; Ebrime Kitabou Ceesay

doi:10.18016/ksutarimdoga.vi.1676557

TR EN

İklim Değişikliğinin Türk Tarım Sektörü Verimliliği Üzerindeki Etkisi: Ekonomik Büyümenin Rolüne Dair Ampirik Kanıtlar

Öz

Tarım sektörü gıda tedarik zincirinin ilk aşaması olması sadece ülke ekonomileri açısından değil, insan sağlığı ve sürdürülebilirliği, gıda güvenliği açısından da önem arz etmektedir. Tarımsal üretim birçok girdi ile gerçekleştirilmekte olduğundan tarımsal verimliliği etkileyen birçok faktör de ortaya çıkmaktadır. Özellikle iklim değişikliğinde görülen gelişmeler birçok alanda etkili olduğu gibi tarım sektörünü dolayısıyla da gıda üretimi üzerinde de etkili olmaktadır. Buradan hareketle bu çalışmanın amacı iklim değişikliğinin ve ekonomik büyümenin Türk tarım sektörü üzerindeki etkisini 1990-2021 dönemi için ARDL yöntemini kullanarak araştırmak olarak ifade edilebilir. Elde edilen sonuçlara göre modelde uzun dönem eşbütünleşme ilişkisi elde edilmiştir. Uzun dönem katsayı tahminlerine göre yağış miktarı ve ekonomik büyüme tarım sektörünü pozitif yönde etkilerken, sıcaklık ise negatif yönde etkilemektedir. Türk tarım sektörünün sürdürülebilirliği ve verimlilik artışları için küresel ısınmaya neden olan sera gazları emisyonunun azaltılması yönünde tedbirler alınmalıdır. Ayrıca yağış miktarının yetersiz olduğu bölgelerde GAP (Güneydoğu Anadolu Projesi) gibi sulama ve tarımsal politikalar aktif hale getirilmelidir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

The Impact of Climate Change on Productivity of Turkiye’s Agricultural Sector: Empirical Evidence on the Role of Economic Growth

Abstract

As the initial stage of the food supply chain, the agricultural sector holds significance not only for national economies but also for human health, sustainability, and food security. Agricultural production relies on various inputs, and numerous factors influence agricultural productivity. Notably, changes brought about by climate change affect many sectors, including agriculture, and consequently impact food production. In this context, this study aims to examine the effects of climate change and economic growth on Turkiye's agricultural sector for the period 1990–2021 using the ARDL (Autoregressive Distributed Lag) approach. The findings reveal the existence of a long-run cointegration relationship in the model. According to the long-run coefficient estimates, precipitation and economic growth have a positive effect on the agricultural sector, while temperature has a negative effect. To ensure the sustainability and increased productivity of Turkiye’s agricultural sector, measures should be taken to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, which contribute to global warming. Furthermore, in regions with insufficient rainfall, irrigation and agricultural policies such as the Southeastern Anatolia Project (GAP) should be actively implemented.

Keywords

References

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Details

Primary Language

English

Subjects

Sustainable Agricultural Development

Journal Section

Research Article

Authors

Hüseyin Çelik ^*
0000-0002-2455-9381
Türkiye

Ebrime Kitabou Ceesay
0000-0002-1473-8634
Gambia

Early Pub Date

February 10, 2026

Publication Date

February 10, 2026

Submission Date

April 15, 2025

Acceptance Date

October 14, 2025

Published in Issue

Year 2026 Volume: 29 Number: 3

DOI

https://doi.org/10.18016/ksutarimdoga.vi.1676557

IZ

https://izlik.org/JA59ZZ93HY

Cite

RIS / Bibtex

APA

Çelik, H., & Ceesay, E. K. (2026). The Impact of Climate Change on Productivity of Turkiye’s Agricultural Sector: Empirical Evidence on the Role of Economic Growth. Kahramanmaraş Sütçü İmam Üniversitesi Tarım Ve Doğa Dergisi, 29(3), 796-810. https://doi.org/10.18016/ksutarimdoga.vi.1676557