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İklim Değişikliği ve Çevresel Bozulmanın Tarımsal Kredi Kullanımına Etkisi: Fourier Yaklaşımlar ile Türkiye’den Kanıtlar

Year 2025, Volume: 28 Issue: 6, 1516 - 1530

Onur Şeyranlıoğlu , Ayşegül Han , Gökçen Aydınbaş

https://doi.org/10.18016/ksutarimdoga.vi.1652184

Abstract

Bu çalışmanın amacı, Türkiye’de 1988-2023 dönemine ait yıllık veriler kullanılarak iklim değişikliği ve çevresel bozulmanın tarımsal kredi kullanımına etkisini incelemektir. Araştırmada, değişkenlerin durağanlık özellikleri Fourier KPSS durağanlık testi ile belirlenmiş, uzun dönem ilişkiler Fourier Shin eşbütünleşme yöntemi ile analiz edilmiş ve uzun dönem katsayı tahminleri ise Fourier FMOLS yöntemiyle yapılmıştır. Son olarak, değişkenler arasındaki nedensellik ilişkileri keşfetmek için Fourier Toda-Yamamoto nedensellik testi kullanılmıştır. Bulgular, iklim değişikliği ve çevresel bozulmadaki artışların tarımsal kredi kullanımını azalttığını göstermektedir. Öte yandan, tarımsal katma değer, ekilebilir tarımsal alan ve nüfus artışının tarımsal kredi kullanımını artırdığı bulunmuştur. Nedensellik analizi sonuçlarına göre, tarımsal kredi kullanımından iklim değişikliğine doğru tek yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisi bulunurken, tarımsal kredi kullanımı ile tarımsal katma değer ve nüfus artışı arasında çift yönlü nedensellik ilişkileri tespit edilmiştir. Elde edilen sonuçlar, tarım sektörüne yönelik finansal politikaların çevresel ve iklimsel riskler göz önünde bulundurularak yeniden yapılandırılmasının önemini vurgulamakta ve bu etkileşimi Fourier tabanlı ekonometrik analizlerle ele alarak çok sınırlı olan literatüre önemli bir katkı sağlanmaktadır.

Keywords

İklim değişikliği Çevresel bozulma Tarımsal kredi Fourier yaklaşım

References

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  • Acharya, S. P., & Bhatta, G. R. (2013). Impact of climate change on agricultural growth in Nepal. NRB Working Paper No. 15. https://www.nrb.org.np/ecorev/pdffiles/nrbwp201315.pdf (Access Date: 18.02.2025).
  • Akalın M., (2014). The climate change impacts on agriculture: Adaptation and mitigation strategies for these impacts. Hitit University Journal of Social Sciences Institute, 7(2), 351-377.
  • Andersen, D. C. (2016). Credit constraints, technology upgrading, and the environment. Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, 3(2), 283-319.
  • Anwar, A., Ahmad, N., & Madni, G. R. (2020). Industrialization, freight transport and environmental quality: Evidence from belt and road initiative economies. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 27(7), 7053-7070.
  • Arai, Y., & Kurozumi, E. (2007). Testing for the null hypothesis of cointegration with a structural break. Econometric Reviews, 26(6), 705-739. https://doi.org/10.1080/07474930701653776
  • Başoğlu, A., & Telatar, O. M. (2013). The impact of climate change: An econometric analysis on agriculture. Karadeniz Technical University Journal of Social Sciences, 3(6), 7-25.
  • Baysa, E., & Cihangir, M. (2021). Determining the minimum cost to customers of subsidized (discounted interest) and interest-free loans for agricultural production. The Journal of Financial Researches and Studies, 13(25), 323-343.
  • Becker, R., Enders, W., & Lee, J. (2006). A stationary test in the presence of an unknown number of smooth breaks. Journal of Time Series Analysis, 27(3), 381-409. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9892.2006.00478.x
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  • He, W., Chen, W., Chandio, A. A., Zhang, B., & Jiang, Y. (2022). Does agricultural credit mitigate the effect of climate change on cereal production? Evidence from Sichuan province, China. Atmosphere, 13(2), 336. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos13020336
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  • Iqbal, K., & Siddique, A. (2014). The impact of climate change on agricultural productivity: Evidence from panel data of Bangladesh. No 14-29, Economics Discussion / Working Papers from The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics. https://research-repository.uwa.edu.au/en/publications/the-impact-of-climate-change-on-agricultural-productivity-evidenc-2 (Access Date:18.02.2025).
  • Khalid, A. A., Mahmood, F., & Rukh, G. (2016). Impact of climate changes on economic and agricultural value added share in GDP. Asian Management Research Journal, 1(1), 35-48.
  • Kızılkaya, O., & Konat, G. (2019). Are fluctuations in electricity consumption permanent or transitory? An empirical analysis for Turkey. EKOIST Journal of Econometrics and Statistics, 30, 53-62. https://doi.org/10.26650/ekoist.2019.30.0017
  • Kwiatkowski, D., Phillips, P. C., Schmidt, P., & Shin, Y. (1992). Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root: How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root? Journal of Econometrics, 54(1-3), 159-178. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4076(92)90104-Y
  • Liu, T. (2024). Save the Farms: Nonlinear Impact of Climate Change on Banks' Agricultural Lending. University of California, Santa Cruz. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4944954 (Access Date: 15.02.2025).
  • Lobell, D. B., & Field, C. B. (2007). Global scale climate crop yield relationships and the impacts of recent warming. Environmental Research Letters, 2(1), 014002. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/2/1/014002
  • Mahato, A. (2014). Climate change and its impact on agriculture. International Journal of Scientific and Research Publications, 4(4), 1-6.
  • Mertz, O., Halsnæs, K., Olesen, J. E., & Rasmussen, K. (2009). Adaptation to climate change in developing countries. Environmental Management, 43, 743-752. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00267-008-9259-3
  • Nastis, S. A., Michailidis, A., & Chatzitheodoridis, F. (2012). Climate change and agricultural productivity. African Journal of Agricultural Research, 7(35), 4885-4893.
  • Olagunju, F. I., Adeojo, R. J., Ayojimi, W., Awe, T. E., & Oriade, O. A. (2023). Causal nexus between agricultural credit rationing and repayment performance: A two-stage Tobit regression. AIMS Agriculture and Food, 8(1), 151-163. https://doi.org/10.3934/agrfood.2023008
  • Önder, F. (2023). The impact of agricultural loans on growth in Turkey: A panel data analysis. Turkish Journal of Agricultural and Natural Sciences, 10(4), 1039-1050. https://doi.org/10.30910/turkjans.1353569
  • Özbek, S., & Özbek, B. (2024). Does climate change strengthen the link between environmental degradation and agricultural output? Empirical evidence on the Turkish economy. Turkish Journal of Agricultural Economics, 30(1), 49-60. https://doi.org/10.24181/tarekoder.1472242
  • Özkurt, İ. C. (2024). Impact of climate change on agricultural production in Türkiye. KSU J. Agric Nat, 27(Suppl. 1), 263-275. https://doi.org/10.18016/ksutarimdoga.vi.1394627
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  • Shin, Y. (1994). A residual-based test of the null of cointegration against the alternative of no cointegration. Econometric Theory, 10(1), 91-115. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0266466600008240
  • Singh, M., & Islam, E. (2024). Do lenders pay attention to climate risk? Evidence from Farm Loans. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4935069 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4935069 (Access Date: 15.02.2025).
  • Terin, M., Güler, İ. O., & Aksoy, A. (2014). Causal relationship between agricultural production and agricultural credit use in Turkey. Iğdır University Journal of the Institute of Science and Technology, 4(1), 67-72.
  • Tsong, C. C., Lee, C. F., Tsai, L. J., & Hu, T. C. (2016). The Fourier approximation and testing for the null of cointegration. Empirical Economics, 51, 1085-1113. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-015-1028-6
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The Impact of Climate Change and Environmental Degradation on Agricultural Credit Usage: Evidence from Türkiye with Fourier Approximations

Year 2025, Volume: 28 Issue: 6, 1516 - 1530

Onur Şeyranlıoğlu , Ayşegül Han , Gökçen Aydınbaş

https://doi.org/10.18016/ksutarimdoga.vi.1652184

Abstract

This study aims to examine the impact of climate change and environmental degradation on agricultural credit utilization using annual data for the period 1988-2023 in Türkiye. In this paper, stationarity is tested using the Fourier KPSS stationarity test, long-run relationships are analyzed using the Fourier Shin cointegration method, and long-run coefficients are estimated using the Fourier FMOLS method. Finally, the Fourier Toda-Yamamoto causality test is used to explore causal relationships between variables. The findings show that increases in climate change and environmental degradation reduce agricultural credit utilization. On the other hand, agricultural value added, arable agricultural area, and population growth are found to increase agricultural credit utilization. According to the causality analysis results, a unidirectional causality relationship was found from agricultural credit utilization to climate change, while bidirectional causality relationships were found between agricultural credit utilization and agricultural value added and population growth. The results obtained emphasize the importance of restructuring financial policies for the agricultural sector in consideration of environmental and climatic risks and provide an important contribution to the very limited literature by addressing this interaction with Fourier-based econometric analyses.

Keywords

Climate change Environmental degradation Agricultural credit Fourier approximation

References

  • Abay, K. A., Koru, B., Chamberlin, J., & Berhane, G. (2018). Does weather risk explain low uptake of agricultural credit? Evidence from Ethiopia. Ethiopia: International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and Ethiopian Development Research Institute (EDRI), ESSP Working Paper 128. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/146802 (Access Date: 15.02.2025).
  • Acharya, S. P., & Bhatta, G. R. (2013). Impact of climate change on agricultural growth in Nepal. NRB Working Paper No. 15. https://www.nrb.org.np/ecorev/pdffiles/nrbwp201315.pdf (Access Date: 18.02.2025).
  • Akalın M., (2014). The climate change impacts on agriculture: Adaptation and mitigation strategies for these impacts. Hitit University Journal of Social Sciences Institute, 7(2), 351-377.
  • Andersen, D. C. (2016). Credit constraints, technology upgrading, and the environment. Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, 3(2), 283-319.
  • Anwar, A., Ahmad, N., & Madni, G. R. (2020). Industrialization, freight transport and environmental quality: Evidence from belt and road initiative economies. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 27(7), 7053-7070.
  • Arai, Y., & Kurozumi, E. (2007). Testing for the null hypothesis of cointegration with a structural break. Econometric Reviews, 26(6), 705-739. https://doi.org/10.1080/07474930701653776
  • Başoğlu, A., & Telatar, O. M. (2013). The impact of climate change: An econometric analysis on agriculture. Karadeniz Technical University Journal of Social Sciences, 3(6), 7-25.
  • Baysa, E., & Cihangir, M. (2021). Determining the minimum cost to customers of subsidized (discounted interest) and interest-free loans for agricultural production. The Journal of Financial Researches and Studies, 13(25), 323-343.
  • Becker, R., Enders, W., & Lee, J. (2006). A stationary test in the presence of an unknown number of smooth breaks. Journal of Time Series Analysis, 27(3), 381-409. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9892.2006.00478.x
  • Belloumi, M. (2014). Investigating the impact of climate change on agricultural production in Eastern and Southern African countries. AGRODEP Working Paper 0003. http://www.hyalina.com/sites/ default/files/AGRODEPWP0003.pdf (Access Date: 18.02.2025).
  • Ben Jebli, M., & Ben Youssef, S. (2017). Renewable energy consumption and agriculture: Evidence for cointegration and Granger causality for Tunisian economy. International Journal of Sustainable Development & World Ecology, 24(2), 149-158.
  • Céu, M. S., & Gaspar, R. M. (2024). A review on climate change, credit risk and agriculture. Rural Sustainability Research, 51, 38-49.
  • Dellal, İ. (2021). İklim Değişikliği ve Tarım. https://tkv-dft.org.tr/upload/IklimDegisikligiveTarim%20-%20Prof.Dr.IlkayDellal.pdf (Access Date: 15.02.2025).
  • Doğan, N. (2019). The impact of agriculture on CO2 emissions in China. Panoeconomicus, 66(2), 257-271. Doğan, S., & Tüzer, M. (2011). Global climate change and its potential effects. Cumhuriyet University Journal of Economics and Administrative Sciences, 12(1), 21-34.
  • Erdinç, Z., & Aydınbaş, G. (2021). Panel data analysis of value-added agriculture determinants. Anadolu University Journal of Social Sciences, 21(1), 213-232.
  • Eştürk, Ö., & Mert, N. (2022). Analyzing the effects of global climate change on grain and forage crops productivity in Ardahan province with ARDL model. KSU J. Agric Nat, 25(Suppl. 2), 506-514. https://doi.org/10.18016/ksutarimdoga.vi.1011936
  • Eştürk, Ö., Aydın, F. F., & Levent, C. (2023). The impact of agriculture and industry sectors on environmental pollution: An econometric application in selected OECD member countries. Ardahan University Journal of the Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences,5(2),109-116. http://doi.org/10.58588/aru-jfeas.1379450
  • Fendoğlu, E., & Canpolat Gökçe, E. (2019). Stationarity of Turkey’s tourism revenues series: Fourier KPSS stationarity test. EKOIST: Journal of Econometrics and Statistics, 31, 17-28.
  • Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) (2024). FAO Türkiye. https://www.fao.org/turkiye/tr/ (Access Date: 18.02.2025).
  • Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). (2020). The State of Food and Agriculture 2020. Overcoming water challenges in agriculture, Rome. https://doi.org/10.4060/cb1447en (Access Date: 15.02.2025).
  • Gündüz, M. (2020). The link between unemployment and industrial production: The fourier approach with structural breaks. Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast, 13(3), 228-240. Doi: 10.15838/esc.2020.3.69.15
  • Hayaloğlu, P. (2019). The effects of climate change on agriculture sector and economic. Gümüşhane University Journal of Social Sciences, 9(25), 51-62.
  • He, W., Chen, W., Chandio, A. A., Zhang, B., & Jiang, Y. (2022). Does agricultural credit mitigate the effect of climate change on cereal production? Evidence from Sichuan province, China. Atmosphere, 13(2), 336. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos13020336
  • Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (2007). IPCC Summary for Policymakers. https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_SPM.pdf (Access Date:18.02.2025).
  • Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (2014). AR5 Synthesis Report: Climate Change 2014. https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/SYR_AR5_FINAL_full.pdf (Access Date: 18.02.2025).
  • Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). (2021). Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Cambridge University Press. https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/ IPCC_AR6_WGI_FullReport.pdf (Access Date: 15.02.2025).
  • International Energy Agency (IEA). (2021). World Energy Outlook 2021. IEA Publications. https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/4ed140c1-c3f3-4fd9-acae- 789a4e14a23c/WorldEnergyOutlook2021.pdf (Access Date: 15.02.2025).
  • Iqbal, K., & Siddique, A. (2014). The impact of climate change on agricultural productivity: Evidence from panel data of Bangladesh. No 14-29, Economics Discussion / Working Papers from The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics. https://research-repository.uwa.edu.au/en/publications/the-impact-of-climate-change-on-agricultural-productivity-evidenc-2 (Access Date:18.02.2025).
  • Khalid, A. A., Mahmood, F., & Rukh, G. (2016). Impact of climate changes on economic and agricultural value added share in GDP. Asian Management Research Journal, 1(1), 35-48.
  • Kızılkaya, O., & Konat, G. (2019). Are fluctuations in electricity consumption permanent or transitory? An empirical analysis for Turkey. EKOIST Journal of Econometrics and Statistics, 30, 53-62. https://doi.org/10.26650/ekoist.2019.30.0017
  • Kwiatkowski, D., Phillips, P. C., Schmidt, P., & Shin, Y. (1992). Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root: How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root? Journal of Econometrics, 54(1-3), 159-178. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4076(92)90104-Y
  • Liu, T. (2024). Save the Farms: Nonlinear Impact of Climate Change on Banks' Agricultural Lending. University of California, Santa Cruz. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4944954 (Access Date: 15.02.2025).
  • Lobell, D. B., & Field, C. B. (2007). Global scale climate crop yield relationships and the impacts of recent warming. Environmental Research Letters, 2(1), 014002. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/2/1/014002
  • Mahato, A. (2014). Climate change and its impact on agriculture. International Journal of Scientific and Research Publications, 4(4), 1-6.
  • Mertz, O., Halsnæs, K., Olesen, J. E., & Rasmussen, K. (2009). Adaptation to climate change in developing countries. Environmental Management, 43, 743-752. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00267-008-9259-3
  • Nastis, S. A., Michailidis, A., & Chatzitheodoridis, F. (2012). Climate change and agricultural productivity. African Journal of Agricultural Research, 7(35), 4885-4893.
  • Olagunju, F. I., Adeojo, R. J., Ayojimi, W., Awe, T. E., & Oriade, O. A. (2023). Causal nexus between agricultural credit rationing and repayment performance: A two-stage Tobit regression. AIMS Agriculture and Food, 8(1), 151-163. https://doi.org/10.3934/agrfood.2023008
  • Önder, F. (2023). The impact of agricultural loans on growth in Turkey: A panel data analysis. Turkish Journal of Agricultural and Natural Sciences, 10(4), 1039-1050. https://doi.org/10.30910/turkjans.1353569
  • Özbek, S., & Özbek, B. (2024). Does climate change strengthen the link between environmental degradation and agricultural output? Empirical evidence on the Turkish economy. Turkish Journal of Agricultural Economics, 30(1), 49-60. https://doi.org/10.24181/tarekoder.1472242
  • Özkurt, İ. C. (2024). Impact of climate change on agricultural production in Türkiye. KSU J. Agric Nat, 27(Suppl. 1), 263-275. https://doi.org/10.18016/ksutarimdoga.vi.1394627
  • Qi, M. (2021). Green credit, financial ecological environment, and investment efficiency. Complexity, 2021(1), 5539195. https://doi.org/10.1155/2021/5539195
  • Raihan, A., & Tuspekova, A. (2022). Dynamic impacts of economic growth, renewable energy use, urbanization, industrialization, tourism, agriculture, and forests on carbon emissions in Turkey. Carbon Research, 1(1), 20. https://doi.org/10.1007/s44246-022-00019-z
  • Republic of Türkiye Ministry of Environment, Urbanisation and Climate Change Directorate of Climate Change (2025). Frequently Asked Questions. https://iklim.gov.tr/sss/temel-kavramlar (Access Date:18.02.2025).
  • Sabasi, D., Shumway, C. R., & Kompaniyets, L. (2021). Analysis of credit access, U.S. agricultural productivity, and residual returns to resources. Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, 53(3), 389-415. https://doi.org/10.1017/aae.2021.17
  • Shin, Y. (1994). A residual-based test of the null of cointegration against the alternative of no cointegration. Econometric Theory, 10(1), 91-115. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0266466600008240
  • Singh, M., & Islam, E. (2024). Do lenders pay attention to climate risk? Evidence from Farm Loans. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4935069 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4935069 (Access Date: 15.02.2025).
  • Terin, M., Güler, İ. O., & Aksoy, A. (2014). Causal relationship between agricultural production and agricultural credit use in Turkey. Iğdır University Journal of the Institute of Science and Technology, 4(1), 67-72.
  • Tsong, C. C., Lee, C. F., Tsai, L. J., & Hu, T. C. (2016). The Fourier approximation and testing for the null of cointegration. Empirical Economics, 51, 1085-1113. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-015-1028-6
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There are 53 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language English
Subjects Sustainable Agricultural Development, Agricultural Policy, Agricultural Economics (Other)
Journal Section RESEARCH ARTICLE
Authors

Onur Şeyranlıoğlu 0000-0002-1105-4034

Ayşegül Han 0000-0002-3390-2129

Gökçen Aydınbaş 0000-0001-9435-5387

Early Pub Date August 14, 2025
Publication Date October 18, 2025
Submission Date March 7, 2025
Acceptance Date July 31, 2025
Published in Issue Year 2025 Volume: 28 Issue: 6

Cite

APA Şeyranlıoğlu, O., Han, A., & Aydınbaş, G. (2025). The Impact of Climate Change and Environmental Degradation on Agricultural Credit Usage: Evidence from Türkiye with Fourier Approximations. Kahramanmaraş Sütçü İmam Üniversitesi Tarım Ve Doğa Dergisi, 28(6), 1516-1530. https://doi.org/10.18016/ksutarimdoga.vi.1652184
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