Öz
Although Turkey has significantly increased beef production in the last fifty years via livestock protection and domestic support policies, self-sufficiency and price stability has not been sufficiently achieved. Forecasting is essential to analyse the structure of the beef market and evaluate the sector. This study aimed to forecast beef production of Turkey by considering structural breaks. The data of the study was time series of beef production for the period 1961-2019 and it was obtained from the Turkish Statistical Institute and, Food and Agriculture Organization. Data was analysed and forecasted using ARIMA Model. The results indicated that ARIMA (1, 1, 0) is the best-fitted model and beef production would regularly increase in four years period and reach 1,133,687 tons in 2023. This research concluded that despite two structural breaks of beef production in 1983 and 2009, imports and domestic support policies substantially shaped the trend of beef time series in the last decade in Turkey.
Anahtar Kelimeler
Time Series Analysis Structural Break Box-Jenkins Beef Production Turkey
Kaynakça
- Akgül S, Yıldız Ş 2016. Red Meat Production Forecast and Policy Recommendations in Line with 2023 Targets in Turkey. European Journal of Multidisciplinary Studies 1(2): 432-439.
- Alhas Eroglu N, Bozoğlu M, Kılıç Topuz B, Başer U 2019. Forecasting the Amount of Beef Production in Turkey. The Journal of Agricultural Economics Researches 5(2):101-107.
- Alhas Eroglu N, Bozoglu M 2019. The Effects of Livestock Supports and External Input Use on Profitability of Beef Cattle Farming: the Case of Samsun Province, Turkey. Custos Agronegócio 15(3):368-383.
- Anonymous 2018. 2019 Yılı Cumhurbaşkanlığı Yıllık Programı http://www.sbb.gov.tr/wp-content/ uploads/2018/11/2019 Yili Cumhurbaskanligi Yillik Programi.pdf.
- Ayyıldız M, Çiçek A 2018. Kırmızı Et Fiyatlarının GARCH Yöntemiyle Analizi: Türkiye Örneği. Türk Tarım – Gıda Bilim ve Teknoloji Dergisi 6(12): 1775-1780
- Box GEP, Jenkins G.M, 1976. Time Series Analysis, Forecasting and Control. 3d Edition, Holden-Day: San Francisco.
- Çelik Ş 2012. Türkiye’de Kırmızı Et Üretiminin Box-Jenkins Yöntemiyle Modellenmesi ve Üretim Projeksiyonu. Hayvansal Üretim 53(2): 32-39.
- Çelik Ş 2017. Investigation of Red Meat Production in Turkey by ANOM Test. Journal of Agricultural Science and Technology A 7: 209-213.
- Çelik C, Sarıözkan S 2017. Economic Analysis of Cattle Fattening Enterprises in the Centre of Kırşehir Province. Harran University, Journal of the Faculty of Veterinary Medicine 6(1):38-45.
- Cenan N, Gürcan İS 2011. Forward projection of the number of farm animals of Turkey: ARIMA modelling. Journal of Turkish Veterinary Medical Society 82(1): 35-42.
- FAO 2020a. Food and Agriculture Organization, Databases, Production, Value of Agricultural Production. http://www.fao.org/faostat/e/#data/ QV. [Accessed on March 2020].
- FAO 2020b. Food and Agriculture Organization, Databases, Production, Livestock Primary. http://www.fao.org/ faostat/ e/# data/ QVL. [Accessed on March 2020].
- Gözener B, Sayılı M 2015. Production cost and factors affecting live weight gain in cattle fattening in the Turhal district of Tokat province. Journal of Agricultural Sciences 21(2):288-299.
- Karkacıer O 2000. An Analysis of Import Demand for Dairy Products in Turkey. Turk J Agric For 24:421-427.
- Kaygısız F, Sezgin FH 2017. Forecasting goat milk production in Turkey using Artificial Neural Networks and Box-Jenkins models. Animal Review 4(3):45-52.
- Koşum N, Taşkın T, Engindeniz S, Kandemir Ç 2019. Goat Meat Production and Evaluation of its Sustainability in Turkey. Ege Üniv. Ziraat Fak. Derg. 56 (3): 395-407.
- Küçükoflaz M, Akçay A, Çelik E, Sarıözkan S 2019. Türkiye’de kırmızı et ve süt fiyatlarının Box-Jenkins modeller ile geleceğe yönelik kestirimleri. Vet Hekim Der Derg 90 (2): 122-131.
- Lee J, Strazicich MC 2001. Break Point Estimation and Spurious Rejections with Endogenous Unit Root Tests. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics 63:535-558.
- Lee J, Strazicich MC 2003. Minimum Lagrange multiplier unit root test with two structural breaks. The Review of Economics and Statistics 85(4):1082-1089
- Lee J, Strazicich MC 2004. Minimum LM unit root test with one structural break. Economics Bulletin 33(4): 2483-2492.
- MoFAL 2015. Strategy of Red Meat. Ministry of Food Agriculture and Livestock, General Directorate of Livestock, Ankara.
- Ordu M, Zengin Y 2020. A comparative forecasting approach to forecast animal production: A case of Turkey. Livestock Studies 60(1): 25-32.
- Özen D, Tekindal MA, Çevrimli MB 2019. Modeling and Forecasting Meat Consumption per Capita in Turkey. Journal of Faculty of Medicine, Erciyes University 16(2): 122-129.
- TurkStat 2014. Turkish Statistical Institute, Statistical Indicators 1923-2013, Publication no: 4361
- TurkStat 2019. Turkish Statistical Institute, Statistics by Theme, Livestock Statistics. Metadata
- TurkStat 2020a. Turkish Statistical Institute, Main Statistics, Livestock Production. https://biruni. tuik.gov.tr/medas/?kn=92andlocale =tr
- TurkStat 2020b. Turkish Statistical Institute, Main Statistics, Price of Animal Product. https:// biruni.tuik.gov.tr/medas/?kn=92andlocale= tr
- TurkStat 2020c. Turkish Statistical Institute, Main statistics, Population and Demography, Population Statisctics. http://www.turkstat.gov.tr/UstMenu.do?metod =temelist
- TurkStat 2020d. Turkish Statistical Institute, Main statistics, Education, Culture, Sport and Tourism, Tourism Income, Expenditure and Average Number of Nights. http://www.turkstat.gov.tr/ UstMenu.do?metod=
- Yavuz F, Bilgiç A, Terin M, Güler IO 2013. Policy implications of trends in Turkey's meat sector with respect to 2023 vision. Meat Science 95(4): 798-804.
- Yavuz F, Zulauf CR 2004. Introducing a New Approach to Estimating Red Meat Production in Turkey. Turk J Vet Anim Sci 28: 641-648.
- Yıldırım A, Altunç ÖF 2020. Muş İli Süt Üretiminin ARIMA Modeli ile Tahmini. Anemon Muş Alparslan Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi 8:137-146.
Öz
Türkiye hayvancılığı koruma ve destekleme politikaları ile son elli yılda sığır eti üretimini önemli ölçüde artırmış olmasına rağmen, kendi kendine yeterlilik ve fiyat istikrarı konusunda yeterince başarı sağlayamamıştır. Sığır etinin tahmin edilmesi, sığır eti pazarının yapısını analiz etmek ve sektörü değerlendirmek için gereklidir. Bu çalışmada yapısal kırılmalar dikkate alınarak Türkiye'deki sığır eti üretiminin tahmin edilmesi amaçlanmıştır. Araştırmanın verileri Türkiye İstatistik Kurumu ve FAO’dan alınan 1961-2019 dönemi sığır eti üretim verileridir. Verilerin analizi ve tahmini ARIMA Modeli kullanılarak yapılmıştır. Sonuçlara göre ARIMA (1, 1, 0) modelinin en uygun model olduğu, sığır eti üretiminin dört yıllık dönemde düzenli olarak artacağı ve üretimin 2023'te 1,133,687 tona ulaşacağı öngörülmektedir. Türkiye'de sığır eti üretiminde 1983 ve 2009 yıllarındaki iki yapısal kırılmaya rağmen, ithalat ve yurtiçi destek politikalarının son on yılda üretimi önemli ölçüde şekillendirdiği ortaya konmuştur.
Anahtar Kelimeler
Zaman serisi analizi Yapısal kırılma Boz-Jenkins Türkiye Sığır Eti
Kaynakça
- Akgül S, Yıldız Ş 2016. Red Meat Production Forecast and Policy Recommendations in Line with 2023 Targets in Turkey. European Journal of Multidisciplinary Studies 1(2): 432-439.
- Alhas Eroglu N, Bozoğlu M, Kılıç Topuz B, Başer U 2019. Forecasting the Amount of Beef Production in Turkey. The Journal of Agricultural Economics Researches 5(2):101-107.
- Alhas Eroglu N, Bozoglu M 2019. The Effects of Livestock Supports and External Input Use on Profitability of Beef Cattle Farming: the Case of Samsun Province, Turkey. Custos Agronegócio 15(3):368-383.
- Anonymous 2018. 2019 Yılı Cumhurbaşkanlığı Yıllık Programı http://www.sbb.gov.tr/wp-content/ uploads/2018/11/2019 Yili Cumhurbaskanligi Yillik Programi.pdf.
- Ayyıldız M, Çiçek A 2018. Kırmızı Et Fiyatlarının GARCH Yöntemiyle Analizi: Türkiye Örneği. Türk Tarım – Gıda Bilim ve Teknoloji Dergisi 6(12): 1775-1780
- Box GEP, Jenkins G.M, 1976. Time Series Analysis, Forecasting and Control. 3d Edition, Holden-Day: San Francisco.
- Çelik Ş 2012. Türkiye’de Kırmızı Et Üretiminin Box-Jenkins Yöntemiyle Modellenmesi ve Üretim Projeksiyonu. Hayvansal Üretim 53(2): 32-39.
- Çelik Ş 2017. Investigation of Red Meat Production in Turkey by ANOM Test. Journal of Agricultural Science and Technology A 7: 209-213.
- Çelik C, Sarıözkan S 2017. Economic Analysis of Cattle Fattening Enterprises in the Centre of Kırşehir Province. Harran University, Journal of the Faculty of Veterinary Medicine 6(1):38-45.
- Cenan N, Gürcan İS 2011. Forward projection of the number of farm animals of Turkey: ARIMA modelling. Journal of Turkish Veterinary Medical Society 82(1): 35-42.
- FAO 2020a. Food and Agriculture Organization, Databases, Production, Value of Agricultural Production. http://www.fao.org/faostat/e/#data/ QV. [Accessed on March 2020].
- FAO 2020b. Food and Agriculture Organization, Databases, Production, Livestock Primary. http://www.fao.org/ faostat/ e/# data/ QVL. [Accessed on March 2020].
- Gözener B, Sayılı M 2015. Production cost and factors affecting live weight gain in cattle fattening in the Turhal district of Tokat province. Journal of Agricultural Sciences 21(2):288-299.
- Karkacıer O 2000. An Analysis of Import Demand for Dairy Products in Turkey. Turk J Agric For 24:421-427.
- Kaygısız F, Sezgin FH 2017. Forecasting goat milk production in Turkey using Artificial Neural Networks and Box-Jenkins models. Animal Review 4(3):45-52.
- Koşum N, Taşkın T, Engindeniz S, Kandemir Ç 2019. Goat Meat Production and Evaluation of its Sustainability in Turkey. Ege Üniv. Ziraat Fak. Derg. 56 (3): 395-407.
- Küçükoflaz M, Akçay A, Çelik E, Sarıözkan S 2019. Türkiye’de kırmızı et ve süt fiyatlarının Box-Jenkins modeller ile geleceğe yönelik kestirimleri. Vet Hekim Der Derg 90 (2): 122-131.
- Lee J, Strazicich MC 2001. Break Point Estimation and Spurious Rejections with Endogenous Unit Root Tests. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics 63:535-558.
- Lee J, Strazicich MC 2003. Minimum Lagrange multiplier unit root test with two structural breaks. The Review of Economics and Statistics 85(4):1082-1089
- Lee J, Strazicich MC 2004. Minimum LM unit root test with one structural break. Economics Bulletin 33(4): 2483-2492.
- MoFAL 2015. Strategy of Red Meat. Ministry of Food Agriculture and Livestock, General Directorate of Livestock, Ankara.
- Ordu M, Zengin Y 2020. A comparative forecasting approach to forecast animal production: A case of Turkey. Livestock Studies 60(1): 25-32.
- Özen D, Tekindal MA, Çevrimli MB 2019. Modeling and Forecasting Meat Consumption per Capita in Turkey. Journal of Faculty of Medicine, Erciyes University 16(2): 122-129.
- TurkStat 2014. Turkish Statistical Institute, Statistical Indicators 1923-2013, Publication no: 4361
- TurkStat 2019. Turkish Statistical Institute, Statistics by Theme, Livestock Statistics. Metadata
- TurkStat 2020a. Turkish Statistical Institute, Main Statistics, Livestock Production. https://biruni. tuik.gov.tr/medas/?kn=92andlocale =tr
- TurkStat 2020b. Turkish Statistical Institute, Main Statistics, Price of Animal Product. https:// biruni.tuik.gov.tr/medas/?kn=92andlocale= tr
- TurkStat 2020c. Turkish Statistical Institute, Main statistics, Population and Demography, Population Statisctics. http://www.turkstat.gov.tr/UstMenu.do?metod =temelist
- TurkStat 2020d. Turkish Statistical Institute, Main statistics, Education, Culture, Sport and Tourism, Tourism Income, Expenditure and Average Number of Nights. http://www.turkstat.gov.tr/ UstMenu.do?metod=
- Yavuz F, Bilgiç A, Terin M, Güler IO 2013. Policy implications of trends in Turkey's meat sector with respect to 2023 vision. Meat Science 95(4): 798-804.
- Yavuz F, Zulauf CR 2004. Introducing a New Approach to Estimating Red Meat Production in Turkey. Turk J Vet Anim Sci 28: 641-648.
- Yıldırım A, Altunç ÖF 2020. Muş İli Süt Üretiminin ARIMA Modeli ile Tahmini. Anemon Muş Alparslan Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi 8:137-146.
Ayrıntılar
| Birincil Dil | İngilizce |
|---|---|
| Konular | Ziraat, Veterinerlik ve Gıda Bilimleri |
| Bölüm | ARAŞTIRMA MAKALESİ (Research Article) |
| Yazarlar | |
| Yayımlanma Tarihi | 31 Ekim 2021 |
| Gönderilme Tarihi | 19 Ekim 2020 |
| Kabul Tarihi | 1 Mart 2021 |
| Yayımlandığı Sayı | Yıl 2021 |
Cited By
An Assessment of Beef Market in Turkey: Current Status and Future Prospects
Tarım Ekonomisi Araştırmaları Dergisi
https://doi.org/10.61513/tead.1176269
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