Global Pistachio Production Forecasts for 2020–2025

Ahmet Semih Uzundumlu; Veysel Pınar; Nur Ertek Tosun; Hediye Kumbasaroğlu

doi:10.18016/ksutarimdoga.vi.1397897

EN TR

Global Pistachio Production Forecasts for 2020–2025

Abstract

Using 59 years of pistachio production data between 1961 and 2019, the production data of the leading countries in the 2020-2025 periods were tried to be predicted with the help of the ARIMA time series model. ARIMA (p, d, q) analysis model has been used by obtaining 59 years of production data from the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). In addition, the data obtained from the Turkish Statistical Institute (TSI), FAO, and the International Trade Centre (ITC) were also used in the comparison of production, export, and import per capita. In the study, the world production data for the period of 2020-2025 were to be estimated with the data between 1961-2019. As a result of the findings obtained, according to the data obtained in the world, Iran, USA, Turkey, China, and Syria, an increase in production is foreseen in all countries and the world where studies are carried out in pistachio production. While the share of the five countries, which are the leaders in Pistachio production between 1961 and 2019, in the total world production is 97.99%, the share of Pistachio production between 2020-2025 in the total production is expected to be 97.51%. While the share of Iran and Syria from these five countries in world production will decrease, the share of the USA, Turkey, and China will increase. The two leading countries in pistachio exports are Iran and the USA. The fact that Germany, which does not influence production, has a significant share in both exports and imports brings to mind the derivative demand situation. Turkey, Iran, and Syria can create a better marketing strategy by reducing imports to Germany and increasing exports to European Union countries.

Keywords

2020-2025 Yılları için Dünya Geneli Antepfıstığı Üretim Tahminleri

Öz

1961-2019 yıllarını kapsayan 59 yıllık antepfıstığı üretim verileri kullanılarak, önde gelen ülkelerin 2020-2025 dönemindeki üretim verileri ARIMA zaman serisi modeli yardımıyla tahmin edilmeye çalışılmıştır. Birleşmiş Milletler Gıda ve Tarım Örgütü'nden (FAO) 59 yıllık üretim verileri alınarak ARIMA (p, d, q) analiz modeli kullanılmıştır. Ayrıca kişi başına üretim, ihracat ve ithalat karşılaştırmalarında Türkiye İstatistik Kurumu (TSI), FAO ve Uluslararası Ticaret Merkezi'nden (ITC) elde edilen veriler de kullanılmıştır. Çalışmada 1961-2019 yılları arasındaki verilerle 2020-2025 dönemine ait dünya üretim verileri tahmin edilmeye çalışılmıştır. Elde edilen bulgular sonucunda dünyada İran, ABD, Türkiye, Çin ve Suriye'de elde edilen verilere göre antepfıstığı üretiminde çalışma yürütülen tüm ülkelerde ve dünyada üretim artışı öngörülmüştür.1961-2019 yılları arasında antepfıstığı üretiminde lider olan beş ülkenin toplam dünya üretimindeki payı %97,99 iken, 2020-2025 yılları arasında %97,51 olması beklenmektedir. Bu beş ülkeden İran ve Suriye'nin dünya üretimindeki payı azalırken, ABD, Türkiye ve Çin'in payı artacaktır. Antepfıstığı ihracatında lider iki ülke İran ve ABD’dir. Üretimde hiçbir etkisi olmayan Almanya’nın da hem ihracatta hem ithalatta önemli bir payının olması türev talep durumunu akla getirmektedir. Özellikle Türkiye, İran ve Suriye Almanya'ya yapılan ithalatı azaltıp, Avrupa Birliği ülkelerindeki ihracatlarını artırarak daha iyi bir pazarlama stratejisi yapabilirler.

Anahtar Kelimeler

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Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil

İngilizce

Konular

Sürdürülebilir Tarımsal Kalkınma , Tarımsal Yönetimde Pazarlama

Bölüm

Araştırma Makalesi

Yazarlar

Ahmet Semih Uzundumlu
0000-0001-9714-2053
Türkiye

Veysel Pınar
0000-0001-5064-3758
Türkiye

Nur Ertek Tosun ^*
0000-0002-3475-5888
Türkiye

Hediye Kumbasaroğlu
0000-0003-0266-3775
Türkiye

Erken Görünüm Tarihi

2 Temmuz 2024

Yayımlanma Tarihi

17 Eylül 2024

Gönderilme Tarihi

29 Kasım 2023

Kabul Tarihi

11 Şubat 2024

Yayımlandığı Sayı

Yıl 1970 Cilt: 27 Sayı: 5

DOI

https://doi.org/10.18016/ksutarimdoga.vi.1397897

IZ

https://izlik.org/JA48ZT63AE

Kaynak Göster

RIS / Bibtex

APA

Uzundumlu, A. S., Pınar, V., Ertek Tosun, N., & Kumbasaroğlu, H. (2024). Global Pistachio Production Forecasts for 2020–2025. Kahramanmaraş Sütçü İmam Üniversitesi Tarım ve Doğa Dergisi, 27(5), 1105-1115. https://doi.org/10.18016/ksutarimdoga.vi.1397897