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The Effect Of Grain Prices On Food Inflation: A Forward-Looking Evaluation Among The Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Yıl 2024, Cilt: 27 Sayı: 3, 656 - 664

Musa Türkoğlu Ayşe Durgun

https://doi.org/10.18016/ksutarimdoga.vi.1289252

Öz

The present study investigates how grain prices have been affecting food inflation in the wake of the recent pandemic and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict. This study examines the effects on inflation of the limitations on exports of wheat, barley and corn products by Russia and Ukraine on the food inflation in Asia and North Africa by using cointegration test. Drawing upon monthly data from the 2000:01–2020:08 period, the study reveals that the food price index and grain prices in both Asia and North Africa are cointegrated in the long term, and that in both country groups wheat price increases in particular are triggering an increase in food prices.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Grain Prices Food Inflation Johansen Co-integration Testing

Kaynakça

  • Akçelik F. & Tuğer, B. (2015). Uluslararası hububat fiyatlarinin yurt içi fiyatlara yansimasi. TCMB Ekonomi Notları, Sayı: 2015-05.
  • Ciner, C. (2011). Commodity prices and inflation: Testing in the frequency domain. Research in International Business and Finance, 25(3), 229 - 237
  • FAO. (2022a). https://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/ foodpricesindex/en/, (Date of access: 29.04.2022).
  • FAO. (2022b). Information Note, The importance of Ukraine and the Russian Federation for global agricultural markets and the risks associated with the current conflict, Executive Summary, https://www.fao.org/3/cb9236en/cb9236en.pdf, (Date of access: 02.04.2022).
  • Furceria, D., Loungani, P., Simon J. & Wachterd, S. M. (2016). Global food prices and domestic inflation: some cross-country evidence. Oxford Economic Papers, 68(3), 665–687, doi: 10.1093/oep/gpw016
  • Gonzalo, J. (1994). Five Alternative Methods of Estimating Long-run Equlibirium Relationships. Journal of Econometrics. 60, 203–234
  • Granger, C.W & Newbold, J. P. (1974). Spurious regressions in econometrics. Journal of Econometrics, 2. IGC. (2022a). Declaration, 6 April 2022, https://www. igc.int/en/downloads/2022/Council-Declaration_06-04-2022.pdf
  • IGC. (2022b). Grain Market Report, https://www.igc. int/en/gmr_summary.aspx. (Date of access 28.05.2022).
  • Jalil, M. & Zea. E. T. (2011). Pass-through of International Food Prices to Domestic Inflation During and After the Great Recession: Evidence from a Set of Latin American Economies. Desarrollo y sociedad primer semestre de, 135-179.
  • Juselius, K. (1999). Models and relations in economics and econometrics, Journal of Economic Methodology, (6), 259-290.
  • Kaltalioglu M. & Soytas U. (2011). Volatility spillover from Oil to Food and Agricultural Raw Material Markets. Modern Economy, 2011, 2, 71-76 doi:10.4236/me.2011.22011
  • Lee H. & Park, Cyn-Y. (2013). International transmission of food prices and volatilities: A panel analysis. ADB Economics Working Paper Series, no:373, Asian Development Bank
  • Lütkepol, H., saikkonen, P. & Trenkler, C. (2000). Maximum eigenvalue versus trace tests fort he cointegrating rank of a VAR process. SFB 373 discussion paper, no:83.
  • Maros, I. & Martin, W. (2008). Implications of higher global food prices for poverty in low-income countries. Policy Research Working Paper, Report No. WPS 4594. The World Bank, Washington, DC.
  • Mittal, A.( 2009). The 2008 food price crisis: Rethinking food security policies, G-24 discussion paper series. United Nations Conference on trade and development, No. 56, United Nations
  • Nazlıoğlu, Ş. & Soytaş, U. (2012). Oil price, agricultural commodity prices, and the dollar: A panel cointegration and causality analysis. Energy Economics 34, 1098–1104.
  • OECD. (2022a). OECD economic outlook, volume 2022 Issue 1: Preliminary version, No. 111, OECD Publishing, Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/ 62d0ca31-en.
  • OECD. (2022b). OECD economic outlook, interim report march 2022: Economic and Social Impacts and policy implications of the war in Ukraine, OECD Publishing, Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/4181d61b-en.
  • Ott, H. (2014). Volatility in cereal prices: Intra- versus inter-annual volatility. Journal of Agricultural Economics,65( 3), 557–578 doi: 10.1111/1477-9552.12073
  • Rajput, H., Changotra R., Rajput P., Gautam, S., Anjani, R. K. Gollakota, • Amarpreet Singh A., (2021). A shock like no other: Coronavirus rattles commodity markets. Environment, Development and Sustainability 23, 6564– 6575 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-020-00934-4
  • Sasmal, J. (2015). Food price inflation in India: The growing economy with sluggish agriculture. Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Science 20 ,30–40.
  • Sevüktekin M. & M. Nargeleçekenler. ( 2010). Ekonometrik Zaman Serileri Analizi. Ankara. Nobel Yayın Dağıtım. Çaşkurlu,. S. (2011). Küresel gıda krizi: üçüncü gıda rejimi, küresel sermaye ve gelişmekte olan ülkeler. Ekonomik Yaklaşım, 23, Özel Sayı,161-194.
  • Tarı, R. (2011). Ekonometri. Umuttepe Yayınları, Kocaeli.
  • Tule, M. K., Salisu, A. A. & Chiemeke, C.C. (2019). Can agricultural commodity prices predict Nigeria's inflation? Journal of Commodity Markets,16, 1-21.
  • UNCTAD. (2008). The least developed countries report 2008. United Nations publication. New York and Geneva.
  • Varlık N. & Yeşil Balıkçıoğlu, E. (2021). Kırılgan beşlide gıda fiyatlarının enflasyona geçiş etkisi, Akademik Hassasiyetler, 8(16), 23-39.

Tahıl Fiyatlarının Gıda Enflasyonu Üzerindeki Etkisi: Rusya-Ukrayna Çatışmasında İleriye Yönelik Bir Değerlendirme

Yıl 2024, Cilt: 27 Sayı: 3, 656 - 664

Musa Türkoğlu Ayşe Durgun

https://doi.org/10.18016/ksutarimdoga.vi.1289252

Öz

Bu çalışmada son dönemde yaşanan Pandemi ve Rusya-Ukrayna çatışması odağında hububat fiyatlarının gıda enflasyonunu nasıl etkilediği araştırılmıştır. Bu amaçla Rusya ve Ukrayna’nın en fazla ihraç ettiği buğday, arpa ve mısır ürünlerinin Asya ve Kuzey Afrika ülkelerinin gıda enflasyonu üzerindeki etkileri eşbütünleşme testi ile incelenmiştir. Çalışmada 2000:01-2020:08 dönemi aylık veriler kullanılmıştır. Elde edilen bulgulara göre, hem Asya hem de Afrika ülkelerinin gıda fiyat endeksi ile hububat fiyatları uzun dönemde eşbütünleşik çıkmışlardır. Özellikle buğday fiyat artışları her iki ülke grubunda da gıda fiyat artışını yukarı yönlü tetiklemektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Tahıl fiyatları Gıda enflasyonu Johansen Eşbütünlşme Testi

Kaynakça

  • Akçelik F. & Tuğer, B. (2015). Uluslararası hububat fiyatlarinin yurt içi fiyatlara yansimasi. TCMB Ekonomi Notları, Sayı: 2015-05.
  • Ciner, C. (2011). Commodity prices and inflation: Testing in the frequency domain. Research in International Business and Finance, 25(3), 229 - 237
  • FAO. (2022a). https://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/ foodpricesindex/en/, (Date of access: 29.04.2022).
  • FAO. (2022b). Information Note, The importance of Ukraine and the Russian Federation for global agricultural markets and the risks associated with the current conflict, Executive Summary, https://www.fao.org/3/cb9236en/cb9236en.pdf, (Date of access: 02.04.2022).
  • Furceria, D., Loungani, P., Simon J. & Wachterd, S. M. (2016). Global food prices and domestic inflation: some cross-country evidence. Oxford Economic Papers, 68(3), 665–687, doi: 10.1093/oep/gpw016
  • Gonzalo, J. (1994). Five Alternative Methods of Estimating Long-run Equlibirium Relationships. Journal of Econometrics. 60, 203–234
  • Granger, C.W & Newbold, J. P. (1974). Spurious regressions in econometrics. Journal of Econometrics, 2. IGC. (2022a). Declaration, 6 April 2022, https://www. igc.int/en/downloads/2022/Council-Declaration_06-04-2022.pdf
  • IGC. (2022b). Grain Market Report, https://www.igc. int/en/gmr_summary.aspx. (Date of access 28.05.2022).
  • Jalil, M. & Zea. E. T. (2011). Pass-through of International Food Prices to Domestic Inflation During and After the Great Recession: Evidence from a Set of Latin American Economies. Desarrollo y sociedad primer semestre de, 135-179.
  • Juselius, K. (1999). Models and relations in economics and econometrics, Journal of Economic Methodology, (6), 259-290.
  • Kaltalioglu M. & Soytas U. (2011). Volatility spillover from Oil to Food and Agricultural Raw Material Markets. Modern Economy, 2011, 2, 71-76 doi:10.4236/me.2011.22011
  • Lee H. & Park, Cyn-Y. (2013). International transmission of food prices and volatilities: A panel analysis. ADB Economics Working Paper Series, no:373, Asian Development Bank
  • Lütkepol, H., saikkonen, P. & Trenkler, C. (2000). Maximum eigenvalue versus trace tests fort he cointegrating rank of a VAR process. SFB 373 discussion paper, no:83.
  • Maros, I. & Martin, W. (2008). Implications of higher global food prices for poverty in low-income countries. Policy Research Working Paper, Report No. WPS 4594. The World Bank, Washington, DC.
  • Mittal, A.( 2009). The 2008 food price crisis: Rethinking food security policies, G-24 discussion paper series. United Nations Conference on trade and development, No. 56, United Nations
  • Nazlıoğlu, Ş. & Soytaş, U. (2012). Oil price, agricultural commodity prices, and the dollar: A panel cointegration and causality analysis. Energy Economics 34, 1098–1104.
  • OECD. (2022a). OECD economic outlook, volume 2022 Issue 1: Preliminary version, No. 111, OECD Publishing, Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/ 62d0ca31-en.
  • OECD. (2022b). OECD economic outlook, interim report march 2022: Economic and Social Impacts and policy implications of the war in Ukraine, OECD Publishing, Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/4181d61b-en.
  • Ott, H. (2014). Volatility in cereal prices: Intra- versus inter-annual volatility. Journal of Agricultural Economics,65( 3), 557–578 doi: 10.1111/1477-9552.12073
  • Rajput, H., Changotra R., Rajput P., Gautam, S., Anjani, R. K. Gollakota, • Amarpreet Singh A., (2021). A shock like no other: Coronavirus rattles commodity markets. Environment, Development and Sustainability 23, 6564– 6575 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-020-00934-4
  • Sasmal, J. (2015). Food price inflation in India: The growing economy with sluggish agriculture. Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Science 20 ,30–40.
  • Sevüktekin M. & M. Nargeleçekenler. ( 2010). Ekonometrik Zaman Serileri Analizi. Ankara. Nobel Yayın Dağıtım. Çaşkurlu,. S. (2011). Küresel gıda krizi: üçüncü gıda rejimi, küresel sermaye ve gelişmekte olan ülkeler. Ekonomik Yaklaşım, 23, Özel Sayı,161-194.
  • Tarı, R. (2011). Ekonometri. Umuttepe Yayınları, Kocaeli.
  • Tule, M. K., Salisu, A. A. & Chiemeke, C.C. (2019). Can agricultural commodity prices predict Nigeria's inflation? Journal of Commodity Markets,16, 1-21.
  • UNCTAD. (2008). The least developed countries report 2008. United Nations publication. New York and Geneva.
  • Varlık N. & Yeşil Balıkçıoğlu, E. (2021). Kırılgan beşlide gıda fiyatlarının enflasyona geçiş etkisi, Akademik Hassasiyetler, 8(16), 23-39.
Toplam 26 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil İngilizce
Konular Tarım Ekonomisi (Diğer)
Bölüm ARAŞTIRMA MAKALESİ (Research Article)
Yazarlar

Musa Türkoğlu 0000-0001-7662-9647

Ayşe Durgun 0000-0002-8062-7473

Erken Görünüm Tarihi 11 Mart 2024
Yayımlanma Tarihi
Gönderilme Tarihi 28 Nisan 2023
Kabul Tarihi 2 Kasım 2023
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2024Cilt: 27 Sayı: 3

Kaynak Göster

APA Türkoğlu, M., & Durgun, A. (2024). The Effect Of Grain Prices On Food Inflation: A Forward-Looking Evaluation Among The Russia-Ukraine Conflict. Kahramanmaraş Sütçü İmam Üniversitesi Tarım Ve Doğa Dergisi, 27(3), 656-664. https://doi.org/10.18016/ksutarimdoga.vi.1289252
 Kapak Resmi İndir

21082



2022-JIF = 0.500

2022-JCI = 0.170

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