Determining the Dynamics Affecting Forest Areas in Türkiye with the ARDL Model

Didem Doğar; Adnan Çiçek

doi:10.18016/ksutarimdoga.vi.1753213

TR EN

Türkiye’de Orman Alanlarını Etkileyen Dinamiklerin ARDL Modeli ile Belirlenmesi

Öz

Bu çalışma; sanayileşme, nüfus artışı, işlenebilir tarım alanı ve sera gazı emisyonlarının 1990-2022 dönemi yıllık verileri kullanılarak Türkiye’deki orman alanları üzerindeki etkilerini ARDL sınır testi yaklaşımıyla incelemektedir. Tahmin sonuçları, sanayileşme ile orman alanı arasında uzun vadede pozitif bir ilişki (β = 6.627589, p <.01), işlenebilir tarım alanı (β = -6.969850, p <.01), nüfus artışı (β = -2.293148, p <.01) ve sera gazı emisyonları (β = -0.660565, p <.01) ile negatif bir ilişki olduğunu göstermektedir. Sanayileşmenin olumlu etkisi, ormancılık politikalarının sanayi gelişimiyle bütünleşmesi ve sürdürülebilir sanayi uygulamaları ile karbon dengeleme mekanizmalarının yaygınlaşmasıyla açıklanabilir. Buna karşılık, tarımsal genişleme ve demografik baskı, orman varlıklarını sistematik olarak azaltmaktadır. Politika önerileri arasında; arazilerin artırılması yerine verimlilik odaklı üretime geçilmesi, orman, tarım ve yerleşim alanları arasındaki sınırların orman öncelikli mekânsal planlama ile yönetilmesi, uydu tabanlı MRV (ölçüm, raporlama ve doğrulama) ve arazi kullanım değişikliği izinlerinin sıkılaştırılması, kompakt kent formunun ve orman arayüzünde yangın riski yönetiminin öncelenmesi ile sera gazı emisyon azaltımı politikalarının bu araçlarla uyumlu hale getirilmesi yer almaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Determining the Dynamics Affecting Forest Areas in Türkiye with the ARDL Model

Abstract

This study investigates how industrialization, population growth, cultivated agricultural land, and greenhouse gas emissions affect forest area in Türkiye using annual data for 1990-2022 and an ARDL bounds testing approach. The estimates indicate a positive long run association between industrialization and forest area (β = 6.627589, p <.01) and negative association with cultivated agricultural land (β = -6.969850, p <.01), population growth (β = -2.293148, p <.01), and greenhouse gas emissions (β = -0.660565, p <.01). The positive industrialization effect likely reflects the integration of forestry policy with industrial development and the diffusion of sustainable industrial practices and carbon balancing mechanisms. By contrast, agricultural expansion and demographic pressure systematically reduce forest assets. Policy implications include shifting from land extensive growth to productivity oriented production; managing forest, agriculture and settlement interfaces through forest prioritized spatial planning, tightening satellite based MRV (measurement, reporting and verification) and land use conversion permits, prioritizing compact urban form and fire risk management at the wildland and aligning greenhouse gas emission, mitigation policy with these instruments to protect and expand forests sustainability.

Keywords

References

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Details

Primary Language

English

Subjects

Agricultural Economics (Other)

Journal Section

Research Article

Authors

Didem Doğar ^*
0000-0003-0330-255X
Türkiye

Adnan Çiçek
0000-0002-2671-1439
Türkiye

Early Pub Date

February 10, 2026

Publication Date

February 10, 2026

Submission Date

July 29, 2025

Acceptance Date

October 17, 2025

Published in Issue

Year 2026 Volume: 29 Number: 3

DOI

https://doi.org/10.18016/ksutarimdoga.vi.1753213

IZ

https://izlik.org/JA72XU89PH

Cite

RIS / Bibtex

APA

Doğar, D., & Çiçek, A. (2026). Determining the Dynamics Affecting Forest Areas in Türkiye with the ARDL Model. Kahramanmaraş Sütçü İmam Üniversitesi Tarım Ve Doğa Dergisi, 29(3), 811-823. https://doi.org/10.18016/ksutarimdoga.vi.1753213