Sustainable Land Use for Climate Change Mitigation: The Impact of Agricultural Land Capacity on Emissions in Türkiye

Ayberk Şeker

doi:10.18016/ksutarimdoga.vi.1871182

TR EN

İklim Değişikliğinin Azaltılmasında Sürdürülebilir Arazi Kullanımı: Tarım Arazisi Kapasitesinin Türkiye'deki Emisyonlar Üzerindeki Etkisi

Abstract

Bu çalışma, Tarım Arazisi Yük Kapasite Faktörünün (CROPLCF) sera gazı (GHG) ve CO₂ emisyonları üzerindeki etkilerini analiz ederek, Türkiye’nin karbonsuzlaşma sürecinde tarımsal arazi sürdürülebilirliğinin rolünü incelemektedir. Bunun yanı sıra, Çevresel Kuznets Eğrisi (EKC) hipotezi test edilmekte ve ekonomik büyüme, tarımsal katma değer ile tarımsal ticaret arasındaki dinamik etkileşimler araştırılmaktadır. Analizlerde, 1970–2024 dönemine ait yıllık veriler kullanılmaktadır. Uzun ve kısa dönemli ilişkiler Otoregresif Dağıtılmış Gecikme (ARDL) sınır testi yaklaşımıyla incelenirken, olası yapısal kırılmalar Zivot–Andrews birim kök testi aracılığıyla ele alınmaktadır. Ayrıca, farklı zaman ufuklarında değişkenler arasındaki nedensel ilişkileri belirlemek amacıyla frekans alanı nedensellik analizi uygulanmaktadır. Elde edilen bulgular, emisyonlar, ekonomik büyüme, CROPLCF, tarımsal katma değer ve tarımsal ticaret arasında istikrarlı bir uzun dönemli eşbütünleşme ilişkisinin varlığını doğrulamaktadır. Sonuçlar, CROPLCF ve tarımsal katma değerin GHG ve CO₂ emisyonlarını anlamlı ölçüde azalttığını, buna karşılık ekonomik büyüme ve tarımsal ticaretin emisyonlar üzerinde pozitif bir etki yarattığını göstermektedir. CROPLCF'teki %1'lik bir iyileşmenin, uzun dönemde toplam sera gazı emisyonlarını yaklaşık %0.83, CO₂ emisyonlarını ise %0.55 oranında azalttığı tespit edilmiştir. EKC hipotezi Türkiye örneği için doğrulanmıştır. Nedensellik analizleri, özellikle orta ve uzun vadede değişkenler arasında çift yönlü etkileşimlerin bulunduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Bulgular, sürdürülebilir tarımsal arazi kullanımının ekolojik taşıma kapasitesini artırarak emisyon azaltımını desteklediğini, buna karşın ticaret odaklı tarımsal genişlemenin çevresel baskıları artırabileceğini göstermektedir. Bu sonuçlar, tarımsal arazi yönetiminin iklim politikasının merkezine yerleştirilmesi gerektiğini göstermektedir. Türkiye'nin 2053 net-sıfır hedefine ulaşması için, CROPLCF'nin resmi izleme sistemlerine entegre edilmesi, toprak organik karbonunu artıran uygulamaların (azaltılmış toprak işleme, örtü bitkileri) teşvik edilmesi ve tarımsal ticaretin çevresel ayak izinin azaltılması kritik öneme sahiptir.

Keywords

Sustainable Land Use for Climate Change Mitigation: The Impact of Agricultural Land Capacity on Emissions in Türkiye

Abstract

This study examines the role of agricultural land sustainability in Türkiye’s decarbonization pathway by analyzing the impact of the Cropland Load Capacity Factor (CROPLCF) on greenhouse gas (GHG) and CO₂ emissions. It also tests the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis and explores the dynamic interactions between economic growth, agricultural value added, and agricultural trade. The analysis employs annual data for the period 1970–2024. Long- and short-run relationships are investigated using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach, while structural breaks are addressed through the Zivot–Andrews unit root test. Additionally, frequency domain causality analysis is applied to identify time-varying causal linkages across different horizons. The findings confirm a stable long-run cointegration relationship among emissions, economic growth, CROPLCF, agricultural value added, and agricultural trade. CROPLCF and agricultural value added significantly reduce GHG and CO₂ emissions, whereas economic growth and agricultural trade exert a positive effect on emissions. A one-percent increase in CROPLCF is associated with a long-run decline in environmental pressures, leading to an estimated 0.83% reduction in overall greenhouse gas emissions and a 0.55% decrease in CO₂ emissions. The EKC hypothesis is validated for Türkiye. Causality results reveal bidirectional interactions, particularly in the medium and long run. The results suggest that sustainable agricultural land use enhances ecological carrying capacity and supports emission mitigation, while trade-oriented agricultural expansion may intensify environmental pressures. The findings suggest that strategies for managing agricultural land need to play a central role in climate policy design. In the case of Türkiye, progress toward the 2053 net-zero objective will likely depend on formally incorporating CROPLCF indicators into national monitoring frameworks, encouraging farming practices that enhance soil organic carbon—such as reduced tillage and the use of cover crops—and lowering the environmental impacts associated with agricultural trade.

Keywords

References

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Details

Primary Language

English

Subjects

Sustainable Agricultural Development, Agricultural Policy, Agricultural Economics (Other)

Journal Section

Research Article

Authors

Ayberk Şeker ^*
0000-0001-7750-6286
Türkiye

Early Pub Date

October 23, 2026

Publication Date

-

Submission Date

January 25, 2026

Acceptance Date

March 17, 2026

Published in Issue

Year 2026 Number: Advanced Online Publication

DOI

https://doi.org/10.18016/ksutarimdoga.vi.1871182

IZ

https://izlik.org/JA26SM24XR

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RIS / Bibtex

APA

Şeker, A. (2026). Sustainable Land Use for Climate Change Mitigation: The Impact of Agricultural Land Capacity on Emissions in Türkiye. Kahramanmaraş Sütçü İmam Üniversitesi Tarım Ve Doğa Dergisi, Advanced Online Publication. https://doi.org/10.18016/ksutarimdoga.vi.1871182

AMA

1.Şeker A. Sustainable Land Use for Climate Change Mitigation: The Impact of Agricultural Land Capacity on Emissions in Türkiye. KSU J. Agric Nat. 2026;(Advanced Online Publication). doi:10.18016/ksutarimdoga.vi.1871182

Chicago

Şeker, Ayberk. 2026. “Sustainable Land Use for Climate Change Mitigation: The Impact of Agricultural Land Capacity on Emissions in Türkiye”. Kahramanmaraş Sütçü İmam Üniversitesi Tarım Ve Doğa Dergisi, no. Advanced Online Publication. https://doi.org/10.18016/ksutarimdoga.vi.1871182.

EndNote

Şeker A (October 1, 2026) Sustainable Land Use for Climate Change Mitigation: The Impact of Agricultural Land Capacity on Emissions in Türkiye. Kahramanmaraş Sütçü İmam Üniversitesi Tarım ve Doğa Dergisi Advanced Online Publication

IEEE

[1]A. Şeker, “Sustainable Land Use for Climate Change Mitigation: The Impact of Agricultural Land Capacity on Emissions in Türkiye”, KSU J. Agric Nat., no. Advanced Online Publication, Oct. 2026, doi: 10.18016/ksutarimdoga.vi.1871182.

ISNAD

Şeker, Ayberk. “Sustainable Land Use for Climate Change Mitigation: The Impact of Agricultural Land Capacity on Emissions in Türkiye”. Kahramanmaraş Sütçü İmam Üniversitesi Tarım ve Doğa Dergisi. Advanced Online Publication (October 1, 2026). https://doi.org/10.18016/ksutarimdoga.vi.1871182.

JAMA

1.Şeker A. Sustainable Land Use for Climate Change Mitigation: The Impact of Agricultural Land Capacity on Emissions in Türkiye. KSU J. Agric Nat. 2026. doi:10.18016/ksutarimdoga.vi.1871182.

MLA

Şeker, Ayberk. “Sustainable Land Use for Climate Change Mitigation: The Impact of Agricultural Land Capacity on Emissions in Türkiye”. Kahramanmaraş Sütçü İmam Üniversitesi Tarım Ve Doğa Dergisi, no. Advanced Online Publication, Oct. 2026, doi:10.18016/ksutarimdoga.vi.1871182.

Vancouver

1.Ayberk Şeker. Sustainable Land Use for Climate Change Mitigation: The Impact of Agricultural Land Capacity on Emissions in Türkiye. KSU J. Agric Nat. 2026 Oct. 1;(Advanced Online Publication). doi:10.18016/ksutarimdoga.vi.1871182