Slow Adjustment, High Concentration: Structural Risks in Global Vegetable Oil Supply

Burak Öztornacı

doi:10.18016/ksutarimdoga.vi.1929525

EN TR

Slow Adjustment, High Concentration: Structural Risks in Global Vegetable Oil Supply

Abstract

Vegetable oils play a strategic role in global food systems. Global supply is largely dominated by soybean oil and palm oil, while production remains concentrated in a limited number of countries. This study examines how delayed supply response and concentration affect vulnerability using global data for 1990–2024. A model-based approach shows that production responds slowly to prices, with limited adjustment. Yield shocks have stronger effects. a 10% decline reduces output by about 3% and is not fully offset. Soybean oil adjusts faster than palm oil. Concentration remains stable, limiting diversification. The interaction of slow adjustment and concentration creates persistent supply gaps, increasing price pressure and exposure in import-dependent regions, with implications for food system resilience.

Keywords

Ethical Statement

Authors have declared no conflict of interest

Yavaş Uyum, Yüksek Yoğunluk: Küresel Bitkisel Yağ Arzındaki Yapısal Riskler

Abstract

ÖZET Bitkisel yağlar, küresel gıda sistemlerinin merkezinde yer almaktadır; bu sistemde soya fasulyesi ve palmiye yağı baskındır ve üretim birkaç ülkede yoğunlaşmıştır. Bu çalışma, 1990–2024 yıllarına ait küresel verileri kullanarak, arzın gecikmeli tepkisi ve yoğunlaşmanın kırılganlığı nasıl etkilediğini incelemektedir. Model tabanlı bir yaklaşım, üretimin fiyatlara yavaş tepki verdiğini ve ayarlamanın sınırlı olduğunu göstermektedir. Verim şoklarının etkileri daha güçlüdür. %10'luk bir düşüş, üretimi yaklaşık %3 oranında azaltır ve bu düşüş tam olarak telafi edilmez. Soya yağı, palmiye yağından daha hızlı ayarlanır. Yoğunlaşma istikrarlı kalır ve çeşitliliği sınırlar. Yavaş uyum ve yoğunlaşmanın etkileşimi, kalıcı arz açıkları yaratarak ithalata bağımlı bölgelerde fiyat baskısını ve maruz kalmayı artırır ve bunun da gıda sisteminin dayanıklılığı üzerinde etkileri olur. Anahtar Kelimeler: bitkisel yağlar, arz dengeleme, üretim yoğunlaşması, gıda sisteminin kırılganlığı, arzın dayanıklılığı

Keywords

Ethical Statement

Tüm yazarlar makalelerinde, sonuçları veya yorumları etkileyebilecek herhangi bir maddi veya diğer asli çıkar çatışması olmadığını beyan ederler

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Details

Primary Language

English

Subjects

Agricultural Policy, Agricultural Economics (Other)

Journal Section

Research Article

Authors

Burak Öztornacı ^*
0000-0001-7675-419X
Türkiye

Early Pub Date

October 23, 2026

Publication Date

-

Submission Date

April 13, 2026

Acceptance Date

October 15, 2026

Published in Issue

Year 2026 Number: Advanced Online Publication

DOI

https://doi.org/10.18016/ksutarimdoga.vi.1929525

IZ

https://izlik.org/JA29JU82AG

Cite

RIS / Bibtex

APA

Öztornacı, B. (2026). Slow Adjustment, High Concentration: Structural Risks in Global Vegetable Oil Supply. Kahramanmaraş Sütçü İmam Üniversitesi Tarım Ve Doğa Dergisi, Advanced Online Publication. https://doi.org/10.18016/ksutarimdoga.vi.1929525

AMA

1.Öztornacı B. Slow Adjustment, High Concentration: Structural Risks in Global Vegetable Oil Supply. KSU J. Agric Nat. 2026;(Advanced Online Publication). doi:10.18016/ksutarimdoga.vi.1929525

Chicago

Öztornacı, Burak. 2026. “Slow Adjustment, High Concentration: Structural Risks in Global Vegetable Oil Supply”. Kahramanmaraş Sütçü İmam Üniversitesi Tarım Ve Doğa Dergisi, no. Advanced Online Publication. https://doi.org/10.18016/ksutarimdoga.vi.1929525.

EndNote

Öztornacı B (October 1, 2026) Slow Adjustment, High Concentration: Structural Risks in Global Vegetable Oil Supply. Kahramanmaraş Sütçü İmam Üniversitesi Tarım ve Doğa Dergisi Advanced Online Publication

IEEE

[1]B. Öztornacı, “Slow Adjustment, High Concentration: Structural Risks in Global Vegetable Oil Supply”, KSU J. Agric Nat., no. Advanced Online Publication, Oct. 2026, doi: 10.18016/ksutarimdoga.vi.1929525.

ISNAD

Öztornacı, Burak. “Slow Adjustment, High Concentration: Structural Risks in Global Vegetable Oil Supply”. Kahramanmaraş Sütçü İmam Üniversitesi Tarım ve Doğa Dergisi. Advanced Online Publication (October 1, 2026). https://doi.org/10.18016/ksutarimdoga.vi.1929525.

JAMA

1.Öztornacı B. Slow Adjustment, High Concentration: Structural Risks in Global Vegetable Oil Supply. KSU J. Agric Nat. 2026. doi:10.18016/ksutarimdoga.vi.1929525.

MLA

Öztornacı, Burak. “Slow Adjustment, High Concentration: Structural Risks in Global Vegetable Oil Supply”. Kahramanmaraş Sütçü İmam Üniversitesi Tarım Ve Doğa Dergisi, no. Advanced Online Publication, Oct. 2026, doi:10.18016/ksutarimdoga.vi.1929525.

Vancouver

1.Burak Öztornacı. Slow Adjustment, High Concentration: Structural Risks in Global Vegetable Oil Supply. KSU J. Agric Nat. 2026 Oct. 1;(Advanced Online Publication). doi:10.18016/ksutarimdoga.vi.1929525