Slow Adjustment, High Concentration: Structural Risks in Global Vegetable Oil Supply

Burak Öztornacı

doi:10.18016/ksutarimdoga.vi.1929525

EN TR

Slow Adjustment, High Concentration: Structural Risks in Global Vegetable Oil Supply

Öz

Vegetable oils play a strategic role in global food systems. Global supply is largely dominated by soybean oil and palm oil, while production remains concentrated in a limited number of countries. This study examines how delayed supply response and concentration affect vulnerability using global data for 1990–2024. A model-based approach shows that production responds slowly to prices, with limited adjustment. Yield shocks have stronger effects. a 10% decline reduces output by about 3% and is not fully offset. Soybean oil adjusts faster than palm oil. Concentration remains stable, limiting diversification. The interaction of slow adjustment and concentration creates persistent supply gaps, increasing price pressure and exposure in import-dependent regions, with implications for food system resilience.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Etik Beyan

Authors have declared no conflict of interest

Yavaş Uyum, Yüksek Yoğunluk: Küresel Bitkisel Yağ Arzındaki Yapısal Riskler

Öz

ÖZET Bitkisel yağlar, küresel gıda sistemlerinin merkezinde yer almaktadır; bu sistemde soya fasulyesi ve palmiye yağı baskındır ve üretim birkaç ülkede yoğunlaşmıştır. Bu çalışma, 1990–2024 yıllarına ait küresel verileri kullanarak, arzın gecikmeli tepkisi ve yoğunlaşmanın kırılganlığı nasıl etkilediğini incelemektedir. Model tabanlı bir yaklaşım, üretimin fiyatlara yavaş tepki verdiğini ve ayarlamanın sınırlı olduğunu göstermektedir. Verim şoklarının etkileri daha güçlüdür. %10'luk bir düşüş, üretimi yaklaşık %3 oranında azaltır ve bu düşüş tam olarak telafi edilmez. Soya yağı, palmiye yağından daha hızlı ayarlanır. Yoğunlaşma istikrarlı kalır ve çeşitliliği sınırlar. Yavaş uyum ve yoğunlaşmanın etkileşimi, kalıcı arz açıkları yaratarak ithalata bağımlı bölgelerde fiyat baskısını ve maruz kalmayı artırır ve bunun da gıda sisteminin dayanıklılığı üzerinde etkileri olur. Anahtar Kelimeler: bitkisel yağlar, arz dengeleme, üretim yoğunlaşması, gıda sisteminin kırılganlığı, arzın dayanıklılığı

Anahtar Kelimeler

Etik Beyan

Tüm yazarlar makalelerinde, sonuçları veya yorumları etkileyebilecek herhangi bir maddi veya diğer asli çıkar çatışması olmadığını beyan ederler

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Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil

İngilizce

Konular

Tarım Politikaları, Tarım Ekonomisi (Diğer)

Bölüm

Araştırma Makalesi

Yazarlar

Burak Öztornacı ^*
0000-0001-7675-419X
Türkiye

Erken Görünüm Tarihi

23 Ekim 2026

Yayımlanma Tarihi

-

Gönderilme Tarihi

13 Nisan 2026

Kabul Tarihi

15 Ekim 2026

Yayımlandığı Sayı

Yıl 2026 Sayı: Advanced Online Publication

DOI

https://doi.org/10.18016/ksutarimdoga.vi.1929525

IZ

https://izlik.org/JA29JU82AG

Kaynak Göster

RIS / Bibtex

APA

Öztornacı, B. (2026). Slow Adjustment, High Concentration: Structural Risks in Global Vegetable Oil Supply. Kahramanmaraş Sütçü İmam Üniversitesi Tarım ve Doğa Dergisi, Advanced Online Publication. https://doi.org/10.18016/ksutarimdoga.vi.1929525

AMA

1.Öztornacı B. Slow Adjustment, High Concentration: Structural Risks in Global Vegetable Oil Supply. Kahramanmaraş Sütçü İmam Üniversitesi Tarım ve Doğa Dergisi. 2026;(Advanced Online Publication). doi:10.18016/ksutarimdoga.vi.1929525

Chicago

Öztornacı, Burak. 2026. “Slow Adjustment, High Concentration: Structural Risks in Global Vegetable Oil Supply”. Kahramanmaraş Sütçü İmam Üniversitesi Tarım ve Doğa Dergisi, sy Advanced Online Publication. https://doi.org/10.18016/ksutarimdoga.vi.1929525.

EndNote

Öztornacı B (01 Ekim 2026) Slow Adjustment, High Concentration: Structural Risks in Global Vegetable Oil Supply. Kahramanmaraş Sütçü İmam Üniversitesi Tarım ve Doğa Dergisi Advanced Online Publication

IEEE

[1]B. Öztornacı, “Slow Adjustment, High Concentration: Structural Risks in Global Vegetable Oil Supply”, Kahramanmaraş Sütçü İmam Üniversitesi Tarım ve Doğa Dergisi, sy Advanced Online Publication, Eki. 2026, doi: 10.18016/ksutarimdoga.vi.1929525.

ISNAD

Öztornacı, Burak. “Slow Adjustment, High Concentration: Structural Risks in Global Vegetable Oil Supply”. Kahramanmaraş Sütçü İmam Üniversitesi Tarım ve Doğa Dergisi. Advanced Online Publication (01 Ekim 2026). https://doi.org/10.18016/ksutarimdoga.vi.1929525.

JAMA

1.Öztornacı B. Slow Adjustment, High Concentration: Structural Risks in Global Vegetable Oil Supply. Kahramanmaraş Sütçü İmam Üniversitesi Tarım ve Doğa Dergisi. 2026. doi:10.18016/ksutarimdoga.vi.1929525.

MLA

Öztornacı, Burak. “Slow Adjustment, High Concentration: Structural Risks in Global Vegetable Oil Supply”. Kahramanmaraş Sütçü İmam Üniversitesi Tarım ve Doğa Dergisi, sy Advanced Online Publication, Ekim 2026, doi:10.18016/ksutarimdoga.vi.1929525.

Vancouver

1.Burak Öztornacı. Slow Adjustment, High Concentration: Structural Risks in Global Vegetable Oil Supply. Kahramanmaraş Sütçü İmam Üniversitesi Tarım ve Doğa Dergisi. 01 Ekim 2026;(Advanced Online Publication). doi:10.18016/ksutarimdoga.vi.1929525

Slow Adjustment, High Concentration: Structural Risks in Global Vegetable Oil Supply

Öz

Anahtar Kelimeler

Etik Beyan

Yavaş Uyum, Yüksek Yoğunluk: Küresel Bitkisel Yağ Arzındaki Yapısal Riskler

Öz

Anahtar Kelimeler

Etik Beyan

Kaynakça

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil

Konular

Bölüm

Yazarlar

Erken Görünüm Tarihi

Yayımlanma Tarihi

Gönderilme Tarihi

Kabul Tarihi

Yayımlandığı Sayı

DOI

IZ

Kaynak Göster

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