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2020-2025 Yılları için Dünya Geneli Antepfıstığı Üretim Tahminleri

Year 2024, Volume: 27 Issue: 5, 1105 - 1115

Ahmet Semih Uzundumlu Veysel Pınar Nur Ertek Tosun Hediye Kumbasaroğlu

https://doi.org/10.18016/ksutarimdoga.vi.1397897

Abstract

1961-2019 yıllarını kapsayan 59 yıllık antepfıstığı üretim verileri kullanılarak, önde gelen ülkelerin 2020-2025 dönemindeki üretim verileri ARIMA zaman serisi modeli yardımıyla tahmin edilmeye çalışılmıştır. Birleşmiş Milletler Gıda ve Tarım Örgütü'nden (FAO) 59 yıllık üretim verileri alınarak ARIMA (p, d, q) analiz modeli kullanılmıştır. Ayrıca kişi başına üretim, ihracat ve ithalat karşılaştırmalarında Türkiye İstatistik Kurumu (TSI), FAO ve Uluslararası Ticaret Merkezi'nden (ITC) elde edilen veriler de kullanılmıştır. Çalışmada 1961-2019 yılları arasındaki verilerle 2020-2025 dönemine ait dünya üretim verileri tahmin edilmeye çalışılmıştır. Elde edilen bulgular sonucunda dünyada İran, ABD, Türkiye, Çin ve Suriye'de elde edilen verilere göre antepfıstığı üretiminde çalışma yürütülen tüm ülkelerde ve dünyada üretim artışı öngörülmüştür.1961-2019 yılları arasında antepfıstığı üretiminde lider olan beş ülkenin toplam dünya üretimindeki payı %97,99 iken, 2020-2025 yılları arasında %97,51 olması beklenmektedir. Bu beş ülkeden İran ve Suriye'nin dünya üretimindeki payı azalırken, ABD, Türkiye ve Çin'in payı artacaktır. Antepfıstığı ihracatında lider iki ülke İran ve ABD’dir. Üretimde hiçbir etkisi olmayan Almanya’nın da hem ihracatta hem ithalatta önemli bir payının olması türev talep durumunu akla getirmektedir. Özellikle Türkiye, İran ve Suriye Almanya'ya yapılan ithalatı azaltıp, Avrupa Birliği ülkelerindeki ihracatlarını artırarak daha iyi bir pazarlama stratejisi yapabilirler.

Keywords

ARIMA modeli Dünya Lider ülkeler Tahmin Antepfıstığı.

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Global Pistachio Production Forecasts for 2020–2025

Year 2024, Volume: 27 Issue: 5, 1105 - 1115

Ahmet Semih Uzundumlu Veysel Pınar Nur Ertek Tosun Hediye Kumbasaroğlu

https://doi.org/10.18016/ksutarimdoga.vi.1397897

Abstract

Using 59 years of pistachio production data between 1961 and 2019, the production data of the leading countries in the 2020-2025 periods were tried to be predicted with the help of the ARIMA time series model. ARIMA (p, d, q) analysis model has been used by obtaining 59 years of production data from the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). In addition, the data obtained from the Turkish Statistical Institute (TSI), FAO, and the International Trade Centre (ITC) were also used in the comparison of production, export, and import per capita. In the study, the world production data for the period of 2020-2025 were to be estimated with the data between 1961-2019. As a result of the findings obtained, according to the data obtained in the world, Iran, USA, Turkey, China, and Syria, an increase in production is foreseen in all countries and the world where studies are carried out in pistachio production. While the share of the five countries, which are the leaders in Pistachio production between 1961 and 2019, in the total world production is 97.99%, the share of Pistachio production between 2020-2025 in the total production is expected to be 97.51%. While the share of Iran and Syria from these five countries in world production will decrease, the share of the USA, Turkey, and China will increase. The two leading countries in pistachio exports are Iran and the USA. The fact that Germany, which does not influence production, has a significant share in both exports and imports brings to mind the derivative demand situation. Turkey, Iran, and Syria can create a better marketing strategy by reducing imports to Germany and increasing exports to European Union countries.

Keywords

ARIMA model World Leader countries Predict Pistachio

References

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  • Karacan, E. & Ceylan, R.F. (2017). The Analysis of the Effect of Pistachio Price on the Decision of Producers. Kastamonu Üniversity Journal of faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences. (Special Issue) 18(1), 88-100. https://dergipark.org.tr/en/download/article-file/361079
  • Karacan, E. & Ceylan, R.F. (2020). Factors Affecting Pistachio Exports in Turkey, Iran and the USA. International Journal of Agriculture Forestry and Life Sciences. 4(2), 255-262. https://dergipark. org.tr/ en/download/article-file/1399661
  • Kaynar, O. & Tastan, S. (2009). Comparasion of MLP Artifical Neural Network and ARIMA Method in Time Series Analysis. Erciyes University Journal of Economics and Administrative Sciences. (33), 161-172. https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/erciyesiibd/ issue/ 5890/77918
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There are 53 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language English
Subjects Sustainable Agricultural Development, Marketing in Agricultural Management
Journal Section RESEARCH ARTICLE
Authors

Ahmet Semih Uzundumlu 0000-0001-9714-2053

Veysel Pınar 0000-0001-5064-3758

Nur Ertek Tosun 0000-0002-3475-5888

Hediye Kumbasaroğlu 0000-0003-0266-3775

Early Pub Date July 2, 2024
Publication Date
Submission Date November 29, 2023
Acceptance Date February 11, 2024
Published in Issue Year 2024Volume: 27 Issue: 5

Cite

APA Uzundumlu, A. S., Pınar, V., Ertek Tosun, N., Kumbasaroğlu, H. (2024). Global Pistachio Production Forecasts for 2020–2025. Kahramanmaraş Sütçü İmam Üniversitesi Tarım Ve Doğa Dergisi, 27(5), 1105-1115. https://doi.org/10.18016/ksutarimdoga.vi.1397897
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