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2020-2025 Yılları için Dünya Geneli Antepfıstığı Üretim Tahminleri

Yıl 2024, Cilt: 27 Sayı: 5, 1105 - 1115, 17.09.2024

Ahmet Semih Uzundumlu , Veysel Pınar , Nur Ertek Tosun , Hediye Kumbasaroğlu

https://doi.org/10.18016/ksutarimdoga.vi.1397897

Öz

1961-2019 yıllarını kapsayan 59 yıllık antepfıstığı üretim verileri kullanılarak, önde gelen ülkelerin 2020-2025 dönemindeki üretim verileri ARIMA zaman serisi modeli yardımıyla tahmin edilmeye çalışılmıştır. Birleşmiş Milletler Gıda ve Tarım Örgütü'nden (FAO) 59 yıllık üretim verileri alınarak ARIMA (p, d, q) analiz modeli kullanılmıştır. Ayrıca kişi başına üretim, ihracat ve ithalat karşılaştırmalarında Türkiye İstatistik Kurumu (TSI), FAO ve Uluslararası Ticaret Merkezi'nden (ITC) elde edilen veriler de kullanılmıştır. Çalışmada 1961-2019 yılları arasındaki verilerle 2020-2025 dönemine ait dünya üretim verileri tahmin edilmeye çalışılmıştır. Elde edilen bulgular sonucunda dünyada İran, ABD, Türkiye, Çin ve Suriye'de elde edilen verilere göre antepfıstığı üretiminde çalışma yürütülen tüm ülkelerde ve dünyada üretim artışı öngörülmüştür.1961-2019 yılları arasında antepfıstığı üretiminde lider olan beş ülkenin toplam dünya üretimindeki payı %97,99 iken, 2020-2025 yılları arasında %97,51 olması beklenmektedir. Bu beş ülkeden İran ve Suriye'nin dünya üretimindeki payı azalırken, ABD, Türkiye ve Çin'in payı artacaktır. Antepfıstığı ihracatında lider iki ülke İran ve ABD’dir. Üretimde hiçbir etkisi olmayan Almanya’nın da hem ihracatta hem ithalatta önemli bir payının olması türev talep durumunu akla getirmektedir. Özellikle Türkiye, İran ve Suriye Almanya'ya yapılan ithalatı azaltıp, Avrupa Birliği ülkelerindeki ihracatlarını artırarak daha iyi bir pazarlama stratejisi yapabilirler.

Anahtar Kelimeler

ARIMA modeli Dünya Lider ülkeler Tahmin Antepfıstığı.

Kaynakça

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  • Almadani, M.I.N. (2014). Risk Attitude, Risk Perceptions and Risk Management Strategies: An Empirical Analysis of Syrian Wheat-Cotton and Pistachio Farmers. [Ph.D. thesis, Georg-August-University, The International Ph.D. Program for Agricultural Sciences in Gottingen (IPAG) at the Faculty of Agricultural Sciences].
  • ArunKumar, K.E., Kalaga, D.V., Kumar, C.M.S., Chilkoor, G., Kawaji, M. & Brenza, T. M. (2021). Forecasting the Dynamics of Cumulative Covid-19 Cases (Confirmed, recovered and Deaths) for Top-16 Countries Using Statistical Machine Learning Models: Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) And Seasonal Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA). Applied Soft Computing. 103, 107161, 1-26. https://www. sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1568494621000843
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  • Kaynar, O. & Tastan, S. (2009). Comparasion of MLP Artifical Neural Network and ARIMA Method in Time Series Analysis. Erciyes University Journal of Economics and Administrative Sciences. (33), 161-172. https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/erciyesiibd/ issue/ 5890/77918
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Global Pistachio Production Forecasts for 2020–2025

Yıl 2024, Cilt: 27 Sayı: 5, 1105 - 1115, 17.09.2024

Ahmet Semih Uzundumlu , Veysel Pınar , Nur Ertek Tosun , Hediye Kumbasaroğlu

https://doi.org/10.18016/ksutarimdoga.vi.1397897

Öz

Using 59 years of pistachio production data between 1961 and 2019, the production data of the leading countries in the 2020-2025 periods were tried to be predicted with the help of the ARIMA time series model. ARIMA (p, d, q) analysis model has been used by obtaining 59 years of production data from the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). In addition, the data obtained from the Turkish Statistical Institute (TSI), FAO, and the International Trade Centre (ITC) were also used in the comparison of production, export, and import per capita. In the study, the world production data for the period of 2020-2025 were to be estimated with the data between 1961-2019. As a result of the findings obtained, according to the data obtained in the world, Iran, USA, Turkey, China, and Syria, an increase in production is foreseen in all countries and the world where studies are carried out in pistachio production. While the share of the five countries, which are the leaders in Pistachio production between 1961 and 2019, in the total world production is 97.99%, the share of Pistachio production between 2020-2025 in the total production is expected to be 97.51%. While the share of Iran and Syria from these five countries in world production will decrease, the share of the USA, Turkey, and China will increase. The two leading countries in pistachio exports are Iran and the USA. The fact that Germany, which does not influence production, has a significant share in both exports and imports brings to mind the derivative demand situation. Turkey, Iran, and Syria can create a better marketing strategy by reducing imports to Germany and increasing exports to European Union countries.

Anahtar Kelimeler

ARIMA model World Leader countries Predict Pistachio

Kaynakça

  • Acpistachio, (2021). Pistachio-Statistics of USA. https://acpistachios.org/wp-content/ uploads/ 2021/01/2020-Pistachio-Statistics.pdf. Accesed Date: 23.04.2022.
  • AEPDI, (2022). Agricultural Products Markets. Pistachios, Agricultural Economy and Policy Development Institute, Ankara Turkey. https://arastirma.tarimorman.gov.tr/tepge/Menu/27/Tarim-Urunleri-Piyasalari. Accesed Date: 21.04.2022.
  • Alabdulrazzaq, H., Alenezi, M.N., Rawajfih, Y., Alghannam, B.A., Al-Hassan, A.A. & Al-Anzi, F.S. (2021). On the Accuracy of ARIMA Based Prediction of COVID-19 Spread. Results in Physics. 27, 104509, 1-17. https://www.sciencedirect.com/ science/article/pii/S2211379721006197
  • Almadani, M.I.N. (2014). Risk Attitude, Risk Perceptions and Risk Management Strategies: An Empirical Analysis of Syrian Wheat-Cotton and Pistachio Farmers. [Ph.D. thesis, Georg-August-University, The International Ph.D. Program for Agricultural Sciences in Gottingen (IPAG) at the Faculty of Agricultural Sciences].
  • ArunKumar, K.E., Kalaga, D.V., Kumar, C.M.S., Chilkoor, G., Kawaji, M. & Brenza, T. M. (2021). Forecasting the Dynamics of Cumulative Covid-19 Cases (Confirmed, recovered and Deaths) for Top-16 Countries Using Statistical Machine Learning Models: Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) And Seasonal Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA). Applied Soft Computing. 103, 107161, 1-26. https://www. sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1568494621000843
  • Asadi, E. (2018). Forecasting the global Market Behavior of Pistachio. American Academic Scientific Research Journal for Engineering, Technology and Sciences. 44(1), 191-197. https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/235050634.pdf
  • Ataseven, B. (2013). Forecasting by Using Artifical Neural Networks. Oneri. 10(39), 101-115. https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/download/article-file/ 165799
  • Aydogdu, M.H. Sahin, Z., Sevinc, M.R., Cancelik, M., Dogan, H.P. & Kucuk, N. (2020). Analysis of Recent Trends in Pistachio (Pistacia vera L.) Production in Turkey. International Journal of Humanities and Social Science Invention. 9(3), 40-46. https://www.ijhssi.org/papers/vol9(3)/Series-1/F09 03014046.pdf
  • Bars, T., Ucum I. & Akbay, C. (2018). Turkey Hazelnut Production Projection with ARIMA Model. KSU J. Agric Nat. (Special Issue) 21, 154-160. http://dogadergi.ksu.edu.tr/tr/download/article-file/617211
  • Baser, U., Bozoglu, M., Eroglu N.A. & Topuz, B.K. (2018). Forecasting Chestnut Production and Export of Turkey Using ARIMA Model. Turkish Journal of Forecasting. 2(2), 27-33. https:// dergipark.org.tr/en/download/article-file/622527.
  • Bayram, M. & Gok, Y. (2020). The effects of the War on the Syrian Agricultural Food Industry Potential. Turkish Journal of Agriculture-Food Science and Technology. 8(7), 1448-1462. http://www.agrifood science. org/index.php/TURJAF/article/view/3278n
  • Boshrabadi, H.M. & Javdan, E. (2012). Forecasting World Market Structure of Iran's Pistachio Exports. Journal of Life Sciences. 6(6), 701-707. https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Ogunjimi- Lucas/publication/247158805_Efficient_School_Health_Services_and_Sport_Participation_among_Nigerian_Universities_Undergraduates/links/5d07ba5ba6fdcc35c15545db/Efficient-School-Health-Services-and-Sport-Participation-among-Nigerian-Universities-Undergraduates.pdf#page=120
  • Box, G. E., & Jenkins, G. M. (1973). Some Comments on a Paper by Chatfield and Prothero and on a Review by Kendall. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A (General), 136(3), 337-352. https://www.jstor.org/stable/2344995?seq=1
  • Box, G.E.P., Jenkins, G.M., Reinsel, G.C. & Ljung, G.M. (2016). Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control. Fifth Edition, John Wiley and Sons Inc. Hoboken, New Jersey, USA.
  • Brufau, G., Boatella, J. & Rafecas, M. (2006). Nuts: Source of Energy and Macronutrients. British Journal of Nutrition. 96(S2), S24-S28. https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/british-journal-of-nutrition/article/nuts-source-of-energy-and-macronutrients/AAAEDDA038B08C0A 00C802F00A7F4171
  • Caglar, A., Tomar, O., Vatansever, H. & Ekmekci, E. (2017). Pistachio (Pistacia vera L.) and Its Effects on Human Health. Academic Food Journal. 15(4), 436-447. https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/akademik-gida/issue/33245/370408
  • Celik, S. (2013). Modeling of Production Amount of Nuts Fruit by Using Box-Jenkins Technique. Yuzuncu Yil University Journal of Agricultural Sciences. 23(1), 18-30.
  • Cihan, P. (2021). Forecasting Fully Vaccinated People Against COVID-19 and Examining Future Vaccination Rates for Herd Immunity in the US, Asia, Europe, Africa, South America, and the World. Applied Soft Computing, 111, 107708. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asoc.2021.107708. Accesed Date: 03.06.2022.
  • FAO, (2022). Fruit Production in the World. http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/QC. Accesed Date: 24.04.2022.
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  • Hasmida, H. (2009). Water Quality Trend at the Upper Part of Johor River in Relation to Rainfall and Runoff Pattern. [Master Thesis, University Technology, Faculty of Civil Engineering].
  • Hojjati, M., Noguera-Artiaga, L., Wojdyło, A. & Carbonell-Barrachina, Á.A. (2015). Effects of Microwave Roasting on Physicochemical Properties of Pistachios (Pistaciavera L.). Food Science and Biotechnology, 24(6), 1995-2001. https://link. springer.com/article/10.1007/s10068-015-0263-0
  • ITC, (2022). Trade of Pistachio in 2012-2021 Years. Statistics of International Trade Centre. http://www.trademap.org/country Accesed Date: 24.04.2022.
  • Kadilar, C. (2009). SPSS Introduction to Applied Time Series Analysis, Bizim Buro Publishing House, Second Edition, Ankara, Turkey.
  • Kahyaoglu, T. (2008). Optimization of the Pistachio Nut Roasting Process Using Response Surface Methodology and Gene Expression Programming. LWT-Food Science and Technology. 41(1), 26-33. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0023643807001417
  • Karacan, E. & Ceylan, R.F. (2017). The Analysis of the Effect of Pistachio Price on the Decision of Producers. Kastamonu Üniversity Journal of faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences. (Special Issue) 18(1), 88-100. https://dergipark.org.tr/en/download/article-file/361079
  • Karacan, E. & Ceylan, R.F. (2020). Factors Affecting Pistachio Exports in Turkey, Iran and the USA. International Journal of Agriculture Forestry and Life Sciences. 4(2), 255-262. https://dergipark. org.tr/ en/download/article-file/1399661
  • Kaynar, O. & Tastan, S. (2009). Comparasion of MLP Artifical Neural Network and ARIMA Method in Time Series Analysis. Erciyes University Journal of Economics and Administrative Sciences. (33), 161-172. https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/erciyesiibd/ issue/ 5890/77918
  • Kilic, T.M. & Turhan S. (2020). Modeling of hazelnut export by using Box-Jenkins method and export forecast in Turkey. IBAD Journal of Social Sciences. Special Issue 453-461. https://dergipark.org.tr/ en/download/article-file/1319063
  • Kobu, B. (2017). Production management. 18th Edition. Beta Publishing and Distribution Inc. İstanbul, Turkey. Nurbaki, M., Atli H. S. & Uyak, C. (2021). Pistachio Production in Siirt/Eruh andtheSocio-Economic Status of Producers. Current Studies on Fruit Science, 95-130, Iksad Publications, Turkey. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/357478216_CURRENT-STUDIES-ON-FRUIT-SCIENCE_- _Pistachio_Production_in_SiirtEruh_and_The_Socio-Economic_Status_of_Producers#full-text
  • Oztep, R. & Isin, F. (2023). Türkiye Pistachio Production Estimation with ARMA Model. KSU J. Agric Nat. 26(4), 878-887.
  • Pakravan, M.R. & Kavoosi, K.M. (2011). Future Prospects of Iran, US and Turkey's Pistachio Exports. International Journal of Agricultural Management and Development. 1(3), 181-188. https://ijamad.rasht.iau.ir/article_514187_61c0a855a79b4ef48d1844544e4ce76a.pdf
  • Palabicak, M.A. (2019). Red meat Sector and Equilibrium of Production and Consumption Analysis for the Future in Turkey. [ Master Thesis, Harran University, Institute of Natural and Applied Sciences, Department of Agricultural Economics].
  • Panigrahi, S. and H.S. Behera. 2017. A hybrid ETS–ANN model for time series forecasting. Engineering applications of artificial intelligence. 66, 49-59. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0952197617301550
  • Pinar, V. (2021). Forecasting the Production of the Leading Countries in the Production of Pistachio in the Period of 2020-2025 with the ARIMA model. [Master Thesis, Ataturk University, Institute of Science and Technology, Department of Agricultural Economics]
  • Razavi, S. (2010). Pistachio production: Iran vs the world. In: Zakynthinos G. (ed.). XIV GREMPA Meetingon Pistachios and Almonds. Zaragoza: CIHEAM / FAO /AUA/TEI Kalamatas/NAGREF, (Options Méditerranéennes:Série A. Séminaires Méditerranéens; 94, 275-279). https://www. cabdirect.org/cabdirect/abstract/20113081763
  • Reinsel, G.C. (1994). Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control. Journal of Marketing Research. 14(2), 5561569. https://www.paperpublications.org/ upload/ book/Establishing%20an%20ARMA-21032022-7.pdf
  • Sacti, H. & Kilci, M. (2016). Determination of Future Trends in Turkey Walnut Production, Consumption, Price and Foreign Trade, XII. Agricultural Economics Congress. s. 1301-1310, Isparta, Turkey. 25-27 May 2016, s. 1301.
  • Salami, H. & Mafi, H. (2018). Predicting Export Prices of the Iranian pistachio based on commercial cycles: application of structural time series model. Iranian Journal of Agricultural Economics and Development Research. 49(4), 559-571. file:///C:/Users/User/Downloads/42513970401.pdf.
  • SAS, (2014). SAS 13.2 User’s GuidetheARIMA Procedure. SAS Institute Inc., Cary, NC, USA. https://support.sas.com/documentation/onlinedoc/ets/132/arima.pdf. Accesed Date: 24.12.2021.
  • TURKSTAT, (2022). Turkish Statistical Institute Internet Page. https://data.TURKSTAT. gov.tr/Bulten/Index?p=Crop-Production-Statistics-2021-37249. Accesed Date: 24.04.2022.
  • USDA, (2019-2022a). Global Pistachio Production Hits New Records in 2019/22, Foreign Agricultural Service. https://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/ circulars/TreeNuts.pdf. Accesed Date: 24.04.2022.
  • USDA, (2022b). Fruit and Tree Nuts Yearbook Tables. https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/fruit-and-tree-nuts-data/fruit-and-tree-nuts-yearbook-tables/. Accesed Date: 24.04.2022.
  • Uzundumlu, A. S. & Dilli, M. (2022). Estimating Chicken Meat Productions of Leader Countries for 2019-2025 Years. Ciência Rural. 53(2). http://doi.org/10.1590/0103-8478cr20210477.
  • Uzundumlu, A.S., A. Bilgic, A. & Ertek, N. (2019). Prediction of Hazelnut Production Quantity with the ARIMA Model of Turkey's Provinces Leading Hazelnut Production in the Last Seven Years. Journoul of Akademik Ziraat. 8(Special Issue), 115-126. https://dergipark.org.tr/en/download/article-file/934407
  • Uzundumlu, A.S., Karabacak, T. & Ali, A.(2021). Apricot Production Forecast of the Leading Countries inthePeriod of 2018-2025. Emirates Journal of Food and Agriculture, 33 (8), 682-690. https://www.ejfa.me/index.php/journal/article/view/2744
  • Uzundumlu, A.S., Kurtoglu, S., Şerefoğlu, S. & Algur, Z. (2022). The Role of Turkey in the World Hazelnut Production and Exporting. Emirates Journal of Food and Agriculture, 34 (2), 117-127. https://www.ejfa.me/index.php/journal/article/view/2810
  • Uzundumlu, A.S., Oksuz, M.E. & Kurtoglu, S. (2018). Future of Fig Production in Turkey. Journal of Tekirdag Agricultural Faculty. 15(02), 138-146. https://dergipark.org.tr/en/download/article-file/484884
  • World Bank, (2022). Population Estimates and Projections. https://databank.worldbank.org/ source/population-estimates-and-projections. Accesed Date: 24.04.2022.
  • Xu, P. & Z. Wang. (2014). Country of Origin and Willingness to Pay for Pistachios: A Chinese Case. Agricultural and Food Economics. 2(1), 1-16. https://agrifoodecon.springeropen.com/articles/10.1186/s40100-014-0014-1
  • Yavuz, G.G. (2011). Nuts / Pistachios. TEPGE BAKIŞ, Institute of Agricultural Economics and Policy Development. December 2011/ISSN 1303–8346/ Copy 5, Ankara, Turkey.
  • Yesilyayla, H., (2013). X-12 ARIMA Method for analysis of Socio-Economic Data. [Master Thesis, Pamukkale University. Institute of Science and Technology].
  • Zheng, Z. & Saghaian S.H. (2011). Time-series Analysis of US Pistachio Export Demand in North America. Journal of Food Distribution Research. 42(856-2016-57953), 124-129. file:///C:/Users/User/ Downloads/Zheng_42_1.pdf.
Toplam 53 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil İngilizce
Konular Sürdürülebilir Tarımsal Kalkınma, Tarımsal Yönetimde Pazarlama
Bölüm ARAŞTIRMA MAKALESİ (Research Article)
Yazarlar

Ahmet Semih Uzundumlu 0000-0001-9714-2053

Veysel Pınar 0000-0001-5064-3758

Nur Ertek Tosun 0000-0002-3475-5888

Hediye Kumbasaroğlu 0000-0003-0266-3775

Erken Görünüm Tarihi 2 Temmuz 2024
Yayımlanma Tarihi 17 Eylül 2024
Gönderilme Tarihi 29 Kasım 2023
Kabul Tarihi 11 Şubat 2024
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2024Cilt: 27 Sayı: 5

Kaynak Göster

APA Uzundumlu, A. S., Pınar, V., Ertek Tosun, N., Kumbasaroğlu, H. (2024). Global Pistachio Production Forecasts for 2020–2025. Kahramanmaraş Sütçü İmam Üniversitesi Tarım Ve Doğa Dergisi, 27(5), 1105-1115. https://doi.org/10.18016/ksutarimdoga.vi.1397897
 Kapak Resmi İndir

21082



2022-JIF = 0.500

2022-JCI = 0.170

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