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Türkiye’nin Güney Marmara Bölgesindeki Süt Üreticilerinin İklim Değişikliğinin Etkilerine Yönelik Algıları ve Adaptasyon Stratejileri

Yıl 2024, , 1116 - 1128, 17.09.2024

Damla Özsayın

https://doi.org/10.18016/ksutarimdoga.vi.1400208

Öz

Çalışma, Türkiye'nin Güney Marmara Bölgesindeki süt
üreticilerinin iklim kaynaklı risklere ilişkin algılarını, adaptasyon
stratejilerini ve adaptasyon stratejilerine ilişkin kararlarını etkileyen
faktörleri belirlemeyi amaçlamaktadır. Veriler, oransal örnekleme yöntemiyle 379 süt üreticisinden toplanmıştır. Anketler Ekim-Aralık 2023 tarihleri arasında gerçekleştirilmiştir. Verilerin değerlendirilmesinde tanımlayıcı istatistikler ve probit model analizi kullanılmıştır. Süt üreticilerinin çoğunluğunun şiddetli fırtınaya ilişkin algısı yüksektir. Yem rasyonunu mevsimsel olarak değiştirmek, süt üreticileri tarafından kullanılan en yaygın adaptasyon stratejisidir. Bu stratejiyi, hayvansal üretim faaliyetlerinin çeşitlendirilmesi, hayvancılık sigortası ve yem bitkilerinin çeşitliliği izlemiştir. Bu adaptasyon stratejileri arasında, yem rasyonun mevsimsel olarak değiştirilmesi, araştırma alanında en çok tercih edilen adaptasyon stratejisi iken yem bitkileri çeşitliliği en az seçilen adaptasyon stratejisi olmuştur. Probit modeli sonuçları, süt üreticilerinin yaşının ve hane büyüklüğünün tüm adaptasyon stratejilerine ilişkin kararlarında negatif ve istatistiksel olarak önemli bir etkisinin olduğunu göstermiştir. Bu çalışmanın sonuçları, çoğu süt üreticisinin sıcaklıklardaki artışı ve yağıştaki azalmayı iklimde gözle görülür değişiklikler olarak algıladığını ortaya koymuştur. İklim değişikliğinin olumsuz etkileriyle başa çıkmak için az sayıdaki süt üreticisi gelişmiş tarım uygulamalarını kullanmakta ve birçok süt üreticisi basit adaptasyon önlemlerini kullanmaya devam etmektedir. Sonuç olarak, mevcut çalışmanın bulguları tarımsal araştırmalarda politika/karar vericilere, süt hayvancılığında iklim değişikliğinin etkilerine ilişkin uygulamalara ve literatürdeki yeni çalışmalara ışık tutabilir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Adaptasyon stratejileri Türkiye İklimsel riskler Süt üreticileri Süt sığırcılığı

Kaynakça

  • Abid, M., Scheffran, J., Schneider, U.A. & Elahi, E. (2019). Farmer perceptions of climate change observed trends and adaptation of agriculture in Pakistan. Environmental Management, 63(1), 110-123. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00267-018-1113-7
  • Akyüz, Y. & Atış, E. (2018). Küçük Menderes Havzasında iklim değişikliğinin olası etkileri ve üreticilerin konuya ilişkin farkındalıkları. KSÜ Tarım ve Doğa Dergisi, 21(Özel Sayı), 109-115. https://doi.org/10.18016/ksutarimdoga.vi.472836
  • Ali, M.F. & Rose, S. (2021). Farmers’ perception and adaptations to climate change: findings from three agroecological zones of Punjab, Pakistan. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 28(12), 14844-14853. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-020-11472-x
  • Amamou, H., Ben Sassi, M., Aouadi, H., Khemiri, H., Mahouachi, M., Bechers, Y. & Hammami, H. (2018). Climate change-related risks and adaptation strategies as perceived in dairy cattle farming systems in Tunisia. Climate Risk Management, 20, 38-49. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2018.03.004
  • Anonymous, (2022). Statistical indicators. Records of Directorate of Provincial Agriculture and Forestry. Ankara, Türkiye.
  • Ata, M., Altarawneh, M. & Al-Masad, M. (2021). Climate change perceptions and adaptations for dairy cattle farmers in Jordan: a case study in North East Region-Al-Dhulel Area. New Medit, 2, 97-105. https://doi.org/10.30682/nm2102g
  • Bai, J., Li, K. & Lu, L. (2016). Estimation and Inference of FAVAR Models. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 34(4), 620-641. https://doi.org/10.1080/07350015.2015.1111222
  • Baloch, Z.A., Tan, Q. & Fahad, S. (2022). Analyzing farm households’ perception and choice of adaptation strategies towards climate change impacts: a case study of vulnerable households in an emerging Asian region. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 29, 57306-57316. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-022-19895-4
  • Bryan, E., Ringler, C., Okoba, B., Roncoli, C., Silvestri, S. & Herrero, M. (2013). Adapting agriculture to climate change in Kenya: household strategies and determinants. Journal of Environmental Management, 114, 26-35.
  • Deressa, T.T., Hassan, R.M., Ringler, C., Alemu, T. & Yesuf, M. (2009). Determinants of farmers’ choice of adaptation methods to climate change in the Nile Basin of Ethiopia. Global Environmental Change, 19, 248-255. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha. 2009.01.002
  • Eştürk, Ö. & Mert, N. (2022). Analyzing the effects of global climate change on grain and forage crop productivity in Ardahan province with the ARDL model. KSU Journal of Agriculture and Nature, 25 (Suppl 2), 506-514. https://doi.org/10.18016/ ksutarimdoga.vi.1011936
  • Fahad, S. & Wang, J. (2018). Farmers’ risk perception, vulnerability, and adaptation to climate change in rural Pakistan. Land Use Policy, 79, 301-309. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2018.08.018
  • Fahad, S. & Wang, J. (2020). Climate change, vulnerability, and its impacts in rural Pakistan: a review. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 27, 1334-1338. https://doi.org/10.1007/ s11356-019-06878-1
  • GMKA, South Marmara Development Agency, (2014). TR22 South Marmara regional plan (2014-2023). South Marmara development agency Balıkesir-Türkiye. https://www.gmka.gov.tr/dokumanlar/ yayinlar/TR22-South-Marmara-Region-2014-2023-Regional-Plan.pdf (Last accessed on 2021 Dec 11).
  • Hassan, R. & Nhemachena, C. (2008). Determinants of African farmers’ strategies for adapting to climate change, Multinomial choice analysis. African Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, 2(1), 83-104.
  • Hayran, S., Duru, S., Kapur, B., Gul, A. & Turgut, Y.S. (2021). Farmers’ perception regarding climate change in Southern Turkey: the case of the Mersin province. New Medit, 1, 71-84. https://doi.org/ 10.30682/nm2101e
  • IPCC, (2017). Data Distrubition Center. Intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC) report, Switzerland. http://www.ipccdata.org (Last accessed on 2021Oct 15).
  • Jeder, H., Abdelhamid, A. & Salah, A. (2021). Smallholder farmers' perceptions and adaptation strategies to mitigate the effect of climate change in the oases of South-Eastern Tunisia. New Medit, 5, 1-15. https://doi.org/10.30682/nm2105a
  • Kandlikar, M. & Risbey, J. (2000). Agricultural impacts of climate change, if adaptation is the answer, what is the question? Climatic Change, 45(3), 529-539. https://doi.org/10.1023/ A:1005546716266
  • Karimi, V., Karami, E. & Keshavarz, M. (2018). Vulnerability and adaptation of livestock producers to climate variability and change. Rangeland Ecology & Management, 71(2), 175-184.
  • Koç, G. & Uzmay, A. (2019). The effect of climate change on the cost of dairy farms in Turkey; a case study of Thrace Region. New Medit, 18(3), 31-46. http://dx.doi.org/10.30682/nm1903c
  • Koç, G. & Uzmay, A. (2021). Determinants of dairy farmers’ likelihood of climate change adaptation in the Thrace Region of Turkey. Environment, Development and Sustainability, 24, 9907-9928. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-021-01850-x
  • Knowler, D. & Bradshaw, B. (2007). Farmers’ adoption of conservation agriculture: a review and synthesis of recent research. Food Policy, 32(1), 25-48. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2006.01.003
  • Koyuncu, M. (2017). Global climate change and animal husbandry. Selcuk Journal of Agriculture and Food Sciences, 31(2), 98-106.
  • Lin, J. (1991). Education and innovation adoption in agriculture: evidence from hybrid rice in China. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 73(3), 713-723.
  • Mabe, F.N., Sienso, G. & Donkoh, S. (2014). Determinants of choice of climate change adaptation strategies in Northern Ghana. Research in Applied Economics, 6(4), 75-94. http://dx.doi.org/10.5296/rae.v6i4.6121
  • Nabikolo, D., Bashaasha, B., Mangheni, M. & Majaliwa, J. (2012). Determinants of climate change adaptation among male and female-headed farm households in eastern Uganda. African Crop Science Journal, 20, 203-212.
  • Newbold, P. (1995). Statistics for business and economics. Prentice Hall Inc.
  • Oğuz, C. & Karakayacı, Z. (2017). Tarım ekonomisinde araştırma ve örnekleme metodolojisi, Konya: Atlas Akademi.
  • Pakdemirli, B. (2019). Comparison of the current situation of agricultural cooperatives in the World and Turkey. ANADOLU Journal of Aegean Agricultural Research Institute (AARI), 29(2), 177-187.
  • Peng, C.Y.J., Lee, K.L. & Ingersoll, G.M. (2002). An introduction to logistic regression analysis and reporting. Journal of Educational Research, 96(1), 3-14. https://doi.org/10.1080/00220670209598786
  • RTMEU, (2018). Seventh national communication of Turkey under The United Nations Framework Convention on climate change. Republic of Turkey Ministry of Environment and Urbanization (RTMEU). Turkey. https://unfccc.int/sites/default/ files/resource/496715_Turkey-NC7-1-7th%20 National %20Communication%20of%20Turkey.pdf (Last accessed on 2021 Dec 15).
  • Sima, M., Popovici, E.A., Balteanu, D., Micu, D.M., Kucsicsa, G., Dragota, C. & Grigorescu, I. (2015). A farmer-based analysis of climate change adaptation options of agriculture in Baragan Plain Romania. Earth Perspectives, 2(5), 1-21. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40322-015-0031-6
  • StataCorp, (2005). Stata longitudinal/panel data reference manual. Texas: College Station TX: StataCorp LP.
  • Tiet, T., To-The, N. & Nguyen-Anh, T. (2022). Farmers’ behaviours and attitudes toward climate change adaptation: evidence from Vietnamese smallholder farmers. Environment, Development and Sustainability, 1-26. https://doi.org/10.1007/ s10668-021-02030-7
  • TURKSTAT, (2022). Statistical indicators. Turkish Statistical Institute. Agricultural Statistics Annual Report, Ankara. https://data.tuik.gov.tr/ Kategori/GetKategori?p=tarim-111&dil=2 (Last accessed on 2021 Dec 10). Xu, J. & Long, J.S. (2005). Confidence intervals for predicted outcomes in regression models for categorical outcomes. Stata Journal, 5(4), 537-559. https://doi.org/10.1177/1536867X0500500405
  • Yaslıoğlu, E. & İlhan, H. (2016). An analysis of dairy cattle production in Southern Marmara in terms of heat stress. Journal of Tekirdag Agricultural Faculty, 13(4), 12-19.
  • Zhang, C., Jin, J., Kuang, F., Ning, J., Wan, X. & Guan, T. (2020). Farmers’ perceptions of climate change and adaptation behaviour in Wushen Banner, China. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 27, 26484-26494. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-020-09048-w

Dairy Farmers’ Perceptions and Adaptation Strategies Towards the Effects of Climate Change in Southern Marmara Region of Türkiye

Yıl 2024, , 1116 - 1128, 17.09.2024

Damla Özsayın

https://doi.org/10.18016/ksutarimdoga.vi.1400208

Öz

The study aims to determine dairy farmers' perceptions of
Climate-related risks, their adaptation strategies, and the factors affecting their decisions about adaptation strategies in the Southern Marmara Region of Türkiye. Data was collected from 379 dairy farmers by proportional sampling method. The survey was performed between October and December 2023. Descriptive statistics and probit models were used in the evaluation of the data. The majority of dairy farmers had a high perception of heavy storms. Changing the feed ratio seasonally was the most widespread adaptation strategy employed by dairy farmers. It was followed by diversification of animal production activities (sheep and goat), livestock insurance, and diversity of feed crops. Among these adaptation strategies, changing the feed ratio seasonally was the most preferred adaptation strategy in the study area. In contrast, the diversity of feed crops was the least chosen adaptation strategy. The probit model results showed that dairy farmers' age and household size had a negative and statistically significant impact on their decisions about all adaptation strategies. These results of the study stated that most dairy farmers perceived the rise in temperatures and decline in rainfall as noticeable changes in climate. Few dairy farmers used advanced agricultural applications to deal with the negative impacts of climatic change and many dairy farmers continued use to simple adaptation measures. As a result, the present study findings can shed light on policy/decision makers in agricultural research, practices regarding the climate change impact on dairy farming, and new studies in the literature.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Adaptation strategies Climate-related risks Dairy farmers Dairy farming Türkiye

Kaynakça

  • Abid, M., Scheffran, J., Schneider, U.A. & Elahi, E. (2019). Farmer perceptions of climate change observed trends and adaptation of agriculture in Pakistan. Environmental Management, 63(1), 110-123. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00267-018-1113-7
  • Akyüz, Y. & Atış, E. (2018). Küçük Menderes Havzasında iklim değişikliğinin olası etkileri ve üreticilerin konuya ilişkin farkındalıkları. KSÜ Tarım ve Doğa Dergisi, 21(Özel Sayı), 109-115. https://doi.org/10.18016/ksutarimdoga.vi.472836
  • Ali, M.F. & Rose, S. (2021). Farmers’ perception and adaptations to climate change: findings from three agroecological zones of Punjab, Pakistan. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 28(12), 14844-14853. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-020-11472-x
  • Amamou, H., Ben Sassi, M., Aouadi, H., Khemiri, H., Mahouachi, M., Bechers, Y. & Hammami, H. (2018). Climate change-related risks and adaptation strategies as perceived in dairy cattle farming systems in Tunisia. Climate Risk Management, 20, 38-49. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2018.03.004
  • Anonymous, (2022). Statistical indicators. Records of Directorate of Provincial Agriculture and Forestry. Ankara, Türkiye.
  • Ata, M., Altarawneh, M. & Al-Masad, M. (2021). Climate change perceptions and adaptations for dairy cattle farmers in Jordan: a case study in North East Region-Al-Dhulel Area. New Medit, 2, 97-105. https://doi.org/10.30682/nm2102g
  • Bai, J., Li, K. & Lu, L. (2016). Estimation and Inference of FAVAR Models. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 34(4), 620-641. https://doi.org/10.1080/07350015.2015.1111222
  • Baloch, Z.A., Tan, Q. & Fahad, S. (2022). Analyzing farm households’ perception and choice of adaptation strategies towards climate change impacts: a case study of vulnerable households in an emerging Asian region. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 29, 57306-57316. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-022-19895-4
  • Bryan, E., Ringler, C., Okoba, B., Roncoli, C., Silvestri, S. & Herrero, M. (2013). Adapting agriculture to climate change in Kenya: household strategies and determinants. Journal of Environmental Management, 114, 26-35.
  • Deressa, T.T., Hassan, R.M., Ringler, C., Alemu, T. & Yesuf, M. (2009). Determinants of farmers’ choice of adaptation methods to climate change in the Nile Basin of Ethiopia. Global Environmental Change, 19, 248-255. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha. 2009.01.002
  • Eştürk, Ö. & Mert, N. (2022). Analyzing the effects of global climate change on grain and forage crop productivity in Ardahan province with the ARDL model. KSU Journal of Agriculture and Nature, 25 (Suppl 2), 506-514. https://doi.org/10.18016/ ksutarimdoga.vi.1011936
  • Fahad, S. & Wang, J. (2018). Farmers’ risk perception, vulnerability, and adaptation to climate change in rural Pakistan. Land Use Policy, 79, 301-309. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2018.08.018
  • Fahad, S. & Wang, J. (2020). Climate change, vulnerability, and its impacts in rural Pakistan: a review. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 27, 1334-1338. https://doi.org/10.1007/ s11356-019-06878-1
  • GMKA, South Marmara Development Agency, (2014). TR22 South Marmara regional plan (2014-2023). South Marmara development agency Balıkesir-Türkiye. https://www.gmka.gov.tr/dokumanlar/ yayinlar/TR22-South-Marmara-Region-2014-2023-Regional-Plan.pdf (Last accessed on 2021 Dec 11).
  • Hassan, R. & Nhemachena, C. (2008). Determinants of African farmers’ strategies for adapting to climate change, Multinomial choice analysis. African Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, 2(1), 83-104.
  • Hayran, S., Duru, S., Kapur, B., Gul, A. & Turgut, Y.S. (2021). Farmers’ perception regarding climate change in Southern Turkey: the case of the Mersin province. New Medit, 1, 71-84. https://doi.org/ 10.30682/nm2101e
  • IPCC, (2017). Data Distrubition Center. Intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC) report, Switzerland. http://www.ipccdata.org (Last accessed on 2021Oct 15).
  • Jeder, H., Abdelhamid, A. & Salah, A. (2021). Smallholder farmers' perceptions and adaptation strategies to mitigate the effect of climate change in the oases of South-Eastern Tunisia. New Medit, 5, 1-15. https://doi.org/10.30682/nm2105a
  • Kandlikar, M. & Risbey, J. (2000). Agricultural impacts of climate change, if adaptation is the answer, what is the question? Climatic Change, 45(3), 529-539. https://doi.org/10.1023/ A:1005546716266
  • Karimi, V., Karami, E. & Keshavarz, M. (2018). Vulnerability and adaptation of livestock producers to climate variability and change. Rangeland Ecology & Management, 71(2), 175-184.
  • Koç, G. & Uzmay, A. (2019). The effect of climate change on the cost of dairy farms in Turkey; a case study of Thrace Region. New Medit, 18(3), 31-46. http://dx.doi.org/10.30682/nm1903c
  • Koç, G. & Uzmay, A. (2021). Determinants of dairy farmers’ likelihood of climate change adaptation in the Thrace Region of Turkey. Environment, Development and Sustainability, 24, 9907-9928. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-021-01850-x
  • Knowler, D. & Bradshaw, B. (2007). Farmers’ adoption of conservation agriculture: a review and synthesis of recent research. Food Policy, 32(1), 25-48. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2006.01.003
  • Koyuncu, M. (2017). Global climate change and animal husbandry. Selcuk Journal of Agriculture and Food Sciences, 31(2), 98-106.
  • Lin, J. (1991). Education and innovation adoption in agriculture: evidence from hybrid rice in China. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 73(3), 713-723.
  • Mabe, F.N., Sienso, G. & Donkoh, S. (2014). Determinants of choice of climate change adaptation strategies in Northern Ghana. Research in Applied Economics, 6(4), 75-94. http://dx.doi.org/10.5296/rae.v6i4.6121
  • Nabikolo, D., Bashaasha, B., Mangheni, M. & Majaliwa, J. (2012). Determinants of climate change adaptation among male and female-headed farm households in eastern Uganda. African Crop Science Journal, 20, 203-212.
  • Newbold, P. (1995). Statistics for business and economics. Prentice Hall Inc.
  • Oğuz, C. & Karakayacı, Z. (2017). Tarım ekonomisinde araştırma ve örnekleme metodolojisi, Konya: Atlas Akademi.
  • Pakdemirli, B. (2019). Comparison of the current situation of agricultural cooperatives in the World and Turkey. ANADOLU Journal of Aegean Agricultural Research Institute (AARI), 29(2), 177-187.
  • Peng, C.Y.J., Lee, K.L. & Ingersoll, G.M. (2002). An introduction to logistic regression analysis and reporting. Journal of Educational Research, 96(1), 3-14. https://doi.org/10.1080/00220670209598786
  • RTMEU, (2018). Seventh national communication of Turkey under The United Nations Framework Convention on climate change. Republic of Turkey Ministry of Environment and Urbanization (RTMEU). Turkey. https://unfccc.int/sites/default/ files/resource/496715_Turkey-NC7-1-7th%20 National %20Communication%20of%20Turkey.pdf (Last accessed on 2021 Dec 15).
  • Sima, M., Popovici, E.A., Balteanu, D., Micu, D.M., Kucsicsa, G., Dragota, C. & Grigorescu, I. (2015). A farmer-based analysis of climate change adaptation options of agriculture in Baragan Plain Romania. Earth Perspectives, 2(5), 1-21. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40322-015-0031-6
  • StataCorp, (2005). Stata longitudinal/panel data reference manual. Texas: College Station TX: StataCorp LP.
  • Tiet, T., To-The, N. & Nguyen-Anh, T. (2022). Farmers’ behaviours and attitudes toward climate change adaptation: evidence from Vietnamese smallholder farmers. Environment, Development and Sustainability, 1-26. https://doi.org/10.1007/ s10668-021-02030-7
  • TURKSTAT, (2022). Statistical indicators. Turkish Statistical Institute. Agricultural Statistics Annual Report, Ankara. https://data.tuik.gov.tr/ Kategori/GetKategori?p=tarim-111&dil=2 (Last accessed on 2021 Dec 10). Xu, J. & Long, J.S. (2005). Confidence intervals for predicted outcomes in regression models for categorical outcomes. Stata Journal, 5(4), 537-559. https://doi.org/10.1177/1536867X0500500405
  • Yaslıoğlu, E. & İlhan, H. (2016). An analysis of dairy cattle production in Southern Marmara in terms of heat stress. Journal of Tekirdag Agricultural Faculty, 13(4), 12-19.
  • Zhang, C., Jin, J., Kuang, F., Ning, J., Wan, X. & Guan, T. (2020). Farmers’ perceptions of climate change and adaptation behaviour in Wushen Banner, China. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 27, 26484-26494. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-020-09048-w
Toplam 38 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil İngilizce
Konular Çiftlik İşletmeleri
Bölüm ARAŞTIRMA MAKALESİ (Research Article)
Yazarlar

Damla Özsayın 0000-0003-1127-267X

Erken Görünüm Tarihi 2 Temmuz 2024
Yayımlanma Tarihi 17 Eylül 2024
Gönderilme Tarihi 4 Aralık 2023
Kabul Tarihi 28 Mart 2024
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2024

Kaynak Göster

APA Özsayın, D. (2024). Dairy Farmers’ Perceptions and Adaptation Strategies Towards the Effects of Climate Change in Southern Marmara Region of Türkiye. Kahramanmaraş Sütçü İmam Üniversitesi Tarım Ve Doğa Dergisi, 27(5), 1116-1128. https://doi.org/10.18016/ksutarimdoga.vi.1400208

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2022-JCI = 0.170

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